混沌信号在子值域中的特性分析

针对Kent映射产生的子值域时间序列，利用模糊延迟重构方法，从相关维数、最大Lya-punov指数及可预测性等几个方面进行了分析．研究发现，子值域时间序列同样表现出混沌序列的性质，但与原来的动力系统相比存在着一定的差异．这一差异随着子值域大小的变化而变化 关键词：     

基于EMD方法的非线性/非平稳时间序列的气候预测研究

目前，大多数统计预测模型均假设时间序列或观测数据是线性和平稳的。然而，自然界的观测资料是非线性和非平稳的，通常很难用这些数学模型预测它们。本文针对这一问题提出了一个新的预测方案，即首先利用经验模态分解方法将非线性/非平稳时间序列平稳化，得到一系列本征模函数(IMF)；其次用均生函数模型预测各IMF分量；最后以所有IMF的预测值为新样本对源序列作最优子集回归模型的拟合及预测。结果表明每个IMF，尤其是特征IMF(即特征层次)比源序列有更高的可预测性。该方案为气候预测开辟了一条新的有效途径。     

中国旱涝极端事件前兆信号及可预测性研究

基于百分位,研究了Lorenz系统极端事件的前兆信号分布特征及可预测性;利用前兆信号及接收器算子特征曲线(receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC曲线)对中国旱涝极端事件可预测性进行研究,得到了极端事件的可预测效果与序列的自相关性、极端事件的极端程度之间的关系.研究表明,无论是Lorenz系统分量序列还是Palmer干旱指数序列(Palmer drought severity index, PDSI),存在极端事件的可预测性随极端程度增强而增加的现象.同时对各区域极端旱涝事件前兆信号及可预测性进行分析,为中国旱涝极端事件的预测提供一定科学依据. 关键词： 极端事件 前兆信号 可预测性     

一种基于误差补偿的多元混沌时间序列混合预测模型

针对多元混沌时间序列的预测问题, 考虑到单纯改进储备池算法无法明显地提高预测精度, 提出一种基于误差补偿的时间序列混合预测模型. 实际观测的数据既包含线性特征又包含非线性特征. 首先利用自回归移动平均模型预测线性特征, 使得残差数据仅含非线性特征; 然后, 建立正则化回声状态网络模型预测; 最后, 将非线性部分的预测值与线性部分的预测值相加, 以实现高精度的多元混沌时间序列预测. 基于Lorenz和太阳黑子-黄河径流量时间序列的仿真实验验证了本文所提模型的有效性. 关键词： 回声状态网络 混沌 多元时间序列预测 误差补偿     

水下目标辐射噪声的非线性检验

由于非线性是混沌产生的必要条件,所以讨论一个观测时间序列是否具有非线性,对进一步利用混沌时间序列方法分析观测时间序列很有意义。本文讨论水下目标辐射噪声信号中非线性问题,运用替代数据方法,根据实验数据与替代数据之间峭度和自相关两个量的差异性,分析了水下目标辐射噪声信号中的非线性成分,得出结论：水下目标辐射噪声信号中存在非线性成分,且这种非线性不是由于静态测量函数的非线性引起的,为利用非线性时间序列分析方法分析水下目标噪声信号提供了理论依据。     

混沌时间序列多步自适应预测方法

针对混沌时间序列局域自适应预测方法在多步预测中预测器系数无法调节的问题，根据混沌时间序列的短期可预测性及自适应算法的自适应跟踪混沌运动轨迹的特点，提出了混沌时间序列多步自适应预测方法.仿真结果表明，此方法的多步预测性能明显好于局域自适应预测方法的多步预测性能. 关键词： 多步自适应预测方法 局域自适应预测方法 混沌时间序列     

