The tail empirical process for long memory stochastic volatility sequences

This paper describes the limiting behaviour of tail empirical processes associated with long memory stochastic volatility models. We show that such a process has dichotomous behaviour, according to an interplay between the Hurst parameter and the tail index. On the other hand, the tail empirical process with random levels never suffers from long memory. This is very desirable from a practical point of view, since such a process may be used to construct the Hill estimator of the tail index. To prove our results we need to establish new results for regularly varying distributions, which may be of independent interest.     

Likelihood Based Confidence Intervals for the Tail Index

For the estimation of the tail index of a heavy tailed distribution, one of the well-known estimators is the Hill estimator (Hill, 1975). One obvious way to construct a confidence interval for the tail index is via the normal approximation of the Hill estimator. In this paper we apply both the empirical likelihood method and the parametric likelihood method to obtaining confidence intervals for the tail index. Our limited simulation study indicates that the normal approximation method is worse than the other two methods in terms of coverage probability, and the empirical likelihood method and the parametric likelihood method are comparable.     

Strong Domain of Attraction of Extreme Generalized Order Statistics

It is a well-known result in extreme value theory that the von Mises conditions imply the strong convergence of extreme order statistics. We extend this result to extreme generalized order statistics. A characterization of strong domains of attraction of joint distributions of a fixed number of extreme generalized order statistics by means of the corresponding result for generalized maxima is given. In particular, we determine the asymptotic joint distribution of (upper and lower) extreme generalized order statistics. Finally, we show that the Hill estimator based on extreme generalized order statistics is asymptotic normal.     

Jump tail dependence in Lévy copula models

This paper investigates the dependence of extreme jumps in multivariate Lévy processes. We introduce a measure called jump tail dependence, defined as the probability of observing a large jump in one component of a process given a concurrent large jump in another component. We show that this measure is determined by the Lévy copula alone and that it is independent of marginal Lévy processes. We derive a consistent nonparametric estimator for jump tail dependence and establish its asymptotic distribution. Regarding the economic relevance of the measure, a simulation study illustrates that jump tail dependence has a substantial impact on financial portfolio distributions and optimal portfolio weights.     

Estimation of the conditional tail index using a smoothed local Hill estimator

For heavy-tailed distributions, the so-called tail index is an important parameter that controls the behavior of the tail distribution and is thus of primary interest to estimate extreme quantiles. In this paper, the estimation of the tail index is considered in the presence of a finite-dimensional random covariate. Uniform weak consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator are established and some illustrations on simulations are provided.     

基于二项分布随机增长的无标度网络

提出—个具有随机增长的无标度网络模型．该模型的演化规则仍然是BA模型的增长和择优连接,但是每一时间间隔添加到网络中的边数是—个具有二项分布的随机变量．通过率方程方法,本文证明了该网络的度分布具有幂律尾部,该模型生成了—个无标度网络．     

Asymptotic theory for the empirical Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measure

Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measures is a recently introduced class of risk measures which includes, as its minimal member, the Tail Value-at-Risk (T-VaR)—T-VaR arguably the most popular risk measure in global insurance regulation. In applications often one has to estimate the risk measure given a random sample from an unknown distribution. The distribution could either be truly unknown or could be the distribution of a complex function of economic and idiosyncratic variables with the complexity of the function rendering indeterminable its distribution. Hence statistical procedures for the estimation of Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measures are a key requirement for their use in practice. A natural estimator of the Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measure is the Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measure of the empirical distribution, but its statistical properties have not yet been explored in detail. The main goal of this article is to both establish the strong consistency of this estimator and to derive weak convergence limits for this estimator. We also conduct a simulation study to lend insight into the sample sizes required for these asymptotic limits to take hold.     

A Location Invariant Hill-Type Estimator

The Hill's estimator (Hill, 1975) has been largely used in extreme value theory in order to estimate the tail index associated to a distribution function with a positive index. One of the criticisms to its use is the possible associated bias, dependent on the top portion of the original sample used, and also the fact that it is not location invariant. Here, a new Hill-type estimator is studied, which is location invariant. This new estimator is based on the original Hill's estimator, but is made location invariant by a random shift. Its asymptotic distributional behavior is derived, in a semiparametric setup. A comparative simulation study is also presented for several models, following an appropriate adaptive procedure.     

