Stochastic Nonstationary Optimization for Finding Universal Portfolios

We apply ideas from stochastic optimization for defining universal portfolios. Universal portfolios are that class of portfolios which are constructed directly from the available observations of the stocks behavior without any assumptions about their statistical properties. Cover [7] has shown that one can construct such portfolio using only observations of the past stock prices which generates the same asymptotic wealth growth as the best constant rebalanced portfolio which is constructed with the full knowledge of the future stock market behavior.In this paper we construct universal portfolios using a different set of ideas drawn from nonstationary stochastic optimization. Our portfolios yield the same asymptotic growth of wealth as the best constant rebalanced portfolio constructed with the perfect knowledge of the future and they are less demanding computationally compared to previously known universal portfolios. We also present computational evidence using New York Stock Exchange data which shows, among other things, superior performance of portfolios which explicitly take into account possible nonstationary market behavior.     

Optimal portfolio execution under cointegrated vector autoregressive systems

Abstract

In this paper, an optimal portfolio execution problem under price model which exhibits cointegration behaviour is proposed. The proposed problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem. With different statistical procedures and parameter estimation methods, employed on real market financial data, the four portfolios are constructed with which, computational study is performed. It is shown that the trading strategies constructed out of portfolios with cointegrated price dynamics show significant reduction in execution cost.     

Constructing and evaluating balanced portfolios of R&D projects with interactions: A DEA based methodology

We propose and demonstrate a methodology for the construction and analysis of efficient, effective and balanced portfolios of R&D projects with interactions. The methodology is based on an extended data envelopment analysis (DEA) model that quantifies some the qualitative concepts embedded in the balanced scorecard (BSC) approach. The methodology includes a resource allocation scheme, an evaluation of individual projects, screening of projects based on their relative values and on portfolio requirements, and finally a construction and evaluation of portfolios. The DEA–BSC model is employed in two versions, first to evaluate individual R&D projects, and then to evaluate alternative R&D portfolios. To generate portfolio alternatives, we apply a branch-and-bound algorithm, and use an accumulation function that accounts for possible interactions among projects. The entire methodology is illustrated via an example in the context of a governmental agency charged with selecting technological projects.     

心理账户、损失厌恶与行为资产配置实证研究

基于前景理论和三参照点理论,建立了单心理账户和三心理账户下的线性损失厌恶行为投资组合模型,并利用中证基金指数数据构建了不同市场状态下的行为投资组合,实证研究不同损失厌恶系数、不同参照点、不同心理账户资金配置条件下模型的最优资产配置策略和投资组合绩效,研究发现线性损失厌恶模型更关注下侧损失,损失厌恶系数影响资产配置,注重安全性的投资者偏好低风险资产,而寻求实现抱负水平的投资者更偏好高收益资产。     

Jump-diffusion international asset allocation

We examine international asset allocation with jump-diffusion assets in the presence of risky deviations of exchanges rates from purchasing power parity when investors consume both traded and nontraded goods. We show that adding new jump risks to existing diffusion assets does not alter investors’ original optimal portfolios of diffusion assets, as long as diffusion-risk premia remain unchanged. We also show that hedge portfolios against purchasing power parity deviations are integral parts of optimal portfolios for investors from different countries, and they can be constructed by using foreign and domestic inflation-indexed bonds. Moreover, country-specific demand for risky assets can arise from nontraded-good-specific inflation-rate-differential risks.     

Risk factor extraction with quantile regression method

Firm characteristics based risk factors constitute a large part of the asset pricing literature. These characteristic based factors are constructed using the extreme quantiles of the sorted portfolios based on the firm characteristic in question. Yet to date, there is no consensus on a systematic approach to determine the optimal quantile used for extracting firm characteristic based risk factors. In addition, it is a stylised fact that asset prices exhibit heteroscedastic behavior, and counting on the extreme portfolios to extract the characteristic factors can produce unexpected result. In this study, we use quantile regressions to determine the optimal quantiles used in portfolios sorts to extract characteristic based risk factors used in asset pricing. Quantile regressions are well-suited to identify the quantiles needed to extract firm characteristic based factors, especially when the firm characteristic based factors and stock returns relationship is non-linear. More over, quantile regressions presents the quantile-by-quantile risk-return coefficients, thereby verifying the behavior of the extreme quantiles used in the factor construction. By examining the relationship between common characteristic based factors and stock returns in 23 developed countries, we observed that the optimal quantiles used to construct the common factors may differ between factors, but is similar across the North American, Asia-Pacific and Europe regions.

