基于社会网络视角的突发灾害应急响应合作者关系网络分析——以“6·24”叠溪滑坡灾害为例

突发灾害应急管理实践表明,响应主体间的合作关系网络可靠性将影响应急响应的效率。本文以“6.24”新磨滑坡作为研究案例,采用文献分析、访谈、关系挖掘等研究方法构建灾害响应过程中主体间的合作者关系网络,重点从社会网络视角对该合作者关系的网络韧性进行量化分析,并对比随机生成的合作网络以及国外类似案例。研究发现,应急响应网络中的关键行动主体履行了救灾响应所要求的责任角色;在应急救援的效率方面,我国的应急救援体制具有制度优越性;指挥部等关键行动者会影响整个合作网络的效率和韧性。因此,在灾后应急救援时需进一步提升整体网络成员中协同救灾的水平,以在救援效率和效果上取得实效。     

Robust optimization for relief logistics planning under uncertainties in demand and transportation time

Emergency logistics is an essential component of post-disaster relief campaigns. However, there are always various uncertainties when making decisions related to planning and implementing post-disaster relief logistics. Considering the particular environmental conditions during post-disaster relief after a catastrophic earthquake in a mountainous area, this paper proposes a stochastic model for post-disaster relief logistics to guide the tactical design for mobilizing relief supply levels, planning initial helicopter deployments, and creating transportation plans within the disaster region, given the uncertainties in demand and transportation time. We then introduce a robust optimization approach to cope with these uncertainties and deduce the robust counterpart of the proposed stochastic model. A numerical example based on disaster logistics during the Great Sichuan Earthquake demonstrates that the model can help post-disaster managers to determine the initial deployments of emergency resources. Sensitivity analyses explore the trade-off between optimization and robustness by varying the robust optimization parameter values.     

基于应急救援物资单向转运的受灾点库存策略研究

了研究应急救援物流中存在物资单向转运条件下的受灾点库存策略,考虑由多个受灾点组成的单阶段系统,
各个受灾点之间存在单向转运.首先在各个受灾点物资进货点一定条件下,建立模型确定各个受灾点救援物资
需求依靠从其它受灾点转运得到满足的比例和直接从本身库存中得到满足的比例;其次,建立各个受灾点
救援物资进货水平优化的整数非线性规划模型,并考虑基于时间窗的救援效率水平约束,设计基于隐含
枚举法的模型求解算法;最后,运用算例对模型及其求解算法进行了模拟运算,从而验证了模型的有效性和实用性.     

不确定环境下应急救援供应链鲁棒优化模型

鉴于灾害救援运作的紧迫性和重要性,考虑需求、供应、成本等参数的不确定性,构建一个由供应商、救援配送中心和受灾区域构成的三级应急救援供应链,旨在确定救援产品数量及救援配送中心的合适位置,以最小化救援供应链总成本,最大化受灾区域满意水平为目标,采用区间数据鲁棒优化方法处理模型的不确定性,应用情景随机规划降低鲁棒优化的计算难度,最后给出一个地震案例的具体数据来证明所提救援供应链鲁棒优化模型的有效性和可行性。实验结果表明,需求保守度的变化对目标函数值的影响大于供给和成本保守度的变化,可为应急救援决策者调整不确定参数保守度提供理论支持。     

Application of discrete-event simulation in health care clinics: A survey

In recent decades, health care costs have dramatically increased, while health care organisations have been under severe pressure to provide improved quality health care for their patients. Several health care administrators have used discrete-event simulation as an effective tool for allocating scarce resources to improve patient flow, while minimising health care delivery costs and increasing patient satisfaction. The rapid growth in simulation software technology has created numerous new application opportunities, including more sophisticated implementations, as well as combining optimisation and simulation for complex integrated facilities. This paper surveys the application of discrete-event simulation modeling to health care clinics and systems of clinics (for example, hospitals, outpatient clinics, emergency departments, and pharmacies). Future directions of research and applications are also discussed.     