混沌的可加性

从理论上推导了由几个混沌时间序列构成的新序列的动力学特性，提出了可加性的概念.计 算机仿真结果说明，新的时间序列具有分维吸引子，对初始值很敏感，两条邻近轨道随着时 间的增加呈现指数分离，具有短期可预测性，因此新序列也是混沌序列，即混沌具有可加性 .混沌时间序列的可加性理论不仅具有重要的理论意义，而且具有重要的应用价值，它是研 究多跳频电台的跳频码的理论基础. 关键词： 混沌时间序列 吸引子 分维 可加性     

高炉铁水含硅量序列的动力学结构分析

以邯郸钢铁公司7号高炉在线采集的2000炉铁水含硅量［Si］数据为样本,对［Si］时间序列作了基于逆序数的平稳性检验.然后,在关联积分的基础上,定义了衡量不同时间序列间动力学相似性的“距离”,通过等分采集得到的［Si］序列,计算子序列间的“距离”,发现了高炉冶炼过程中存在显著的动力学结构突变性,最后应用DVV算法分析动力学性质变动下,高炉铁水含硅量［Si］的可预测性. 关键词： 高炉冶炼 平稳性 动力学相似性 可预测性     

多元混沌时间序列的多核极端学习机建模预测

多元混沌时间序列广泛存在于自然、经济、社会、工业等领域. 对多元混沌时间序列进行建模预测有助于人类更好地管理, 控制与决策. 针对多元混沌时间序列的建模预测问题, 本文提出一种基于多核极端学习机的预测方法. 首先对多元混沌时间序列进行相空间重构, 将多元混沌时间序列序列的时间相关性转化为空间相关性. 提出一种结合多核学习算法与核极端学习机模型的多核极端学习机建立相空间中输入输出数据的非线性映射. 多核极端学习机模型结合了多核学习算法的数据融合能力以及核极端学习机的训练简便优势. 基于Lorenz混沌时间序列预测和San Francisco河流月径流量预测的仿真实验表明, 与其他常见混沌时间序列预测方法相比, 本文提出的基于多核极端学习机的多元混沌时间序列预测方法具有更小的预测误差.     

关于atomic laser的订名

１９９７年以来，美国麻省理工学院的Ｗ．Ｋｅｔｅｒｌｅ研究小组发现［１］，由玻色－爱因斯坦凝聚中的原子产生的脉冲原子束是相干的，作为物质波，它们就像两束激光一样，会产生明暗相间的条纹，于是得到ａｔｏｍｉｃｌａｓｅｒ的概念．这个小组后来观测到，这种原子束...     

基于条件熵扩维的多变量混沌时间序列相空间重构

提出一种多变量混沌时间序列相空间重构的条件熵扩维方法.首先使用互信息法求解每个变量的时间延迟,其次按条件熵最大原则逐步扩展相空间的嵌入维数,使得重构坐标从低维到高维的转换保持较强的独立性,最终的重构相空间具有较低的冗余度,为多变量时间序列的预测构造了有效的模型输入向量.通过对几个经典多变量混沌时间序列进行数值实验,结果表明该方法比单变量预测和已有多变量预测方法具有更好的预测效果,说明了该重构方法的有效性. 关键词： 多变量混沌时间序列 相空间重构 条件熵 神经网络预测     

Adulteration of sesame oil with corn oil detected by use of two-dimensional infrared correlation spectroscopy and multivariate calibration

An innovative methodology was developed to detect adulteration of sesame oil with corn oil based on two-dimensional mid-infrared correlation spectroscopy with multivariate calibration. Forty pure sesame oils and 40 adulterated sesame oils with corn oil were prepared and the infrared absorption spectra were measured at room temperature, respectively. The synchronous two-dimensional mid-infrared correlation spectra were calculated to develop multivariate calibration models for adulteration of sesame oil with corn oil. The results showed the higher classification accuracy of 96.3% for the prediction set using two-dimensional mid-infrared correlation spectra and N-way partial least square discriminant analysis, versus 88.9% using traditional one-dimensional mid-infrared spectra and partial least squares discriminant analysis. Also, the multivariate calibration models were developed for quantitative analysis of sesame oil adulteration with corn oil. The root mean square error of prediction was 0.98% v/v using two-dimensional mid-infrared correlation spectra and N-PLS, and 1.15% v/v using traditional one-dimensional mid-infrared spectra and PLS. The results of our analyses indicated that the proposed method could provide better predictive results than traditional one-dimensional mid-infrared spectra and multivariate calibration.     

