中国旱涝时空分布特征分析

基于帕尔默干旱指数 (Palmer drought severity index, PDSI) 中国数据库和中国160个站点的月降水资料, 运用趋势分析、对比分析和EOF等方法, 对1961–2010年间中国旱涝时空演化特征进行了分析. 结果表明: 春季的PDSI的年代际空间分布特征与PDSI 的年代际空间分布特征相似; 夏季和秋季的PDSI的地区差异比较明显, 尤其是秋季更为明显. 从时间演化上来看, 中国华北、东北、西南地区的变干趋势较明显, 另外变湿比较明显的区域为西北西部. 对1961–2010年夏季的PDSI进行经验正交函数 (EOF) 分析, 可以发现, 20世纪80年代以来, 中国夏季干旱和洪涝更加频繁, 且旱涝强度也增加, 尤其是华北、西南、东北地区的干旱和华东地区的洪涝. 关键词： PDSI 干旱 洪涝 EOF     

Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains （above 25mm/day） in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country＇s average.     

ERA-Interim中的中国地区水分循环要素的时空演变特征分析

本文利用1979–2011年欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 的再分析资料 (ERA-Interim), 运用经验正交函数展开 (EOF) 和相似系数等方法, 对中国地区水分循环诸要素的时空特征进行了计算与分析. 研究结果表明: 在空间分布特征上, 蒸发量、纬向水汽通量和经向水汽通量均与大气可降水量的空间分布最相似, 大气可降水量和降水量均与蒸发量的空间分布最相似, 降水量与纬向水汽通量的相似系数略大于其与经向水汽通量的相似系数; 在时间演变上: 年降水量在1979–2002年间, 呈现非常显著的上升趋势; 在2002–2011 年间, 呈现显著的下降趋势. 年蒸发量在该两个时段的变化趋势与年降水量一致, 但均比年降水量明显; 年蒸发量在1979–2011年间呈现非常显著的上升趋势, 其年际变化明显小于年降水量. 可降水量和水汽通量散度在1979–2011年间的长期变化趋势不明显, 但可降水量的年际变化呈阶段式增大, 水汽通量的年际变化一直较大. 纬向与经向水汽通量均存在2–3年为周期的年际变化; 此外, 纬向水汽通量在1979–2011年间还存在显著的下降趋势. 春、秋季的水汽通量都存在显著下降的长期变化趋势, 夏、冬季的长期变化趋势不明显. 四季都存在2–3年为周期的年际变化. 此外, 夏季还存在明显的年代际转折. 关键词： 水分循环 时空特征 EOF 相似系数     

基于气候变化综合指数的中国近50年来气候变化敏感性研究

气候变化指数是目前有关气候变化研究领域的前沿课题, 国内外在气候变化研究领域存在着许多具体指数,但关于综合指数的研究却非常少见. 本文将基于温度和降水的单一要素指数的气候变化信息进行综合, 得到一个综合气候变化指数CCI (climate change index)以评估中国近50年来的气候变化及其区域敏感性.指数大小表征气候突变前后极端气候事件的频数之差, 反映该地区应对气候变化的能力,反映该地区对气候变化的敏感性. 通过该指数可以获得多种气候变化的相关信息,从而为更好地应对极端气候事件提供判断依据. 研究结果显示,内蒙古大部、东北中部、云南以及西北中部等地CCI指数较大, 说明这些地区相对于气候突变之前极端气候事件频发. 中国各个省份中的所有站点的CCI指数平均值表明,中国江南和西南东部对气候变化不敏感; 华北和东北地区极端气候事件频发.气候变化在高纬度地区和热带、 亚热带地区表现明显,北方和西南比较敏感,而黄河以南敏感性较弱, 沿海地区由于受季风及台风带来的强降水的影响, CCI指数相对偏大,敏感性较强.     