Locating disaster response facilities in Istanbul

We study the problem of locating disaster response and relief facilities in the city of Istanbul, where a massively destructive earthquake is expected to occur in the near future. The Metropolitan Municipality of Istanbul decided to establish facilities to preposition relief aid and execute post-disaster response operations. We propose a two-tier distribution system that utilizes existing public facilities locally in addition to the new facilities that will act as regional supply points. We develop mathematical models to decide on the locations of the new facilities with the objectives of minimizing the average-weighted distance between casualty locations and closest facilities, and opening a small number of facilities, subject to distance limits and backup requirements under regional vulnerability considerations. We analyze the trade-offs between these two objectives under various disaster scenarios and investigate the solutions for several modelling extensions. The results demonstrate that a small number of facilities will be sufficient and their locations are robust to various parameter and modelling changes.     

A hybrid model based on dynamic programming,neural networks,and surrogate value for inventory optimisation applications

This paper proposes a new approach to minimise inventory levels and their associated costs within large geographically dispersed organisations. For such organisations, attaining a high degree of agility is becoming increasingly important. Linear regression-based tools have traditionally been employed to assist human experts in inventory optimisation; endeavours; recently, Neural Network (NN) techniques have been proposed for this domain. The objective of this paper is to create a hybrid framework that can be utilised for analysis, modelling and forecasting purposes. This framework combines two existing approaches and introduces a new associated cost parameter that serves as a surrogate for customer satisfaction. The use of this hybrid framework is described using a running example related to a large geographically dispersed organisation.     

Team-based reconstruction for expanding organisational ability

Organisations can be interpreted as a collection of actors who produce value for clients. In order for organisations to stay competitive there is a need for organisations to continuously develop their ability. An organisation's ability is determined by its ability to effectively apply existing knowledge to create new knowledge and to take action that forms the basis for achieving competitive advantage from knowledge-based assets. One means for developing the organisational ability is to establish a mutually accepted understanding of the context in which the actors are acting. One important part of the organisation's knowledge creation processes is to facilitate the sharing of personal knowledge. A condition for developing the organisational ability is to expand the amount of shared knowledge to an appropriate level. One type of knowledge that needs to be shared among different actors within the organisation is the knowledge about how and in which order actions are performed (contextual knowledge) in order to satisfy client needs. In this paper an approach for team-based reconstruction, used for moving from personal to shared contextual knowledge, is presented. The approach bears on the foundation of theories about knowledge management for understanding the process of externalisation and theories about language action for understanding organisations. Experiences from three case studies are presented. Team-based reconstruction can be used for (1) moving from personal knowledge to shared contextual knowledge in an efficient way, (2) arriving at a foundation for efficient organisational coordination, (3) arriving at a base for development work, and (4) organisational learning.     

救援延迟效应如何影响政府企业救灾合作？基于微分博弈的研究

“政府主导、社会参与”的政企协同救灾成为我国救灾体制改革的方向。通讯中断以及运输路网的破坏经常导致救援的延迟,在救援延迟的应急场景下政企协同合作的救援效率一定高于自发救援吗？针对自发救援和协同合作两种救援模式,考虑救援延迟效应,构建了政企救灾合作的微分博弈模型,分析救援延迟对政企救灾策略的影响,以及政府成本补贴对提高协同救灾的适用条件。最后结合云南鲁甸地震的案例加以验证。结果表明,当延迟时间小于某阈值时,协同救援才更有效率。与自发救援相比,协同救援下政府救灾投入量随延迟时间急剧上升,而企业投入量变化较小。企业单位收益系数可作为衡量灾害严重程度的指标,数值越大,政府承担企业的救灾成本补贴比例越大。     

Project portfolio designing using data envelopment analysis and De Novo optimisation

In a rapidly evolving economic world, projects become tools to support organization goals. Project portfolio is set of all projects that are implemented in the organisation at a time. Possible projects are characterized by sets of inputs and outputs, where inputs are resources for project realisation and outputs measure multiple goals of the organisation. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) is an appropriate approach to select efficient projects. The organisation has its total resources in limited quantities. Designing a portfolio of efficient projects not exceeding the limited resources does not always lead to the most efficient portfolio. De Novo optimisation is an approach for designing optimal systems by reshaping the feasible set. The paper proposes a new approach for project portfolio designing based on a systemic combination of DEA model and De Novo optimisation approach. A total available budget is a restriction on project portfolio. The proposed concept provides designing of optimal project portfolio with the minimal budget. Performance measures of the designed project portfolio are the efficiency of the portfolio and the effectiveness of outputs. Possible extensions of the concept are formulated and discussed.     