应用数字傅里叶滤波方法提高近红外光谱多元校正模型稳健性的研究

在近红外光谱多元校正方法实际应用中,经常遇到这样的情况,近红外光谱校正模型仅适用于建模时的测量条件,而在测量条件稍有变化时就无法实现样品的准确预测。文章主要研究采用数字傅里叶滤波预处理方法提高近红外光谱多元校正模型稳健性。文章将数字傅里叶滤波预处理方法应用于葡萄糖水溶液的温度实验,实验1和实验2分别在恒温25 ℃和恒温30 ℃进行光谱测量;实验3在未控温的室内环境下进行光谱测量。采用实验1和实验2的样品作为训练集进行模型训练和优化,模型建立完毕之后,采用实验3的样品作为验证集进行模型预测能力评价。结果表明,如果训练集样品未经过预处理而直接建立偏最小二乘(PLS)多元校正模型,则验证集样品均方根预测误差(RMSEP)为664.47 mg·dL-1。而训练集和验证集样品经过傅里叶滤波预处理之后分别进行PLS建模和预测,验证集样品均方根预测误差(RMSEP)降低为58.43 mg·dL-1,样品预测值与参考值的相关性也得到提高。可见,采用数字傅里叶滤波预处理方法可以提高多元校正模型的稳健性。     

用近红外光谱分析法测定汽油辛烷值

用近红外光谱技术测定汽油辛烷值,在高精度分光光度计上测得１２个汽油标准样品和４个未知样品的近红外区吸收光谱,建立多元统计分析模型,用逐步回归法和偏最小二乘法对模型进行校准,并将其用于未知样品的预估分析,辛烷值的分析精度达到≤±１．０。     

激光诱导击穿光谱结合多元非线性方法定量分析土壤中锰

锰元素是植物所需的微量元素之一。采用激光诱导击穿光谱(laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy,LIBS)技术对土壤中锰元素进行定量分析。以46个土壤样品为研究对象,获取土壤激光诱导击穿光谱数据,选取锰元素403.1 nm的特征谱线为分析线。根据谱线强度与元素浓度建立定标曲线,相关系数仅为0.78,定标结果说明,由于土壤样品成分的复杂性,锰元素浓度受土壤基体效应影响严重,应根据锰元素在土壤中的存在形式,选取相关元素,建立多元非线性回归定量分析方法,消除基体效应,从而提高LIBS测量的准确性。在多元非线性回归方法中分别考虑碳和铁元素对锰元素浓度的影响。与定标曲线相比,在考虑碳和铁元素对锰元素影响时,LIBS预测浓度与参考浓度的相关系数为0.97,相对误差为3.2%～10.3%,测量的准确度得到提高。实验结果表明,将多元非线性回归方法和激光诱导击穿光谱技术结合可以对土壤中微量锰元素进行定量分析。     