中国夏季大气水分循环特征及再分析资料对比分析

大气水分循环过程耦合了降水、蒸发、水汽输送等多个环节.本文利用ERA-Interim与MERRA再分析资料,研究了中国1979—2012年夏季大气水分循环的时空变化特征及其对全球气候变化的响应,并对两套再分析资料在中国地区的适用性进行了评估.结果表明:1)中国夏季降水、蒸发、可降水量均自东南沿海地区向西北内陆递减;降水与蒸发相互联系、相互制约,由于不同地区下垫面物理条件的差异,它们之间同时存在正、负反馈的影响机制,可降水量主要集中在地面至700 h Pa高度,约占总量的75%;2)近34年大气水分循环显著变化的区域主要集中在西部和东北地区,西部内陆地区可降水量显著增加,北方大部分地区纬向水汽输送通量显著减小,西北北部地区经向水汽输送通量显著增大,蒸发量与水汽输送的气候变化可能是造成可降水量增加的主要原因;3)Interim与MERRA资料对降水量时空变化特征的再现能力要优于蒸发量,此外,它们对降水与蒸发气候变化趋势的模拟结果差别较大,使用时应该慎重;两套资料对可降水量与水汽输送通量的时空变化特征以及气候变化趋势的模拟比较一致,可信度较高;4)Interim资料对西南、东南以及东北区域夏季水循环均有较好的描述能力;而MERRA资料更适用于研究西南和西北区域的水汽收支情况.     

印度洋中北部声速剖面结构的时空变化及其物理机理研究

海洋的声速结构对水下声传播有重要影响,在印度洋中北部复杂多变的海洋物理和水文环境中, 获取声速剖面的时空统计分布规律对水下目标探测和水下声通信有重要意义. 由于垂直梯度法在声速结构分析中的局限性及其在印度洋中北部海域的适用性问题, 采用多元统计分析中的最优分割法对声速跃层进行分析,并应用最近10年的地转海洋学实时观测阵 数据对印度洋中北部海域声速剖面的特征量进行了计算,获得了声速跃层的垂直结构特征和时空变化规律; 还利用经验正交函数(EOF)表示方法,分析了印度洋中北部声速剖面拟合精度随EOF阶次的分布特点. 根据印度洋的海洋物理特征,揭示了声速剖面特征量时空演变的内在物理机理.研究结果表明: 最优分割法是适合印度洋声速结构的跃层判断方法,并提出了相应的判断准则参数; 声速剖面拟合精度随EOF阶次变化的区域性分布特征较明显,其季节性变化较小; 印度洋中北部的深海声道轴只在5°S以南明显存在,在15°S---25°S 附近海域存在三个跃层;印度洋中北部声速剖面结构可分为单跃层、双跃层Ⅰ型、 双跃层Ⅱ型和三跃层四种类型以及春夏秋冬四个季节模态. 声速剖面的分析结果对于水声传播和声纳系统的使用具有一定参考意义.     

A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent(LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature(SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change(1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST,along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO.     

近60年新疆降水趋势与波动机制分析

用小波多尺度分析和回归等方法研究了近60年新疆降水记录的波动与趋势特征, 结果发现21世纪头十年降水亦然保持增加趋势, 但春、夏降水已呈弱的非线性下降趋势, 秋、冬季节降水增加趋势明显. 这可能与气候暖化的季节不均匀性有关. 年降水量的振荡与北大西洋涛动(NAO)关系密切, 二者约80%的方差都集中在年际尺度和多年代尺度成分两个带上, 年际变化之间呈显著负相关关系. NAO的多年代尺度成分位相超前降水10年左右, 而大西洋海温的多年代尺度涛动与之相差5年, 后者与降水的关联更为密切. "极差"分析表明, 对应于NAO的极端正或负位相事件, 下游的降水和水汽环境明显不同. 在NAO极端负位相年, 中亚和新疆降水都明显增加, 来自欧洲南部的水汽输送和中纬度瞬变涡动水汽输送均偏强, 中亚大气可降水量上升, 冷空气路径偏西, 瞬变天气系统易得到西南水汽输送带的配合, 水汽辐合增强, 有利于新疆和中亚的降水. 反之, 西风带水汽输送偏弱, 天气过程偏少, 降水量偏小, 易发生干旱. 因此, NAO的异常是新疆和中亚降水年际波动的主要原因之一. 关键词： 新疆降水 北大西洋涛动 水汽输送 瞬变涡动     

