碳排放交易机制下的供应链运作策略及协调研究

碳排放权交易是控制和减少碳排放的有效工具,同时也使得企业的运作成本增加,供应链的决策管理更复杂。考虑由零售商和制造商组成的二阶段供应链,研究不同碳排放权交易政策(供应链成员内部碳排放权交易、外部市场碳排放权交易)下基于数量折扣契约的供应链协调问题,并与无碳排放约束的情形进行比较。研究结果表明:在不同碳排放权交易政策下,数量折扣契约能够实现供应链的协调;无碳排放约束的供应链最优订货量大于外部碳排放权交易的供应链最优订货量,成员内部碳排放交易下的供应链最优订货量和供应链期望利润随着碳排放配额的增加最终等于无碳排放约束下的供应链最优订货量和供应链期望利润;外部市场碳排放交易政策下供应链的期望利润随着碳排放配额的增加而增加。     

卖空限制下知情交易的测度及识别研究

经典的测量知情交易概率的模型默认交易者可以无限制的按照私有信息进行卖空交易,而目前我国股票市场存在卖空限制,直接将经典模型应用到我国股票市场时会使测量结果出现偏差。考虑到我国股票市场现状,本文在经典的知情交易概率模型中引入两个卖空限制参数,构建了本文的SC-TPIN模型。通过对融券标的中发生利空消息的股票样本进行实证分析,证实了本文构建的SC-TPIN模型估计出的结果与实际情况相符合。本文还以SC-TPIN模型估计出的SCTPIN值为参照,基于样本股票的低频数据构建了知情交易识别指标组,并使用数据挖掘中的支持向量机算法、KNN算法及Logit模型对黑白样本的知情交易高低情况进行识别比较,构建知情交易识别体系,发现使用支持向量机算法识别全样本的正确率达到了89%,识别效果较理想。     

Mean–variance optimal trading problem subject to stochastic dominance constraints with second order autoregressive price dynamics

The efficient modeling of execution price path of an asset to be traded is an important aspect of the optimal trading problem. In this paper an execution price path based on the second order autoregressive process is proposed. The proposed price path is a generalization of the existing first order autoregressive price path in literature. Using dynamic programming method the analytical closed form solution of unconstrained optimal trading problem under the second order autoregressive process is derived. However in order to incorporate non-negativity constraints in the problem formulation, the optimal static trading problems under second order autoregressive price process are formulated. For a risk neutral investor, the optimal static trading problem of minimizing expected execution cost subject to non-negativity constraints is formulated as a quadratic programming problem. Whereas, for a risk averse investor the variance of execution cost is considered as a measure for the timing risk, and the mean–variance problem is formulated. Moreover, the optimal static trading problem subject to stochastic dominance constraints with mean–variance static trading strategy as the reference strategy is studied. Using Static approximation method the algorithm to solve proposed optimal static trading problems is presented. With numerical illustrations conducted on simulated data and the real market data, the significance of second order autoregressive price path, and the optimal static trading problems is presented.     

Various passport options and their valuation

The passport option is a call option on the balance of a trading account. The option holder retains the gain from trading, while the writer is liable for the loss. Multi-asset passport options and passport options with discrete constraints are studied. For the first ones the pricing equations are Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. For those with discrete constraints, a linear complementary problem must be solved in order to price the option. The gain by selling passport options to utility maximizing investors and to investors who guess the market a certain percentage of the time is also examined.     

具有不同效用函数的最优投资组合分析

The question of optimal portfolio is that finds the trading strategy satisfying the maximal expected utility function subject to some constraints. There is the optimal trading strategy under the risk neutral probability measure (martingale measure) if and only if there is no-arbitrage opportunity in the market. This paper argues the optimal wealth and the optimal value of expected utility with different utility function.     

Environmentally friendly facility location with market competition

Many traditional facility location models assume spatial monopoly where market competition is ignored. Since facility locations affect the firm’s market exposure and subsequently its profit, accounting for the impact of the location decisions on customers while anticipating the reaction of competitor firms is essential. In this paper, we introduce a competitive facility location problem where market prices and production costs are determined through the economic equilibrium while explicitly considering competition from other firms. In order to accommodate for the growing efforts on limiting carbon emissions, the presented model includes constraints on the amount of carbon emissions that are due to transportation, while allowing carbon trading. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear model. Through numerical examples, we illustrate the effect of market competition on the location decisions and discuss the impact of emission limits and carbon trading on customers.     

Mean–variance optimal portfolios in the presence of a benchmark with applications to fraud detection

We first study mean–variance efficient portfolios when there are no trading constraints and show that optimal strategies perform poorly in bear markets. We then assume that investors use a stochastic benchmark (linked to the market) as a reference portfolio. We derive mean–variance efficient portfolios when investors aim to achieve a given correlation (or a given dependence structure) with this benchmark. We also provide upper bounds on Sharpe ratios and show how these bounds can be useful for fraud detection. For example, it is shown that under some conditions it is not possible for investment funds to display a negative correlation with the financial market and to have a positive Sharpe ratio. All the results are illustrated in a Black–Scholes market.     