Improving organisational performance through reverse logistics

Reverse logistics involves several activities that, based on decisions on how to implement and use them, seriously affect and impact the performance of an organisation. This paper analyses how different activities of reverse logistics could affect costs, and thus the performance of the organisation. The study is based on a survey of companies of the Spanish market and applies a structural model. The analysis provides evidence that: (1) based on the type of an activity, reverse logistics has different cost; therefore, it is important to select the most appropriate combination and implementation of reverse logistics activities. (2) Reverse logistics activities affect reverse logistics cost, and thus it decisively determines organisational performance. A number of implications and contributions stems from the discussion and conclusions of the study.     

城市消防站点布局的改进启发式算法

面对数量较多需要及时处理的突发事故,为了满足最短应急时间限制,最低应急资源数和最少的出救点等目标,在城市规划决策中,考虑在一个确定应急限制期下的安全消防站选址问题,给出一个反映决策者对时间和费用偏好的折衷选址方案十分必要.从实际应用出发,运用改进启发式算法方法研究时间与资源限制条件下的多出救点组合模型求解问题.给出了应急限制期和安全消防设施点建立的费用模型,从理论上证明了模型求解方法的正确性.在给定限制期条件下,通过分析得出应急服务设施点选择方法.通过算例说明该计算方法的具体应用,为交通安全消防站点选择提供参考,该方法还适用于诸如医院急救站等类似公共设施的规划建设.     

多储备点多品种应急物资配送的多目标优化模型

应急救援的社会化、应急物资需求的多样性、应急物资需求和补给的时变性,对应急物流的配送调度提出了挑战.应急物流的紧急性要求最大程度保障受灾点的物资供应;在经济上则要求应急物流的成本最小化.通过将时间离散化为阶段序列,在应急物资需求和补给是可预测的情况下,建立一个多储备点、多物资品种、单受灾点的应急物资配送的多目标优化模型,来最小化应急物资短缺次数和运输成本.仿真实例表明,该模型可以通过优化引擎快速求解,能够发现导致短缺的应急物资品种和加强供应补给的时间区间.     

基于期权契约的应急药品储备模型研究

突发灾害发生后,应急药品需求数量呈现爆发式增长,充足的应急药品对减少和控制人员伤亡、保障救灾效果及减少经济损失具有重要作用。由于应急药品的需求特性和自然属性,我国现行的应急药品储备模式很容易造成应急药品短缺或过期,也无法保证政府与医药企业长久的合作关系,因此如何科学合理地储备应急药品成为政府亟待解决的关键难题。为此,本文引入期权契约到政府与医药企业组成的两级供应链系统,构建了期权契约机制下应急药品储备模型,得出政企最优决策策略及双方成本收益,给出了实现供应链协调与政企双赢的条件。研究表明,应急药品储备模型提高了应急药品储备水平,降低了政府库存风险,有利于保障供应商合理收益及控制政府成本,为政企建立长久的合作关系提供了依据,为应急药品储备提供了可行的操作策略。     

考虑双方感知满意度的应急资源再配置方法

突发事件常诱发次生灾害,在外界大规模应急资源配送前,发挥区域互救优势,共享原生灾害点应急资源进行资源再配置是及时响应次生灾害的重要手段之一。本文尝试将灾民心理因素融入到应急资源的再配置问题中,基于前景理论提出了原生灾害点灾民的感知满意度模型,结合生存概率曲线对次生灾害点灾民感知满意度进行刻画,构建了考虑双方灾民感知满意度的多目标优化模型。此外,引入缩放系数和违反约束检查函数,改进多目标粒子群算法以加快算法初始化,进而提升模型求解效率。最后,本文通过算例验证了模型和算法的可行性和科学性,并与传统资源配置问题进行了对比,为具有连锁反应的突发事件应急管理提供决策支持。     