Information Geometric Theory in the Prediction of Abrupt Changes in System Dynamics

Detection and measurement of abrupt changes in a process can provide us with important tools for decision making in systems management. In particular, it can be utilised to predict the onset of a sudden event such as a rare, extreme event which causes the abrupt dynamical change in the system. Here, we investigate the prediction capability of information theory by focusing on how sensitive information-geometric theory (information length diagnostics) and entropy-based information theoretical method (information flow) are to abrupt changes. To this end, we utilise a non-autonomous Kramer equation by including a sudden perturbation to the system to mimic the onset of a sudden event and calculate time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and various statistical quantities with the help of numerical simulations. We show that information length diagnostics predict the onset of a sudden event better than the information flow. Furthermore, it is explicitly shown that the information flow like any other entropy-based measures has limitations in measuring perturbations which do not affect entropy.     

利用幂律尾指数的中国降水突变检测与归因

利用中国气象局国家气候中心740站点1960—2000年日降水观测资料,研究日降水幂律尾指数随时间的演变特征,结果表明中国华北、东北和西北地区0—7mm日降水幂律尾指数在1979—1980年之间发生突变,由此推测中国北方地区的大尺度气候背景在上世纪70年代末80年代初曾出现较大变化.该突变与厄尔尼诺和南方涛动(ENSO)综合指数联系紧密,可能是造成北方干旱化的重要原因之一.进一步分析表明,0—29mm日降水过程平稳性较好,30mm以上日降水过程平稳性相对较差,使得长期的暴雨预测面临严峻的挑战. 关键词： 幂律尾指数 突变 北方干旱化 暴雨     

基于贝叶斯理论的全球海温异常对500 hPa 温度场的影响分析

本文利用经验正交函数(EOF) 将海表温度(SST) 距平场进行分解, 得到一组相互正交的模态构成重构空间, 然后在该空间中展开500 hPa温度场, 进一步借助贝叶斯分析方法定义各个模态对温度场的影响指数, 并研究指数随不同海温分布型(模态) 的变化特征. 结果发现SST场在4-6月份对500 hPa温度场的影响较大, 且气候发生转变后, 不同海温分布型对温度场的影响不同.     

Analysis of precipitation characteristics of South and North China based on the power-law tail exponents

Precipitation sequence is a typical nonlinear and chaotic observational series, and studies on precipitation forecasts are restricted to the use of traditional linear statistical methods, especially when analysing the regional characteristics of precipitation. In the context of 20 stations＇ daily precipitation series （from 1956 to 2000） in South China （SC） and North China （NC）, we divide each precipitation series into many self-stationary segments by using the heuristic segmentation algorithm （briefly BG algorithm）. For each station＇s precipitation series, we calculate the exponent of power-law tall （EPT） of the cumulative probability distribution of segments with a length larger than l for precipitation and temperature series. Our results show that the power-law decay of the cumulative probability distribution of stationary segments might be a common attribution for precipitation and other nonstationary time series; the EPT somewhat indicates the precipitation duration and its spatial distribution that might be different from area to area. The EPT in NC is larger than in SC; Meanwhile, EPT might be another effective way to study the abrupt changes in nonlinear and nonstationary time series.     