Optimal and coherent economic-capital structures: evidence from long and short-sales trading positions under illiquid market perspectives

This paper broadens research literature associated with the assessment of modern portfolio risk management techniques by presenting a thorough modeling of nonlinear dynamic asset allocation and management under the supposition of illiquid and adverse market settings. Specifically, the paper proposes a re-engineered and robust approach to optimal economic capital allocation, in a Liquidity-Adjusted Value at Risk (L-VaR) framework, and particularly from the perspective of trading portfolios that have both long and short-sales trading positions. This paper expands previous approaches by explicitly modeling the liquidation of trading portfolios, over the holding period, with the aid of an appropriate scaling of the multiple-assets’ L-VaR matrix along with GARCH-M technique to forecast conditional volatility and expected return. Moreover, in this paper, the authors develop a dynamic nonlinear portfolio selection model and an optimization algorithm which allocates both economic capital and trading assets subject to some selected financial and operational rational constraints. The empirical results strongly confirm the importance of enforcing financially and operationally meaningful nonlinear and dynamic constraints, when they are available, on economic capital optimization procedure. The empirical results are interesting in terms of theory as well as practical applications and can aid in developing robust portfolio management algorithms that financial entities could consider in light of the aftermath of the latest financial crisis.     

夜盘交易对我国农产品期货市场影响的实证研究

随着我国农产品期货与国际市场的联动性进一步加强,为防止相关期货产品的隔夜风险和价格跳水问题,对部分农产品期货实行夜盘交易制度。为测度夜盘交易制度是否有益于农产品期货市场朝着稳定、理性的方向发展,本文采用了适合刻画金融序列波动性的GARCH族模型,实证检验得出GARCH、GARCH-M和EGARCH模型能够高度拟合农产品期货的价格序列并显著衡量夜盘交易对于我国农产品期货市场的影响。研究结论如下:第一、基于GRACH模型实证结果,夜盘交易制度变量的回归结果显著,该制度能减轻农产品期货的价格波动,且其影响是显著的;第二、EGARCH模型的回归结果同样显著,分别对比不同样本期的EGARCH模型实证结果可以得到,夜盘交易的开放减少了农产品期货市场的非对称性,使得市场趋向于理性的方向发展。     

离散约束条件下的实用投资组合选择模型

鉴于现实证券市场中的投资会受到很多类型的约束的限制,本文在同时综合反映多种市场摩擦与恰当度量投资风险的原则下,构建了两种分别以CVaR和双边一致性度量为风险度量的离散型多重约束实用投资组合选择模型。基于深圳证券交易所A股的日交易数据,我们从实证角度着重考虑了交易费用约束与逻辑约束对最优投资策略选择及其性能的影响,并给出了一些实用的投资建议。实证结果表明:新模型不仅可行、有效,而且能合理反映不同市场摩擦的作用。     

Utility Maximization with Convex Constraints and Partial Information

We consider a market model where stock returns satisfy a stochastic differential equation with an unobservable, stochastic drift process. The investor’s objective is to maximize expected utility of terminal wealth, but investment decisions are based on the knowledge of the stock prices only. The performance of the resulting highly risky strategies can be improved considerably by imposing convex constraints covering e.g. short selling restrictions. Using filtering methods we transform the model to a model with full information. We provide a verification result and show how results on optimization under convex constraints can be used directly for a continuous time Markov chain model for the drift. In special cases we derive representations of the optimal trading strategies, including a stochastic volatility model. Supported by the Austrian Science Fund, FWF grant P17947-N12.     

Scale-invariant asset pricing and consumption/portfolio choice with general attitudes toward risk and uncertainty

Motivated by notions of aversion to Knightian uncertainty, this paper develops the theory of competitive asset pricing and consumption/portfolio choice with homothetic recursive preferences that allow essentially any homothetic uncertainty averse certainty-equivalent form. The market structure is scale invariant but otherwise general, allowing any trading constraints that scale with wealth. Technicalities are minimized by assuming a finite information tree. Pricing restrictions in terms of consumption growth and market returns are derived and a simple recursive method for solving the corresponding optimal consumption/portfolio choice problem is established.     

区域差异化制度设计下的碳排放交易市场效率评价

本文依据中国碳排放交易试点阶段“差异化”制度设计的特点,基于分配制度、灵活机制、控排范围、交易规则、报告与核查制度以及法律制度六个维度,构建可数据化的碳交易市场投入产出效率评价指标体系。本文利用地区差异系数剔除制度外非均衡环境因素的影响,对现有试点地区差异化制度设计下的碳排放交易市场效率进行有效评价。研究表明:第一,较没有剔除制度外因素,上海、天津和北京3个省市碳交易市场效率有所下降,而其余4个省区投入产出效率则上升,说明碳交易市场效率确实受制度外因素的影响,同时说明探讨碳交易市场差异化制度设计有效性时,控制制度外因素干扰的必要性和合理性。第二,就制度设计本身,七个试点碳交易市场均未达到有效。广东碳排放交易市场效率最优,仅控排行业覆盖比例设计过低;重庆和天津的效率紧随其后,上海、深圳和北京的效率较低;而湖北由于控排范围设计不合理、准入门槛过高、MRV从业人员严重短缺等原因导致其交易市场效率最差。     

