Random coin tossing

Summary. A sequence of heads and tails is produced by repeatedly selecting a coin from two possible coins, and tossing it. The second coin is tossed at renewal times in a renewal process, and the first coin is tossed at all other times. The first coin is fair (Prob(heads)=1/2), and the second coin is known either to be fair, or to have known biasθ∈(0,1] (Prob(heads) ). Letting u _k := Prob (There is a renewal at time k), we show that if ∑ _{k =0} ^∞ u _k ²=∞, we can determine, using only the sequence of heads and tails produced, if the second coin had bias θ or 0. If , we show that this is not possible. Received: 20 November 1996 / In revised form: 20 February 1997     

A canonical setting and separating times for continuous local martingales

The notion of a separating time for a pair of measures on a filtered space is helpful for studying problems of (local) absolute continuity and singularity of measures. In this paper, we describe a certain canonical setting for continuous local martingales (abbreviated below as CLMs) and find an explicit form of separating times for CLMs in this setting.     

Lagging and leading coupled continuous time random walks, renewal times and their joint limits

Subordinating a random walk to a renewal process yields a continuous time random walk (CTRW), which models diffusion and anomalous diffusion. Transition densities of scaling limits of power law CTRWs have been shown to solve fractional Fokker-Planck equations. We consider limits of CTRWs which arise when both waiting times and jumps are taken from an infinitesimal triangular array. Two different limit processes are identified when waiting times precede jumps or follow jumps, respectively, together with two limit processes corresponding to the renewal times. We calculate the joint law of all four limit processes evaluated at a fixed time t.     

Multi-operator scaling random fields

In this paper, we define and study a new class of random fields called harmonizable multi-operator scaling stable random fields. These fields satisfy a local asymptotic operator scaling property which generalizes both the local asymptotic self-similarity property and the operator scaling property. Actually, they locally look like operator scaling random fields, whose order is allowed to vary along the sample paths. We also give an upper bound of their modulus of continuity. Their pointwise Hölder exponents may also vary with the position x and their anisotropic behavior is driven by a matrix which may also depend on x.     

Empirical distributions in marked point processes

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the empirical distribution function derived from a stationary marked point process when a convex sampling window is expanding without bounds in all directions. We consider a random field model which assumes that the marks and the points are independent and admits dependencies between the marks. The main result is the weak convergence of the empirical process under strong mixing conditions on both independent components of the model. Applying an approximation principle weak convergence can be also shown for appropriately weighted empirical process defined from a stationary d-dimensional germ-grain process with dependent grains.     

Absolute continuity of the invariant measure in piecewise deterministic Markov Processes having degenerate jumps

We consider piecewise deterministic Markov processes with degenerate transition kernels of the house-of-cards- type. We use a splitting scheme based on jump times to prove the absolute continuity, as well as some regularity, of the invariant measure of the process. Finally, we obtain finer results on the regularity of the one-dimensional marginals of the invariant measure, using integration by parts with respect to the jump times.     

Asymptotic results for time-changed Lévy processes sampled at hitting times

We provide asymptotic results for time-changed Lévy processes sampled at random instants. The sampling times are given by the first hitting times of symmetric barriers, whose distance with respect to the starting point is equal to ε. For a wide class of Lévy processes, we introduce a renormalization depending on ε, under which the Lévy process converges in law to an α-stable process as ε goes to 0. The convergence is extended to moments of hitting times and overshoots. These results can be used to build high frequency statistical procedures. As examples, we construct consistent estimators of the time change and, in the case of the CGMY process, of the Blumenthal-Getoor index. Convergence rates and a central limit theorem for suitable functionals of the increments of the observed process are established under additional assumptions.     

Distance de Hellinger-Kakutani des lois correspondant à deux processus à accroissements indépendants

Summary In this paper we calculate Hellinger integrals of order for the distribution laws of processes with independent increments. We consider the problems of absolute continuity, mutual singularity and contiguity in further applications. By using Hellinger processes the above problems can be treated in a new systematic manner.

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Distance de Hellinger-Kakutani des lois correspondant à deux processus à accroissements indépendants

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Les auteurs tiennet à remercier J.Jacod et les referees: leurs remarques ont permis d'améliorer la première version de ce texte.     

Beyond the Poisson renewal process: A tutorial survey

After sketching the basic principles of renewal theory and recalling the classical Poisson process, we discuss two renewal processes characterized by waiting time laws with the same power asymptotics defined by special functions of Mittag–Leffler and of Wright type. We compare these three processes with each other.     

The set-indexed Lévy process: Stationarity,Markov and sample paths properties

We present a satisfactory definition of the important class of Lévy processes indexed by a general collection of sets. We use a new definition for increment stationarity of set-indexed processes to obtain different characterizations of this class. As an example, the set-indexed compound Poisson process is introduced. The set-indexed Lévy process is characterized by infinitely divisible laws and a Lévy–Khintchine representation. Moreover, the following concepts are discussed: projections on flows, Markov properties, and pointwise continuity. Finally the study of sample paths leads to a Lévy–Itô decomposition. As a corollary, the semi-martingale property is proved.     