Multivariate Regular Variation of Discrete Mass Functions with Applications to Preferential Attachment Networks

Regular variation of a multivariate measure with a Lebesgue density implies the regular variation of its density provided the density satisfies some regularity conditions. Unlike the univariate case, the converse also requires regularity conditions. We extend these arguments to discrete mass functions and their associated measures using the concept that the mass function can be embedded in a joint density function with continuous arguments. We give two different conditions, monotonicity and convergence on the unit sphere, both of which can make the discrete function embeddable. Our results are then applied to the preferential attachment network model, and we conclude that the joint mass function of in- and out-degree is embeddable and thus regularly varying.     

Locally Adaptive Wavelet Empirical Bayes Estimation of a Location Parameter

The traditional empirical Bayes (EB) model is considered with the parameter being a location parameter, in the situation when the Bayes estimator has a finite degree of smoothness and, possibly, jump discontinuities at several points. A nonlinear wavelet EB estimator based on wavelets with bounded supports is constructed, and it is shown that a finite number of jump discontinuities in the Bayes estimator do not affect the rate of convergence of the prior risk of the EB estimator to zero. It is also demonstrated that the estimator adjusts to the degree of smoothness of the Bayes estimator, locally, so that outside the neighborhoods of the points of discontinuities, the posterior risk has a high rate of convergence to zero. Hence, the technique suggested in the paper provides estimators which are significantly superior in several respects to those constructed earlier.     

Second order properties of distribution tails and estimation of tail exponents in random difference equations

According to a celebrated result of Kesten (Acta Math 131:207–248, 1973), random difference equations have a power-law distribution tail in the asymptotic sense. Empirical evidence shows that classical estimators of tail exponent of random difference equations, such as Hill estimator, are extremely biased for larger values of tail exponents. It is argued in this work that the bias occurs because the power-tail region is too far in the tail from a practical perspective. This is supported by analysis of a few examples where a stationary distribution of random difference equation is known explicitly, and by proving a weaker form of the so-called second order regular variation of distribution tails of random difference equations, which measures deviations from the asymptotic power tail. The latter, in particular, suggests a specific second order term for a distribution tail. Estimation of tail exponents can be adapted by taking this second order term into account. One such method available in the literature is examined, and a new, simple, regression type estimator is proposed. Simulation study shows that the proposed estimator works very well. ARCH models of interest in Finance and multiplicative cascades used in Physics are considered as motivating examples throughout the work. Extension to multidimensional random difference equations with nonnegative entries is also considered.     

On the estimation of entropy

Motivated by recent work of Joe (1989,Ann. Inst. Statist. Math.,41, 683–697), we introduce estimators of entropy and describe their properties. We study the effects of tail behaviour, distribution smoothness and dimensionality on convergence properties. In particular, we argue that root-n consistency of entropy estimation requires appropriate assumptions about each of these three features. Our estimators are different from Joe's, and may be computed without numerical integration, but it can be shown that the same interaction of tail behaviour, smoothness and dimensionality also determines the convergence rate of Joe's estimator. We study both histogram and kernel estimators of entropy, and in each case suggest empirical methods for choosing the smoothing parameter.     

Empirical tail conditional allocation and its consistency under minimal assumptions

Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics - Under minimal assumptions, we prove that an empirical estimator of the tail conditional allocation (TCA), also known as the marginal expected...     

Alternatives to a Semi-Parametric Estimator of Parameters of Rare Events—The Jackknife Methodology*

In this paper, and in a context of regularly varying tails, we propose different alternatives to a well-known estimator of the tail index—the Hill estimator (Hill, 1975). These alternatives have essentially in mind a reduction in bias, preferably without increasing Mean Square Error, by the use of suitable Generalized Jackknife methodologies (Gray and Schucany, 1972). The first estimate obtained through this methodolgy is the one introduced by Peng (1998), under a different context. Other Generalized Jackknife estimators are linear combinations of Hill estimators at different levels. This methodology of affine combinations of Hill estimators at different levels may be easily generalized to other semi-parametric estimators of the tail index, like Pickands' estimator (Pickands, 1975) or the Moment's estimator (Dekkers et al., 1989), and consequently to a general real tail index, seeming to be a promising field of research.     

沪深股市大盘指数收益率分布尾部的实证研究

通过H ill估计的改进方法对上证综合指数和深圳成分指数的收益率分布的尾部指数进行了参数估计,用χ2检验验证了指数的稳定性及其置信区间.在此基础上提出用尾部指数估计尾概率,达到风险控制的目的.实证研究表明,沪深大盘指数收益率分布具有肥尾的特征,但并不服从无限方差分布.     

