Singular sources mining using evidential conflict analysis

Singular sources mining is essential in many applications like sensor fusion or dataset analysis. A singular source of information provides pieces of evidence that are significantly different from the majority of the other sources. In the Dempster-Shafer theory, the pieces of evidence collected by a source are summarized by basic belief assignments (bbas). In this article, we propose to mine singular sources by analyzing the conflict between their corresponding bbas. By viewing the conflict as a function of parameters called discounting rates, new developments are obtained and a criterion that weights the contribution of each bba to the conflict is introduced. The efficiency and the robustness of this criterion is demonstrated on several sets of bbas with various specificities.     

ON HYPERBOLIC TIME DISCOUNTING IN EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO WORLD OIL RESOURCES

ABSTRACT. Recent research on discounting in long term economic models involves hyperbolic discounting, in which the marginal discount rate shrinks as time passes. To investigate hyperbolic discounting and exhaustible resource allocation, this work develops a discrete‐time world oil model and model solution procedure, then uses the model to examine the consequences of adopting conventional (constant annual) discounting when hyperbolic discounting is appropriate, of adopting one hyperbolic discount rate path when a different hyperbolic path is appropriate, and of adopting hyperbolic discounting when conventional discounting is appropriate. Five conventional and two hyperbolic discount rate paths are considered. One hyperbolic path is that used by Nordhaus and Boyer [2000]; the other is that recommended by Weitzman [2001]. The generality of the findings is also assessed.     

Existence and structure of solutions for a class of optimal control systems with discounting arising in economic dynamics

We study the existence and a turnpike property of solutions of a discrete-time control system with discounting and with a compact metric space of states. In our recent work for this discrete-time optimal control system without discounting we establish the turnpike property and show that it is stable under perturbations of an objective function. In the present paper we show that this turnpike property together with its stability also hold for the system with discounting.     

Reasoning with imprecise belief structures

This paper extends the theory of belief functions by introducing new concepts and techniques, allowing to model the situation in which the beliefs held by a rational agent may only be expressed (or are only known) with some imprecision. Central to our approach is the concept of interval-valued belief structure (IBS), defined as a set of belief structures verifying certain constraints. Starting from this definition, many other concepts of Evidence Theory (including belief and plausibility functions, pignistic probabilities, combination rules and uncertainty measures) are generalized to cope with imprecision in the belief numbers attached to each hypothesis. An application of this new framework to the classification of patterns with partially known feature values is demonstrated.     

Combination of partially non-distinct beliefs: The cautious-adaptive rule

The combination rule is critical in an evidence based fusion process. The conjunctive rule is most common eventhough when the cognitive independence – distinctness – assumption is often questionable. A new combination rule is tested here in both discrete and continuous cases, accounting for a partial non-distinctness between evidences. It is based on ‘generalized discounting’, that we define for separable basic belief assignments (bbas) or basic belief densities (bbds), to be applied to the source correlation derived from the cautious rule. This correlation can be specified in both considered cases of consonant bbas/bbds (as proposed by Dubois et al.) and separable bbas/bbds (as proposed by Denœux). Then, the so-called ‘cautious-adaptive’ rule varies between the conjunctive rule and the cautious one, depending on the discounting level. In the Gaussian case with standard deviation σ, the evidence non-distinctness will be parameterized by a factor [0,1] dividing σ. It leads to the generalized discounting needed in the cautious-adaptive formulation.     

Discounting axioms imply risk neutrality

Although most applications of discounting occur in risky settings, the best-known axiomatic justifications are deterministic. This paper provides an axiomatic rationale for discounting in a stochastic framework. Consider a representation of time and risk preferences with a binary relation on a real vector space of vector-valued discrete-time stochastic processes on a probability space. Four axioms imply that there are unique discount factors such that preferences among stochastic processes correspond to preferences among present value random vectors. The familiar axioms are weak ordering, continuity and nontriviality. The fourth axiom, decomposition, is non-standard and key. These axioms and the converse of decomposition are assumed in previous axiomatic justifications for discounting with nonlinear intraperiod utility functions in deterministic frameworks. Thus, the results here provide the weakest known sufficient conditions for discounting in deterministic or stochastic settings. In addition to the four axioms, if there exists a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function corresponding to the binary relation, then that function is risk neutral (i.e., affine). In this sense, discounting axioms imply risk neutrality.     