A robust disaster preparedness model for effective and fair disaster response

Humanitarian network design decisions belonging to the preparedness stage of disaster management life-cycle are of critical importance since they set the frame for all further post-disaster operations. Having an adequate number of strategically located storage and distribution centers for critical supplies is the key that enables effectiveness, efficiency and fairness when responding to a disaster situation. The preparedness model proposed in this study selects locations and inventory levels of these facilities such that the right mix of relief items can be supplied at the right time. Our mixed integer linear model aims to find a robust relief network design that satisfies the demand for all given disaster scenarios, and to help achieve a better response during the response stage when the relief items are distributed. The assumptions and the parameters used in the model are justified by authorities of humanitarian organizations. We propose a logic-based Benders decomposition approach to solve this problem to optimality. Although the problem is NP-hard, our numerical studies demonstrate that it is possible to obtain optimal or very good solutions to problem instances with realistic sizes.     

震后应急物流系统中带时间窗的模糊动态LRP

针对震后应急物流系统中多层次设施定位－运输路线安排问题(LRP),考虑系统中的动态性、时效性、路网连通性、需求不确定性等特点,建立了一个带时间窗的模糊动态LRP优化模型,据此进行救援过程中不同周期灾区外围应急物资集散点和灾区应急配送中心的定位以及应急物资运输路线安排的联合决策。针对该模型的特点,提出了一种基于动态规划的改进遗传算法,为防遗传算法过早收敛问题,使用了随机遍历抽样法、重组策略和变化变异率法,并通过特定实值编码、罚函数法和物资需求量分割策略处理模型中的约束条件。最后,通过算例分析验证了该模型和算法的有效性。     

Impacts of earmarked private donations for disaster fundraising

Faced with large humanitarian emergencies like the earthquakes in Haiti and Japan, aid agencies have to decide how to collect money for their relief work. They can either decide to establish a special fund for the emergency and allow for earmarked donations or they can only allow for unearmarked donations. In this paper, we analyze impacts of this decision on donors, aid agencies, and policy makers. To this end, we compare two prevalent fundraising modes using optimization models: fundraising with the option of earmarking donations and fundraising without an earmarking option. In the earmarked case, we consider a new fundraising challenge, excessive funds raised for certain disaster relief projects. We find that desirable fundraising modes for donors, aid agencies, and policy makers differ depending on levels of several parameters, including an aid agency’s utility of a dollar raised, the fundraising cost factor, and donors’ unit utility of donations. Allowing for earmarking leads to a lower overall fundraising cost percentage. For emergencies with strong media attention and donor interest, allowing for earmarking of donations is likely to reduce fundraising activities of organizations with low fundraising costs, while it is likely to encourage fundraising activities among organizations with high fundraising costs.     

Modelling and information systems for senior management in local government: problems and prospects

The paper considers the role of modelling systems at senior levels in democratically accountable multi-service public sector organisations such as local government.The main basis for the arguments proposed is three years of project work terminating in mid-1977. During this period the writer acted as a consultant to the IBM (UK) Scientific Centre and was responsible for the day-to-day co-ordination of a major project undertaken in the first tier Welsh local authority, Clwyd County Council.The project, which involved substantial resource inputs from both IBM and the local authority, led to definitive conclusions as to the nature and potential value of the modelling system developed.The main purpose of this paper is to consider the extent to which multi-service modelling systems in general are of relevance to local government. The system developed in the Welsh local authority may be described as affording means oriented resource planning facilities. Further it was designed to generate short and medium term (up to five years) information.It is concluded that although at first sight the implementation of an extensive modelling system may seem to involve intervention on a narrow front the reality is that it impinges upon all the main organisational variables. Because of this the prospect for realising the potential of the system will vary considerably from organisation to organisation. It is important that this should be appreciated by senior management before they approve the commitment of resources to developments of this nature.