Modeling Dependencies in Operational Risk with Hybrid Bayesian Networks

This paper addresses the problem of quantifying and modeling financial institutions’ operational risk in accordance with the Advanced Measurement Approach put forth in the Basel II Accord. We argue that standard approaches focusing on modeling stochastic dependencies are not sufficient to adequately assess operational risk. In addition to stochastic dependencies, causal topological dependencies between the risk classes are typically encountered. These dependencies arise when risk units have common information- and/or work-flows and when failure of upstream processes imply risk for downstream processes. In this paper, we present a modeling strategy that explicitly captures both topological and stochastic dependencies between risk classes. We represent the operational-risk taxonomy in the framework of a hybrid Bayesian network (BN) and provide an intuitively compelling approach for handling causal relationships and external influences. We demonstrate the use of hybrid BNs as a tool for mapping causal dependencies between frequencies and severities of risk events and for modeling common shocks. Monte-Carlo simulations illustrate that the impact of topological dependencies on triggering overall system breakdowns can be substantial.     

Causal compositional models in valuation-based systems with examples in specific theories

We show that Pearl's causal networks can be described using causal compositional models (CCMs) in the valuation-based systems (VBS) framework. One major advantage of using the VBS framework is that as VBS is a generalization of several uncertainty theories (e.g., probability theory, a version of possibility theory where combination is the product t-norm, Spohn's epistemic belief theory, and Dempster–Shafer belief function theory), CCMs, initially described in probability theory, are now described in all uncertainty calculi that fit in the VBS framework. We describe conditioning and interventions in CCMs. Another advantage of using CCMs in the VBS framework is that both conditioning and intervention can be easily described in an elegant and unifying algebraic way for the same CCM without having to do any graphical manipulations of the causal network. We describe how conditioning and intervention can be computed for a simple example with a hidden (unobservable) variable. Also, we illustrate the algebraic results using numerical examples in some of the specific uncertainty calculi mentioned above.     

Dynamic demand fulfillment in spare parts networks with multiple customer classes

We study real-time demand fulfillment for networks consisting of multiple local warehouses, where spare parts of expensive technical systems are kept on stock for customers with different service contracts. Each service contract specifies a maximum response time in case of a failure and hourly penalty costs for contract violations. Part requests can be fulfilled from multiple local warehouses via a regular delivery, or from an external source with ample capacity via an expensive emergency delivery. The objective is to minimize delivery cost and penalty cost by smartly allocating items from the available network stock to arriving part requests. We propose a dynamic allocation rule that belongs to the class of one-step lookahead policies. To approximate the optimal relative cost, we develop an iterative calculation scheme that estimates the expected total cost over an infinite time horizon, assuming that future demands are fulfilled according to a simple static allocation rule. In a series of numerical experiments, we compare our dynamic allocation rule with the optimal allocation rule, and a simple but widely used static allocation rule. We show that the dynamic allocation rule has a small optimality gap and that it achieves an average cost reduction of 7.9% compared to the static allocation rule on a large test bed containing problem instances of real-life size.     

Ensemble clustering in the belief functions framework

In this paper, belief functions, defined on the lattice of intervals partitions of a set of objects, are investigated as a suitable framework for combining multiple clusterings. We first show how to represent clustering results as masses of evidence allocated to sets of partitions. Then a consensus belief function is obtained using a suitable combination rule. Tools for synthesizing the results are also proposed. The approach is illustrated using synthetic and real data sets.     

Identifiability of intermediate variables on causal paths

We discuss the discovery of causal mechanisms and identifiability of intermediate variables on a causal path. Different from variable selection, we try to distinguish intermediate variables on the causal path from other variables. It is also different from ordinary model selection approaches which do not concern the causal relationships and do not contain unobserved variables. We propose an approach for selecting a causal mechanism depicted by a directed acyclic graph (DAG) with an unobserved variable. We consider several causal networks, and discuss their identifiability by observed data. We show that causal mechanisms of linear structural equation models are not identifiable. Furthermore, we present that causal mechanisms of nonlinear models are identifiable, and we demonstrate the identifiability of causal mechanisms of quadratic equation models. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for the identifiability.     

Linear broadcast routing

In this paper we examine the problem of performing broadcasts in networks where the messages are constrained to follow linear paths. Many high speed networks, where routing is done in specialized hardware, have this characteristic. We show that the general problem is NP-complete but find a polynomial time approximation algorithm which is guaranteed to provide a solution which is within twice the optimal. We also suggest some generalizations of this work and propose several open problems.     