Statistical techniques analysis of SST and SLP in the Persian Gulf

Thirty-four years of data (1967-2000) are used to investigate the variability pattern relevant to air-sea interaction in the Persian Gulf. The patterns are derived using statistical techniques, such as empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and singular value decomposition (SVD). Statistical analysis methods are applied to determine the coupled modes of variability of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP). The significant of the air-sea interaction is found by a strong resemblance between EOF and SVD eigenvectors and expansion coefficients of SST and SLP. We find that the four leading EOF patterns of SST together account for 99.8% of the total monthly SST variance and 94.4% of the SLP variance. The zero contour in the first SST EOF identified the front which separates the Persian Gulf cyclonic gyres.The SVD modes provide more information on the coupling between the fields than the modes obtained by EOF methods. Lagged correlation analysis between SVD1(SLP) and SVD1(SST) indicates that the coupling is strongest when SLP leads SST by −12, −6, 6 and 12 months. Therefore, the first mode of the SVD analysis seems to depict an air-to-sea forcing, in which the sea response to the atmospheric changes appears with an semiannual and interannual time lag.The two leading SVD modes of variability of the coupled SST and SLP fields account for 99.6% of the total variance. The main patterns of both variables of variability of both variables independently provide considerable information on the coupling, but only one of the two variables dominates each of the two first coupled modes.The first coupled mode of variability between the SST and atmospheric pressure can be described as a strengthening and weakening of the cyclonic gyres, which seems to force fluctuations in a north-south dipole structure in the SST by Ekman upwelling which is a wind-related process. The atmospheric forcing of the SST changes is detectable in the sea with a lag of 1 and 6 months.     

中国不同区域气候突变的前兆信号

近年来, 临界慢化现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋向于临界性突变方面展示了重要潜力. 在此基于临界慢化的理念, 对含有不同噪声的中国一级气象地理区划的11大区域的气温观测资料进行处理, 研究气候突变的前兆信号. 首先利用Mann-Kendall (M-K)方法准确的找出各个区域的突变位置, 然后计算了表征临界慢化现象的自相关系数以此寻找气候突变前兆信号, 并研究了不同噪声对气候突变前兆信号的影响. 结果表明, 针对不同的信噪比、不同区域的气温资料在气候突变发生前5–10年均出现了自 相关系数增大的临界慢化现象, 临界慢化现象可能是气候突变发生前的一个前兆信号; 噪声对气候突变前兆信号的检测结果影响较小, 论证了临界慢化现象检测突变前兆信号的可靠性, 为该方法在实际观测资料中的应用提供了实验基础. 关键词： 气候突变 临界慢化 M-K方法 前兆信号     

Mott transition of excitons in coupled quantum wells

In this work we study the phase diagram of indirect excitons in coupled quantum wells and show that the system undergoes a phase transition to an unbound electron-hole plasma. This transition is manifested as an abrupt change in the photoluminescence linewidth and peak energy at some critical power density and temperature. By measuring the exciton diamagnetism, we show that the transition is associated with an abrupt increase in the exciton radius. We find that the transition is stimulated by the presence of direct excitons in one of the wells and show that they serve as a catalyst of the transition.     

Quantum Dynamics of Entanglement and Single Excitation Transfer in LH1-RC-Type Trimer

In this paper,we study quantum dynamics of entanglement and single excitation transfer(SET) in an LH1-RC-type trimer which can describe a basic unit cell in the LH1-RC complex in the photosynthetic process.It is shown that there exists a sudden change of entanglement at the critic point of quantum phase transition(QPT) of the system at low temperatures,the entanglement sudden change caused by the QPT is suppressed at higher temperatures.We investigate the influence of environment on entanglement and SET.We show the generation of the dephasing-assisted entanglement between a donor and an acceptor and the existence of the steady-state entanglement,and demonstrate the entanglement transfer from donor-donor entanglement to donor-acceptor entanglement in the dynamic evolution.We reveal the close relation between the SET probability and donor-acceptor entanglement.Especially,we find that the SET probability is proportional to the amount of donor-acceptor entanglement under certain conditions.     