Multivariate calibration in TXRF analysis of water

The aim of this paper is the application of multivariate linear calibration for quantitative determination of elements (K, Cd, Co, Hg, As, Pb, Ni, and Al) in water by using Total Reflection X‐ray Fluorescence Analysis with partial least squares (PLS) as a regression method to improve a result of common univariate method. In purpose of elimination of matrix effects in X‐ray fluorescence analysis, experimental design was applied. As a set of standard samples for multivariate calibration, a five‐level eight‐factor calibration design of 25 samples was chosen, ensuring mutual orthogonality of factors. For model's validation, the independent test set of 15 samples was examined. The collection of spectra and quantitative measurements was carried out on S2 PICOFOX. The PLS regression was performed by using software package STATISTICA. Quality indicators of multivariate calibration as slope (b) and intercept (a) of calibration, correlation coefficient (r), determination coefficient (R²), root mean square errors of calibration and of prediction, standard errors of calibration and of prediction, biases of calibration, and biases of prediction were calculated. These results were compared with the univariate model, and as a result, the multivariate calibration method exceeds the univariate one. The obtained results could be applied in a laboratory for an analysis of water solutions in the concentration range 0.05–2.00 mg/L. In many real situations, when analytical chemist deals with multi‐element mixtures, multivariate calibration approach combined with orthogonal design for multivariate calibration set could be successfully used to improve a conventional univariate calibration.     

Travel Characteristics Analysis and Traffic Prediction Modeling Based on Online Car-Hailing Operational Data Sets

Smart transportation is an important part of smart urban areas, and travel characteristics analysis and traffic prediction modeling are the two key technical measures of building smart transportation systems. Although online car-hailing has developed rapidly and has a large number of users, most of the studies on travel characteristics do not focus on online car-hailing, but instead on taxis, buses, metros, and other traditional means of transportation. The traditional univariate variable hybrid time series traffic prediction model based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) ignores other explanatory variables. To fill the research gap on online car-hailing travel characteristics analysis and overcome the shortcomings of the univariate variable hybrid time series traffic prediction model based on ARIMA, based on online car-hailing operational data sets, we analyzed the online car-hailing travel characteristics from multiple dimensions, such as district, time, traffic jams, weather, air quality, and temperature. A traffic prediction method suitable for multivariate variables hybrid time series modeling is proposed in this paper, which uses the maximal information coefficient (MIC) to perform feature selection, and fuses autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variable (ARIMAX) and long short-term memory (LSTM) for data regression. The effectiveness of the proposed multivariate variables hybrid time series traffic prediction model was verified on the online car-hailing operational data sets.     

Characterization of a wavelength selection method using near-infrared spectroscopy and partial least squares with false nearest neighbors and its application in the detection of the chemical oxygen demand of waste liquid

Abstract

The spectral wavelength selection method is important in near-infrared spectroscopy. Eliminating redundant information and extracting useful information can improve the prediction accuracy and modeling efficiency of the quantitative analysis model for spectral analysis to obtain a near-infrared calibration model with strong predictability and good robustness. This paper proposes a wavelength selection method for near-infrared spectroscopy by combining the partial least squares and false nearest neighbor methods. In this method, the correlation between the characteristic wavelength variables and the measured index is assessed by means of a similarity-based distance measure of the characteristic wavelength variable, and the characteristic wavelength is selected according to the order of the correlation. The method was used to select characteristic wavelengths from the near-infrared spectrum of waste liquid to establish a prediction model for the chemical oxygen demand. Compared with the full-spectrum partial least squares and interval partial least squares based models, the number of characteristic wavelength variables is reduced from 1557 to 176, and the prediction accuracy of the model is improved. This method both simplifies the model and achieves higher prediction accuracy. Therefore, this study provides a novel solution for wavelength selection for multivariate calibration in near-infrared spectroscopy.     

基于极端学习机的多变量混沌时间序列预测

针对多变量混沌时间序列预测问题, 提出了一种基于输入变量选择和极端学习机的预测模型. 其基本思想是 对多变量混沌时间序列进行相空间重构后, 采用互信息方法选择与预测输出统计相关最高的重构输入变量, 借助极端学习机的通用逼近能力建立多变量混沌时间序列的预测模型. 为进一步提高预测精度, 采用模型选择算法选择具有最小期望风险的极端学习机预测模型. 基于Lorenz, Rössler多变量混沌时间序列及Rössler超混沌时间序列的仿 真结果证明所提方法的有效性.