Relationship of causal effects in a causal chain and related inference

This paper discusses the relationship among the total causal effect and local causal effects in a causal chain and identifiability of causal effects. We show a transmission relationship of causal effects in a causal chain. According to the relationship, we give an approach to eliminating confounding bias through controlling for intermediate variables in a causal chain.     

On the plausibility transformation method for translating belief function models to probability models

In this paper, we propose the plausibility transformation method for translating Dempster–Shafer (D–S) belief function models to probability models, and describe some of its properties. There are many other transformation methods used in the literature for translating belief function models to probability models. We argue that the plausibility transformation method produces probability models that are consistent with D–S semantics of belief function models, and that, in some examples, the pignistic transformation method produces results that appear to be inconsistent with Dempster’s rule of combination.     

可靠性网络中费用最小化问题的一种新的分枝定界算法

本文对可靠性网络中串-并系统的费用最小化问题提出一种新的分枝定界算法.我们根据这类网络的特殊结构和性质,建立了新的最优性必要条件,在分枝搜索过程中增加新的剪枝准则,从而加速了算法的收敛速度.有效的数值试验表明,该算法可求解大规模可靠性网络的费用最小化问题.     

A general performance analysis method for uniform memory architectures

The performance of a multiprocessor system greatly depends on the bandwidth of its memory architecture. In this paper, uniform memory architectures with various interconnection networks including crossbar, multiple-buses and generalized shuffle networks are studied. We propose a general method based on the Markov chain model by assuming that the blocked memory requests will be redistributed to the memory modules in the next memory cycle. This assumption results in an analysis with lower complexity where the number of states is linearly proportional to the number of processors. Moreover, it can provide excellent estimation on the system power and memory bandwidth for all three types of interconnection networks as compared with the simulation results in which the blocked memory requests are resubmitted to the same memory module. Comparisons also show that our method is more general and precise than most existing analysis methods. The method is further extended to estimate the performance of multiprocessor system with caches. The approximation results are also shown to be remarkably good.     

Dempster's rule of combination

The theory of belief functions is a generalization of probability theory; a belief function is a set function more general than a probability measure but whose values can still be interpreted as degrees of belief. Dempster's rule of combination is a rule for combining two or more belief functions; when the belief functions combined are based on distinct or “independent” sources of evidence, the rule corresponds intuitively to the pooling of evidence. As a special case, the rule yields a rule of conditioning which generalizes the usual rule for conditioning probability measures. The rule of combination was studied extensively, but only in the case of finite sets of possibilities, in the author's monograph A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. The present paper describes the rule for general, possibly infinite, sets of possibilities. We show that the rule preserves the regularity conditions of continuity and condensability, and we investigate the two distinct generalizations of probabilistic independence which the rule suggests.     

An analytical method for cost analysis in multi-stage supply chains: A stochastic network model approach

This paper studies the cost distribution characteristics in multi-stage supply chain networks. Based on the graphical evaluation and review technique, we propose a novel stochastic network mathematical model for cost distribution analysis in multi-stage supply chain networks. Further, to investigate the effects of cost components, including the procurement costs, inventory costs, shortage costs, production costs and transportation costs of supply chain members, on the total supply chain operation cost, we propose the concept of cost sensitivity and provide corresponding algorithms based on the proposed stochastic network model. Then the model is extended to analyze the cost performance of supply chain robustness under different order compensation ability scenarios and the corresponding algorithms are developed. Simulation experiment shows the effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed model, and also promotes a better understanding of the model approach and its managerial implications in cost management of supply chains.     

EXACT SOLUTION OF THE DEGREE DISTRIBUTION FOR AN EVOLVING NETWORK

In this paper we propose a simple evolving network with link additions as well as removals. The preferential attachment of link additions is similar to BA model’s, while the removal rule is newly added. From the perspective of Markov chain, we give the exact solution of the degree distribution and show that whether the network is scale-free or not depends on the parameter m, and the degree exponent varying in （3, 5] is also depend on m if scale-free.     