Infinite horizon autonomous systems with unbounded cost

We discuss control systems defined on an infinite horizon, where typically all the associated costs become unbounded as the time grows indefinitely. It is proved, under certain lower semicontinuity and controllability assumptions, that a linear time function can be subtracted from the cost, resulting in a modified cost, which is bounded on the infinite time interval. The cost evaluated over one sampling interval has a simple representation in terms of the initial and final states. Applying this representation we obtain an optimality result for control systems represented by ordinary differential equations whose cost integrand contains a discounting factor.     

Investment and consumption without commitment

In this paper, we investigate the Merton portfolio management problem in the context of non-exponential discounting. This gives rise to time-inconsistency of the decision-maker. If the decision-maker at time t = 0 can commit her successors, she can choose the policy that is optimal from her point of view, and constrain the others to abide by it, although they do not see it as optimal for them. If there is no commitment mechanism, one must seek a subgame-perfect equilibrium policy between the successive decision-makers. In the line of the earlier work by Ekeland and Lazrak (Preprint, 2006) we give a precise definition of equilibrium policies in the context of the portfolio management problem, with finite horizon. We characterize them by a system of partial differential equations, and establish their existence in the case of CRRA utility. An explicit solution is provided for the case of logarithmic utility. We also investigate the infinite-horizon case and provide two different equilibrium policies for CRRA utility (in contrast with the case of exponential discounting, where there is only one optimal policy). Some of our results are proved under the assumption that the discount function h(t) is a linear combination of two exponentials, or is the product of an exponential by a linear function. I. Ekeland was supported by PIMS under NSERC grant 298427-04.     

具随机折现的博弈期权定价问题

对具随机折现的博弈期权定价问题进行了研究,在满足一个可积性条件的情况下,借用过份函数等工具给出了期权价格的表达式和买卖双方的最优停止策略.对于不满足可积性条件的情况,推广了相关文献的结果,并给出了τ＊存在的条件.最后给出了一个例子.     

On the optimality of threshold type strategies in single and recursive optimal stopping under Lévy models

In the spirit of Surya (2007), we develop an average problem approach to prove the optimality of threshold type strategies for optimal stopping of Lévy models with a continuous additive functional (CAF) discounting. Under spectrally negative models, we specialize this in terms of conditions on the reward function and random discounting, where we present two examples of local time and occupation time discounting. We then apply this approach to recursive optimal stopping problems, and present simpler and neater proofs for a number of important results on qualitative properties of the optimal thresholds, which are only known under a few special cases Carmona and Touzi (2008), Leung et al. (2015) and Surya (2007).     

马氏决策规划的加速逼近算法与最小方差问题

我们涉及的折扣马氏决策规划(有些著者称为马氏决策过程),具有状态空问与每个状态可用的决策集均为可数无穷集、次随机转移律族、有界报酬函数.给出了一个求(ε_)最优平稳策略的加速收敛逐次逼近算法,比White的逐次逼近算法更快地收敛于(ε_)最优解,并配合有非最优策略的检验准则,使算法更加得益. 设β为折扣因子,一般说β(或(ε,β))_最优平稳策略,往往是非唯一的,甚至与平稳策略类包含的策略数一样多.我们自然希望在诸β(或(ε,β))_最优平稳策略中寻求方差齐次地(关于初始状态)达(ε_)最小的策略.我们证明了这种策略确实存在,并给出了获得这种策略的算法.     

Comparison of Random Cash Flows

In this paper we provide stochastic-dominance conditions forrandom cumulated cash flows, when various criteria of choiceare assumed. Three (progressively finer) criteria are considered.The first one assumes only the expected utility principle. Thesecond one involves discounting and preference scaling. Thethird one involves discounting and preference scaling, too,but in reverse order. Our results are finally compared withother known results for the case of nonrandom cash flows.     