LP models for pricing diffuse nitrate discharge permits

Nitrate discharges from diffuse agricultural sources significantly contribute to groundwater and surface water pollution. Tradable permit programs have been proposed as a means of controlling nitrate emissions efficiently, but trading is complicated by the dispersed and delayed effects of the diffuse pollution. Hence, markets in nitrate discharge permits should be carefully designed to account for the underlying spatial and temporal interactions. Nitrate permit markets can be designed similar to the modern electricity markets which use LPs to find the equilibrium prices because the two trading problems have close analogy. In this paper, we propose alternative LP models to find efficient permit prices for year-ahead markets. The model structure varies depending on the catchment hydro-geology and long-term goals of the community. We show how the market price structures are driven by the constraint structure under different environmental conditions. We discuss the physical and economic conditions required to assure consistent prices, the modeling of essential and optional constraints in an LP, and the problem of balancing resource allocation over time among delayed-response discharge units. We then extend the LP model to balance resource allocation over time and to improve the market performance.     

A financial market with interacting investors: does an equilibrium exist?

While trading on a financial market, the agents we consider take the performance of their peers into account. By maximizing individual utility subject to investment constraints, the agents may ruin each other even unintentionally so that no equilibrium can exist. However, when the agents are willing to waive little expected utility, an approximated equilibrium can be established. The study of the associated backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) reveals the mathematical reason for the absence of an equilibrium. Presenting an illustrative counterexample, we explain why such multidimensional quadratic BSDEs may not have solutions despite bounded terminal conditions and in contrast to the one-dimensional case.     

Optimal portfolio policies under bounded expected loss and partial information

In a market with partial information we consider the optimal selection of portfolios for utility maximizing investors under joint budget and shortfall risk constraints. The shortfall risk is measured in terms of expected loss. Stock returns satisfy a stochastic differential equation. Under general conditions on the corresponding drift process we provide the optimal trading strategy using Malliavin calculus. We give extensive numerical results in the case that the drift is modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain with finitely many states. To deal with the problem of time-discretization when applying the results to market data, we propose a method to detect and correct possible tracking errors.     

证券市场内幕交易有信息含量的临界点值推算

中国证券市场内幕交易的同时存在市场操纵行为,使得独立判断内幕交易的信息含量存在困难.为解决判断纯粹内幕交易是否具有信息含量问题,需要确定内幕交易具有信息含量的临界点值.采用我国证券市场内幕交易与操纵样本数据,先在操纵均衡点附近排除市场操纵的影响,然后推算出无消息、无操纵状态下证券随同大盘运动的理论增长路径,在此基础上比较基于内幕信息操纵和理论增长情况,通过设定与理论增长的倍数关系,推算纯粹内幕交易具有信息含量的临界点值:异常收益应大于3%.该值可以解释现有文献认为内幕交易有或没有信息含量的矛盾与争论.应用于中国内幕交易实际情况及与近年国际相关研究文献对照,临界点值得到支持.     

基于机器学习的智能TWAP和VWAP算法的研究及应用

TWAP与VWAP算法为两类较常见的经典交易算法.传统的VWAP算法在TWAP算法的基础上,大多使用预测日内成交量分布的方法指导算法下单.传统成交量分布的预测效果严重依赖于市场交易惯性,但交易量分布受到日内诸多突发因素的影响,导致算法对市场突发状况的应对能力较弱.本文对传统TWAP与VWAP算法进行改进,利用滚动的1分钟粒度高频实时资金博弈数据,基于Logistic分类器训练量价模型,以该预测结果为入参构建最优化期望执行均价模型,求出当下各个价格档位对应委托数量的最优解.通过相对高频的分钟级价格预测机制,保证算法实时跟踪市场行情走势并寻求相对优势的交易机会.该算法经测试可以稳定地跑赢市场均价,具备推广应用的可行性.     

Optimal investment of DC pension plan under short-selling constraints and portfolio insurance

In this paper we investigate an optimal investment problem under short-selling and portfolio insurance constraints faced by a defined contribution pension fund manager who is loss averse. The financial market consists of a cash bond, an indexed bond and a stock. The manager aims to maximize the expected S-shaped utility of the terminal wealth exceeding a minimum guarantee. We apply the dual control method to solve the problem and derive the representations of the optimal wealth process and trading strategies in terms of the dual controlled process and the dual value function. We also perform some numerical tests and show how the S-shaped utility, the short-selling constraints and the portfolio insurance impact the optimal terminal wealth.     

Smooth solutions to portfolio liquidation problems under price-sensitive market impact

We consider the stochastic control problem of a financial trader that needs to unwind a large asset portfolio within a short period of time. The trader can simultaneously submit active orders to a primary market and passive orders to a dark pool. Our framework is flexible enough to allow for price-dependent impact functions describing the trading costs in the primary market and price-dependent adverse selection costs associated with dark pool trading. We prove that the value function can be characterized in terms of the unique smooth solution to a PDE with singular terminal value, establish its explicit asymptotic behavior at the terminal time, and give the optimal trading strategy in feedback form.