An evidential approach to SLAM,path planning,and active exploration

Probability theory has become the standard framework in the field of mobile robotics because of the inherent uncertainty associated with sensing and acting. In this paper, we show that the theory of belief functions with its ability to distinguish between different types of uncertainty is able to provide significant advantages over probabilistic approaches in the context of robotics. We do so by presenting solutions to the essential problems of simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) and planning based on belief functions. For SLAM, we show how the joint belief function over the map and the robot's poses can be factored and efficiently approximated using a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter, resulting in a generalization of the popular probabilistic FastSLAM algorithm. Our SLAM algorithm produces occupancy grid maps where belief functions explicitly represent additional information about missing and conflicting measurements compared to probabilistic grid maps. The basis for this SLAM algorithm are forward and inverse sensor models, and we present general evidential models for range sensors like sonar and laser scanners. Using the generated evidential grid maps, we show how optimal decisions can be made for path planning and active exploration. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our evidential approach, we apply it to two real-world datasets where a mobile robot has to explore unknown environments and solve different planning problems. Finally, we provide a quantitative evaluation and show that the evidential approach outperforms a probabilistic one both in terms of map quality and navigation performance.     

A class of random field memory models for mortality forecasting

This article proposes a parsimonious alternative approach for modeling the stochastic dynamics of mortality rates. Instead of the commonly used factor-based decomposition framework, we consider modeling mortality improvements using a random field specification with a given causal structure. Such a class of models introduces dependencies among adjacent cohorts aiming at capturing, among others, the cohort effects and cross generations correlations. It also describes the conditional heteroskedasticity of mortality. The proposed model is a generalization of the now widely used AR-ARCH models for random processes. For such a class of models, we propose an estimation procedure for the parameters. Formally, we use the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) and show its statistical consistency and the asymptotic normality of the estimated parameters. The framework being general, we investigate and illustrate a simple variant, called the three-level memory model, in order to fully understand and assess the effectiveness of the approach for modeling mortality dynamics.     

Inference in directed evidential networks based on the transferable belief model

Inference algorithms in directed evidential networks (DEVN) obtain their efficiency by making use of the represented independencies between variables in the model. This can be done using the disjunctive rule of combination (DRC) and the generalized Bayesian theorem (GBT), both proposed by Smets [Ph. Smets, Belief functions: the disjunctive rule of combination and the generalized Bayesian theorem, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 9 (1993) 1–35]. These rules make possible the use of conditional belief functions for reasoning in directed evidential networks, avoiding the computations of joint belief function on the product space. In this paper, new algorithms based on these two rules are proposed for the propagation of belief functions in singly and multiply directed evidential networks.     

A distance measure for bounding probabilistic belief change

We propose a distance measure between two probability distributions, which allows one to bound the amount of belief change that occurs when moving from one distribution to another. We contrast the proposed measure with some well known measures, including KL-divergence, showing some theoretical properties on its ability to bound belief changes. We then present two practical applications of the proposed distance measure: sensitivity analysis in belief networks and probabilistic belief revision. We show how the distance measure can be easily computed in these applications, and then use it to bound global belief changes that result from either the perturbation of local conditional beliefs or the accommodation of soft evidence. Finally, we show that two well known techniques in sensitivity analysis and belief revision correspond to the minimization of our proposed distance measure and, hence, can be shown to be optimal from that viewpoint.     

Structure equations and constraint manifolds on Lorentz plane

Calculating the structure equation of a chain is important to represent the position of the end link on the chain. Furthermore, the structure equation helps to determine the constraint manifold of the chain. The constraint manifold satisfies to make geometric interpretations about the form that is obtained. What is more, the constraint forced on the positions of the end link by the rest of the chain is represented by the manifold. In Lorentz space, the structure equations change according to the causal characters of the first link. In this paper, we attain the structure equations of a planar open chain in terms of the causal character of the first link in this space. Later, the constraint manifolds of the chain by using these equations are given. Some geometric comments about these manifolds are explained.     

Stress testing network reconstruction via graphical causal model

An resilience optimal evaluation of financial portfolios implies having plausible hypotheses about the multiple interconnections between the macroeconomic variables and the risk parameters. In this article, we propose a graphical model for the reconstruction of the causal structure that links the multiple macroeconomic variables and the assessed risk parameters, it is this structure that we call stress testing network. In this model, the relationships between the macroeconomic variables and the risk parameter define a “relational graph” among their time‐series, where related time‐series are connected by an edge. Our proposal is based on the temporal causal models, but unlike, we incorporate specific conditions in the structure which correspond to intrinsic characteristics this type of networks. Using the proposed model and given the high‐dimensional nature of the problem, we used regularization methods to efficiently detect causality in the time‐series and reconstruct the underlying causal structure. In addition, we illustrate the use of model in credit risk data of a portfolio. Finally, we discuss its uses and practical benefits in stress testing.     

时间标度上的Taylor公式及链式法则

致力于研究时间标度上二元函数的链式法则,以期其在最优控制上有广泛的应用.同时,对一元函数的泰勒公式给出一种新的较为简单的证明方法.