Bifurcations to Periodic Solutions in a Production/Inventory Model

Total production costs sometimes show an S-shaped form. There are several ways in which a plant with given capacity can be adapted to a specific demand rate, one of them being adaptation of intensity per work hour. In this paper we present an application of the Hamilton-Hopf bifurcation to an inventory/production intensity splitting model with a nonconvex cost function. Our analysis provides a new proof that persistent oscillations may be optimal for arbitrary small discount rates. For zero discounting a Hamilton Hopf bifurcation occurs, leading to a family of periodic solutions bifurcating from a steady state. If the discount rate becomes positive, almost all periodic solutions vanish; only a unique branch of periodic solutions is obtained.     

A stochastic integral arising in discounting continuous cash flows and certain transformed characteristic functions

Transformed characteristic functions are universally recognized as the most powerful tools for investigating distribution functions of complicated stochastic models. The paper is mainly devoted to the establishment of properties and applications of a particular convolution model. More precisely, the paper derives the characteristic function of a convolution model based on a stochastic integral and provides applications of this model in discounting continuous cash flows.     

基于营运资金信息匹配平台的供应链金融动态折扣决策研究

当前逐渐受到实业界关注的一种新型供应链金融模式是基于营运资金信息匹配平台的动态折扣。本文针对两级供应链的动态折扣决策问题进行建模,揭示了动态折扣的应用对于改善供应链参与方现金流的影响机理。首先通过考虑供需双方动态折扣的独立决策,得出日折扣率的边界条件、双方效用最大时的日折扣率、买方混合还款方式下营运资金的最优准备方案和最低边界值;其次考虑供需双方动态折扣的最优决策,推导出在不同折扣率和利率关系下的最优还款策略,研究表明动态折扣可以明显提升供需双方的利润情况。     

Relevance and truthfulness in information correction and fusion

A general approach to information correction and fusion for belief functions is proposed, where not only may the information items be irrelevant, but sources may lie as well. We introduce a new correction scheme, which takes into account uncertain metaknowledge on the source’s relevance and truthfulness and that generalizes Shafer’s discounting operation. We then show how to reinterpret all connectives of Boolean logic in terms of source behavior assumptions with respect to relevance and truthfulness. We are led to generalize the unnormalized Dempster’s rule to all Boolean connectives, while taking into account the uncertainties pertaining to assumptions concerning the behavior of sources. Eventually, we further extend this approach to an even more general setting, where source behavior assumptions do not have to be restricted to relevance and truthfulness. We also establish the commutativity property between correction and fusion processes, when the behaviors of the sources are independent.     

Capital Replacement Under Variable Discounting

This paper presents a theoretical model for dealing with uncertainity in capital investment. Utilizing the problem of recurring capital replacement, an optimum strategy is derived under variable discounting. A linear approximation to the variable discount function is given as an illustration.     

Discounted combination of unreliable evidence using degree of disagreement

When Dempster’s rule is used to implement a combination of evidence, all sources are considered equally reliable. However, in many real applications, all the sources of evidence may not have the same reliability. To resolve this problem, a number of methods for discounting unreliable sources of evidence have been proposed in which the estimation of the discounting (weighting) factors is crucial, especially when prior knowledge is unavailable. In this paper, we propose a new degree of disagreement through which discounting factors can be generated for discounting combinations of unreliable evidence. The new degree of disagreement is established using distance of evidence. It can be experimentally verified that our degree of disagreement describes the disagreements or differences among bodies of evidence well and that it can be effectively used in discounting combinations of unreliable evidence.     

Optimal equilibrium barrier strategies for time-inconsistent dividend problems in discrete time

This paper studies a time-inconsistent dividend problem in discrete time with nonexponential discounting. Motivated by the decreasing impatience in behaviour economics, a general discount function is used and assumed to be log sub-additive. Using a game-theoretic approach equilibrium barrier strategies are considered. It is shown that in the case of multiple equilibria, there exists an optimal one that pointwisely dominates all the other equilibria. Case studies are conducted where there is no equilibrium, multiple equilibria, and a unique equilibrium.