Quantum Dynamics of Entanglement and Single Excitation Transfer in LH1-RC-Type Trimer

In this paper, we study quantum dynamics of entanglement and single excitation transfer (SET) in an LH1-RC-type trimer which can describe a basic unit cell in the LH1-RC complex in the photosynthetic process. It is shown that there exists a sudden change of entanglement at the critic point of quantum phase transition (QPT) of the system at low temperatures, the entanglement sudden change caused by the QPT is suppressed at higher temperatures. We investigate the influence of environment on entanglement and SET. We show the generation of the dephasing-assisted entanglement between a donor and an acceptor and the existence of the steady-state entanglement, and demonstrate the entanglement transfer from donor-donor entanglement to donor-acceptor entanglement in the dynamic evolution. We reveal the close relation between the SET probability and donor-acceptor entanglement. Especially, we find that the SET probability is proportional to the amount of donor-acceptor entanglement under certain conditions.     

Controls over spatial and seasonal variations on isotopic composition of the precipitation along the central and eastern portion of Brazil

Based on Global Network Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) isotopic data set, a review of the spatial and temporal variability of δ¹⁸O and δ²H in precipitation was conducted throughout central and eastern Brazil, indicating that dynamic interactions between Intertropical and South Atlantic Convergence Zones, Amazon rainforest, and Atlantic Ocean determine the variations on the isotopic composition of precipitation over this area. Despite the seasonality and latitude effects observed, a fair correlation with precipitation amount was found. In addition, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) air mass back trajectories were used to quantify the factors controlling daily variability in stable isotopes in precipitation. Through a linear multiple regression analysis, it was observed that temporal variations were consistent with the meteorological parameters derived from HYSPLIT, particularly precipitation amount along the trajectory and mix depth, but are not dependent on vapour residence time in the atmosphere. These findings also indicate the importance of convective systems to control the isotopic composition of precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions.     

基于多光谱数据的植被水分反演及其在旱情评估中的应用分析

植被作为干旱的承载体,其含水量的变化反映了旱情的时空分布以及受旱程度。文章从监测原理、植被水分表征以及遥感数据反演模型等三个方面,开展了基于多光谱遥感数据的植被水分反演方法研究。以2010年春季西南四省为应用案例,进行了植被水分的反演和时空分析,并与气象数据进行了相关性分析。结果表明:在2010年旱情中,降水对植被水分变化具有一定的影响;然而由于植被吸收降水的过程是一个滞后的过程,因而降水的变化对植被水的影响也存在一定滞后效应。在上述分析基础之上,从时间和空间尺度对植被水分在旱情监测和评估中的应用进行了评价。通过时间合成以及与其他数据(如历史数据)的结合,可克服多光谱数据的自身不足,提高多光谱遥感数据在旱情监测和评估的应用性。     

光流动态纹理在土地利用/覆盖变化检测研究中的应用

建议了一种基于光流动态纹理（optical flow dynamic texture）的高分辨率遥感影像变化检测新方法,用一种运动的关系描述地物变化,能够在多时相高分辨率遥感影像中自动获取土地利用和土地覆盖的变化信息。利用光流理论从原理上描述了地物渐变的过程,突破了以往遥感变化检测方法中认为地物发生突变的假设。该方法的流程简单,易于在目前的土地管理、城市规划等需要发现用地变化的系统和软件中使用。该方法考虑到了多时相遥感影像间的时间维度特征,为遥感变化检测提供了更加丰富的信息,进而改善了变化检测方法主要依赖空间维度信息的现状。以光流动态纹理作为变化的基本体现,结合光谱信息共同用于高分辨率遥感影像的支持向量机分类后变化检测,方法顾及了遥感影像时间维度的纹理,相较大多数空间纹理其数据量较小;纹理计算仅需设定一个参数,自动程度较高;可缓解行业中大量人工解译的现状。通过利用中国大庆市杜尔伯特蒙古自治县2011年和2012年QuickBird影像对该方法的有效性进行了评价。深入分析了不同的光流平滑系数α对该方法的影响,以及对地物变化描述效果的影响。实验结果显示,该方法效果理想,总体精度达到87.29%、Kappa系数达到0.850 7,其精度优于单纯利用光谱信息的分类后变化检测方法。