     

Geometric representation of the mean–variance–skewness portfolio frontier based upon the shortage function

The literature suggests that investors prefer portfolios based on mean, variance and skewness rather than portfolios based on mean–variance (MV) criteria solely. Furthermore, a small variety of methods have been proposed to determine mean–variance–skewness (MVS) optimal portfolios. Recently, the shortage function has been introduced as a measure of efficiency, allowing to characterize MVS optimal portfolios using non-parametric mathematical programming tools. While tracing the MV portfolio frontier has become trivial, the geometric representation of the MVS frontier is an open challenge. A hitherto unnoticed advantage of the shortage function is that it allows to geometrically represent the MVS portfolio frontier. The purpose of this contribution is to systematically develop geometric representations of the MVS portfolio frontier using the shortage function and related approaches.     

Component-by-Component Construction of Good Lattice Rules with a Composite Number of Points

We develop algorithms to construct rank-1 lattice rules in weighted Korobov spaces of periodic functions and shifted rank-1 lattice rules in weighted Sobolev spaces of non-periodic functions. Analyses are given which show that the rules so constructed achieve strong QMC tractability error bounds. Unlike earlier analyses, there is no assumption that n, the number of quadrature points, be a prime number. However, we do assume that there is an upper bound on the number of distinct prime factors of n. The generating vectors and shifts characterizing the rules are constructed ‘component-by-component,’ that is, the (d+1)th components of the generating vectors and shifts are obtained using one-dimensional searches, with the previous d components kept unchanged.     

Enhancement of equity portfolio performance using data envelopment analysis

This paper examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a basis of selection criteria for equity portfolios. It is the first DEA application for constructing a combined equity investment strategy that aims to integrate the benefits of both value investing and momentum investing. The 3-quantile portfolios are composed of a comprehensive sample of Finnish non-financial stocks based on their DEA efficiency scores that are calculated using three variants of DEA models (the constant returns-to-scale, the super-efficiency, and the cross-efficiency models). The performance of portfolios is evaluated on the basis of the average return and several risk-adjusted performance metrics throughout the 1994–2010 sample period.     

Currency Denomination in Long-Term Debt Financing and Refinancing: A Cross- Hedging Paradigm

Under conditions of chronic exchange rate overshooting and mildly segmented capital markets, optimal currency denomination decision rules for international debt financing are derived for risk-neutral and risk-averse borrowers. For the latter, an inter-temporal expected utility framework yields the risk-adjusted cost of foreign debt, which allows for the pricing of currency cross-hedging effects in multi-currency debt portfolios, artificial currency unit-denominated debt instruments as well as currency swaps.     

Robust portfolios that do not tilt factor exposure

Robust portfolios reduce the uncertainty in portfolio performance. In particular, the worst-case optimization approach is based on the Markowitz model and form portfolios that are more robust compared to mean–variance portfolios. However, since the robust formulation finds a different portfolio from the optimal mean–variance portfolio, the two portfolios may have dissimilar levels of factor exposure. In most cases, investors need a portfolio that is not only robust but also has a desired level of dependency on factor movement for managing the total portfolio risk. Therefore, we introduce new robust formulations that allow investors to control the factor exposure of portfolios. Empirical analysis shows that the robust portfolios from the proposed formulations are more robust than the classical mean–variance approach with comparable levels of exposure on fundamental factors.     

Using FSBT technique with Rough Set Theory for personal investment portfolio analysis

This study proposes a novel Forward Search and Backward Trace (FSBT) technique based on Rough Set Theory to improve data analysis and extend the scope of observations made from sample data to solve personal investment portfolio problems. Rough Set Theory mathematically classifies data into class sets. The class set with the most objects may generate one decision rule. The rules generated from RST are rough and fragmented, that are very difficult to interpret the information. An empirical case is used to generate more than 85 rules by the RST method in comparison with FSBT method which only generated 14 rules. This result can show our proposed method is better than traditional RST method based on class sets that contain the most objects. Much of human knowledge is described in natural language. It is a very important thing to convert information from computer databases into normal human language. Sample data taken from features with the same backgrounds are used to compile different portfolios that investment companies and investment advisors can employ to satisfy the investor’ needs. The method not only can provide decision-making rules, but also can offer alternative strategies for better data analysis. We believe that the FSBT technique can be fully applied in research on investment marketing.     