Whittle estimation in a heavy-tailed GARCH(1,1) model

The squares of a GARCH(p,q) process satisfy an ARMA equation with white noise innovations and parameters which are derived from the GARCH model. Moreover, the noise sequence of this ARMA process constitutes a strongly mixing stationary process with geometric rate. These properties suggest to apply classical estimation theory for stationary ARMA processes. We focus on the Whittle estimator for the parameters of the resulting ARMA model. Giraitis and Robinson (2000) show in this context that the Whittle estimator is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal provided the process has finite 8th moment marginal distribution.

We focus on the GARCH(1,1) case when the 8th moment is infinite. This case corresponds to various real-life log-return series of financial data. We show that the Whittle estimator is consistent as long as the 4th moment is finite and inconsistent when the 4th moment is infinite. Moreover, in the finite 4th moment case rates of convergence of the Whittle estimator to the true parameter are the slower, the fatter the tail of the distribution.

These findings are in contrast to ARMA processes with iid innovations. Indeed, in the latter case it was shown by Mikosch et al. (1995) that the rate of convergence of the Whittle estimator to the true parameter is the faster, the fatter the tails of the innovations distribution. Thus the analogy between a squared GARCH process and an ARMA process is misleading insofar that one of the classical estimation techniques, Whittle estimation, does not yield the expected analogy of the asymptotic behavior of the estimators.     

Penalized empirical likelihood estimation of semiparametric models

We propose an empirical likelihood-based estimation method for conditional estimating equations containing unknown functions, which can be applied for various semiparametric models. The proposed method is based on the methods of conditional empirical likelihood and penalization. Thus, our estimator is called the penalized empirical likelihood (PEL) estimator. For the whole parameter including infinite-dimensional unknown functions, we derive the consistency and a convergence rate of the PEL estimator. Furthermore, for the finite-dimensional parametric component, we show the asymptotic normality and efficiency of the PEL estimator. We illustrate the theory by three examples. Simulation results show reasonable finite sample properties of our estimator.     

Rate optimal estimation with the integration method in the presence of many covariates

For multivariate regressors, integrating the Nadaraya–Watson regression smoother produces estimators of the lower-dimensional marginal components that are asymptotically normally distributed, at the optimal rate of convergence. Some heuristics, based on consistency of the pilot estimator, suggested that the estimator would not converge at the optimal rate of convergence in the presence of more than four covariates. This paper shows first that marginal integration with its internally normalized counterpart leads to rate-optimal estimators of the marginal components. We introduce the necessary modifications and give central limit theorems. Then, it is shown that the method apply also to more general models, in particular we discuss feasible estimation of partial linear models. The proofs reveal that the pilot estimator shall over-smooth the variables to be integrated, and, that the resulting estimator is itself a lower-dimensional regression smoother. Hence, finite sample properties of the estimator are comparable to those of low-dimensional nonparametric regression. Further advantages when starting with the internally normalized pilot estimator are its computational attractiveness and better performance (compared to its classical counterpart) when the covatiates are correlated and nonuniformly distributed. Simulation studies underline the excellent performance in comparison with so far known methods.     

Nonparametric estimation of multivariate density with direct and auxiliary data and application

We consider the problem of multivariate density estimation, using samples from the distribution of interest as well as auxiliary samples from a related distribution. We assume that the data from the target distribution and the related distribution may occur individually as well as in pairs. Using nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the joint distribution, we derive a kernel density estimator of the marginal density. We show theoretically, in a simple special case, that the implied estimator of the marginal density has smaller integrated mean squared error than that of a similar estimator obtained by ignoring dependence of the paired observations. We establish consistency of the marginal density estimator under suitable conditions. We demonstrate small sample superiority of the proposed estimator over the estimator that ignores dependence of the samples, through a simulation study with dependent and non-normal populations. The application of the density estimator in nonparametric classification is also discussed. It is shown that the misclassification probability of the resulting classifier is asymptotically equivalent to that of the Bayes classifier. We also include a data analytic illustration.     

Extreme Values in ON/OFF Models of Teletraffic under Permanent and Periodic Measurements

The asymptotic behavior of stream intensity extreme values in ON/OFF models of teletraffic under permanent and periodic measurements is studied. It is assumed that the intensity of each source has a distribution with a heavy (regularly varying) tail. A joint limiting distribution for maxima with a common linear normalization, marginal distributions, and the distribution of the maxima ratio are obtained. The extremal index for a sequence of periodic measurements is calculated.