On the most visited sites by a symmetric stable process

Summary. At time t, the most visited site of a linear Brownian motion is defined as the point which realises the supremum of the local times at time t. Let V be the time indexed process of the most visited sites by a linear Brownian motion. We show that every value is polar for V. Those results are extended from Brownian motion to symmetric stable processes, and then to the absolute value of a symmetric stable process. Received: 1 March 1996 / In revised form: 17 October 1996     

The Sparre Andersen Risk Process with Investment and Debit Interest

In this paper, we study absolute ruin problems for the Sparre Andersen risk process with generalized Erlang()-distributed inter-claim times, investment and debit interest. We first give a system of integro-differential equations with certain boundary conditions satisfied by the expected discounted penalty function at absolute ruin. Second, we obtain a defective renewal equation under some special cases, then based on the defective renewal equation we derive two asymptotic results for the expected discounted penalty function when the initial surplus tends to infinity for the light-tailed claims and heavy-tailed claims, respectively. Finally, we investigate some explicit solutions and numerical results for generalized Erlang(2) inter-claim times and exponential claims.     

Fluid limits of many-server queues with abandonments,general service and continuous patience time distributions

This paper extends the works of Kang and Ramanan (2010) and Kaspi and Ramanan (2011), removing the hypothesis of absolute continuity of the service requirement and patience time distributions. We consider a many-server queueing system in which customers enter service in the order of arrival in a non-idling manner and where reneging is considerate. Similarly to Kang and Ramanan (2010), the dynamics of the system are represented in terms of a process that describes the total number of customers in the system as well as two measure-valued processes that record the age in service of each of the customers being served and the “potential” waiting times. When the number of servers goes to infinity, fluid limit is established for this triple of processes. The convergence is in the sense of probability and the limit is characterized by an integral equation.     

Central limit theorems for realized volatility under hitting times of an irregular grid

We consider a continuous semi-martingale sampled at hitting times of an irregular grid. The goal of this work is to analyze the asymptotic behavior of the realized volatility under this rather natural observation scheme. This framework strongly differs from the well understood situations when the sampling times are deterministic or when the grid is regular. Indeed, neither Gaussian approximations nor symmetry properties can be used. In this setting, as the distance between two consecutive barriers tends to zero, we establish central limit theorems for the normalized error of the realized volatility. In particular, we show that there is no bias in the limiting process.     

时间相依更新风险模型中无限时绝对破产概率的渐近性

本文考虑了两类时间相依且带常利率和常值保费收入率的更新风险模型的无限时绝对破产概率, 其中索赔额及其到达时间间隔构成独立同分布的随机对列, 以及每个随机对遵循某种相依结构. 基于此, 当索赔额分布属于R_-∞∩J(γ), γ > 0 分布族时, 我们分别得到了两类时间相依结构下的无限时绝对破产概率的渐近公式和渐近上界.     

Absolute continuity of some semi-selfdecomposable distributions and self-similar measures

P.S. numbers are introduced in relation to absolute continuity of some infinite Bernoulli convolutions. Absolute continuity and continuous singularity of some semi-selfdecomposable distributions are studied as marginal distributions of subordinators. It is shown that these properties are widely different according as their spans are P.V. numbers or the reciprocals of P.S. numbers. A simple example of a subordinator whose distribution is continuous singular for small time and absolutely continuous for large time is given. Absolute continuity of convolutions of multidimensional homogeneous self-similar measures are also discussed. Received: 27 December 1998 / Revised version: 20 August 1999 / Published online: 31 May 2000     

On the Gerber-Shiu function and change of measure

We consider several models for the surplus of an insurance company mainly under some light-tail assumptions. We are interested in the expected discounted penalty at ruin. By a change of measure we remove the discounting, which simplifies the expression. This leads to (defective) renewal equations as they had been found by different methods in the literature. If we use the change of measure such that ruin becomes certain, the renewal equations simplify to ordinary renewal equations. This helps to discuss the asymptotics as the initial capital goes to infinity. For phase-type claim sizes, explicit formulae can be derived.     

True Antecedents

In this note I discuss what seems to be a new kind of counterexample to Lewis’s account of counterfactuals. A coin is to be tossed twice. I bet on ‘Two heads’, and I win. Common sense says that (1) is false. But Lewis’s theory says that it is true. (1) If at least one head had come up, I would have won.

Asymptotic behavior of the quadratic variation of the sum of two Hermite processes of consecutive orders

Hermite processes are self-similar processes with stationary increments which appear as limits of normalized sums of random variables with long range dependence. The Hermite process of order 1 is fractional Brownian motion and the Hermite process of order 2 is the Rosenblatt process. We consider here the sum of two Hermite processes of orders q≥1$q\ge 1$ and q+1$q+1$ and of different Hurst parameters. We then study its quadratic variations at different scales. This is akin to a wavelet decomposition. We study both the cases where the Hermite processes are dependent and where they are independent. In the dependent case, we show that the quadratic variation, suitably normalized, converges either to a normal or to a Rosenblatt distribution, whatever the order of the original Hermite processes.