Evolution of fuzzy classifiers using genetic programming

In this paper, we propose a genetic programming (GP) based approach to evolve fuzzy rule based classifiers. For a c-class problem, a classifier consists of c trees. Each tree, T _i , of the multi-tree classifier represents a set of rules for class i. During the evolutionary process, the inaccurate/inactive rules of the initial set of rules are removed by a cleaning scheme. This allows good rules to sustain and that eventually determines the number of rules. In the beginning, our GP scheme uses a randomly selected subset of features and then evolves the features to be used in each rule. The initial rules are constructed using prototypes, which are generated randomly as well as by the fuzzy k-means (FKM) algorithm. Besides, experiments are conducted in three different ways: Using only randomly generated rules, using a mixture of randomly generated rules and FKM prototype based rules, and with exclusively FKM prototype based rules. The performance of the classifiers is comparable irrespective of the type of initial rules. This emphasizes the novelty of the proposed evolutionary scheme. In this context, we propose a new mutation operation to alter the rule parameters. The GP scheme optimizes the structure of rules as well as the parameters involved. The method is validated on six benchmark data sets and the performance of the proposed scheme is found to be satisfactory.     

Non-linear equity portfolio variance reduction under a mean–variance framework—A delta–gamma approach

To examine the variance reduction from portfolios with both primary and derivative assets we develop a mean–variance Markovitz portfolio management problem. By invoking the delta–gamma approximation we reduce the problem to a well-posed quadratic programming problem. From a practitioner’s perspective, the primary goal is to understand the benefits of adding derivative securities to portfolios of primary assets. Our numerical experiments quantify this variance reduction from sample equity portfolios to mixed portfolios (containing both equities and equity derivatives).     

Portfolio optimization with a neural network implementation of the coherent market hypothesis

Capital market research seems to be widely governed by traditional static linear models like arbitrage pricing theory and capital asset pricing model, though there is some evidence that better results can be achieved using nonlinear approaches. In this study we described a portfolio optimization model based on artificial neural networks embedded in the framework of a nonlinear dynamic capital market model, the coherent market hypothesis. The main advantage of this theory is that it drops the premise of rational investors and therefore relaxes the precondition of approximately normally distributed stock returns. Neural networks are used to estimate the return distributions in order to forecast the fundamental situation and the level of group behavior of the specific stocks. On the basis of these forecasts the relative stock performance is predicted and used to manage stock portfolios, In a simulation with out-of-sample data from 1991–1994 a portfolio constructed from the eight best ranked stocks achieved an annual return rate about 25% higher than that of the market portfolio and one built from the eight worst ranked stocks attained a return about 25% lower than the market portfolio's return rate. A hedging strategy based on the two aforementioned portfolios leads to a consistently positive annual return of about 25% regardless of the movements of the market portfolio with only 41% of the risk of a buy and hold strategy in the market portfolio.     

有效因子综合偏好强度与CVaR整合优化模型

本文从股票多维特征因子中选择有效因子,融合形成最大化有效因子综合偏好强度(IPS)的附加理性,构建并验证IPS-均值-CVaR投资组合优化模型。基于沪深300股2006~2015年数据分析显示:(1)有效因子IPS投资组合优越于单因子投资组合;(2)IPS方法相较于因子打分法,具有更优的多维数据整合功效;(3)IPS-均值-CVaR投资组合优化模型相对于均值-CVaR模型具有更优越的资产选择能力,也拓展了投资组合模型的多维数据处理能力和适用性。     

指数分布危险函数的经验Bayes双侧检验的收敛速度: Ⅱ型截尾情形

本文讨论了Ⅱ型截尾情形下指数分布危险函数的经验Bayes (EB)双侧检验问题. 利用概率密度函数的核估计构造了经验Bayes检验函数, 在适当的条件下获得了它的收敛速度.     

Prospective elementary teachers use of representation to reason algebraically

We used a teaching experiment to evaluate the preparation of preservice teachers to teach early algebra concepts in the elementary school with the goal of improving their ability to generalize and justify algebraic rules when using pattern-finding tasks. Nearly all of the elementary preservice teachers generalized explicit rules using symbolic notation but had trouble with justifications early in the experiment. The use of isomorphic tasks promoted their ability to justify their generalizations and to understand the relationship of the coefficient and y-intercept to the models constructed with pattern blocks. Based on critical events in the teaching experiment, we developed a scale to map changes in preservice teachers’ understanding. Features of the tasks emerged that contributed to this understanding.     

Pareto分布参数的经验Bayes检验的收敛速度:NA样本情形

本文讨论了NA(negativeassociation)样本情形Pareto分布参数的经验Bayes(EB)单侧和双侧检验问题.利用概率密度函数的核估计构造了参数的经验Bayes检验函数,在适当的条件下证明了所提出的经验Bayes检验函数的渐近最优(a.o.)性并获得了其收敛速度.     

On value preserving and growth optimal portfolios

In a discrete-time financial market setting, the paper relates various concepts introduced for dynamic portfolios (both in discrete and in continuous time). These concepts are: value preserving portfolios, numeraire portfolios, interest oriented portfolios, and growth optimal portfolios. It will turn out that these concepts are all associated with a unique martingale measure which agrees with the minimal martingale measure only for complete markets.