基于教育部评价指标的高校发展仿真模型建立与应用研究

高校管理是一项涉及多层面、多要素变量的复杂系统,教育部建立高校评价指标体系对各高校现发展水平进行评价,促进国家教育发展.如何建立科学的评价指标体系?如何提高评价效应已有很多研究.但,未来发展仿真研究很少,因此,进行依据评价指标建立仿真方程、建立可靠性高的仿真模型研究很有意义.本文运用逐树设撤关联数结构行为检验建模法,基于教育部高校评价指标体系建立6个流位流率对构成的流位流率系;分别应用流率历史枝、主撑枝、条件枝法构建6棵流率入树基本结构,基于历史数据建立流率历史枝变量仿真方程;基于教育部高校评价指标的内涵等式建立刻画未来发展的主撑枝变量的仿真方程,基于表函数、延迟函数等建立条件枝变量仿真方程;通过设撤关联数分别进行T1(t)、T1(t)T2(t)、…、T1(t)T2(t)T3(t)…T6(t)各入树组合的结构行为检验,提高模型的可靠性,构建了高校管理系统的系统动力学(SD)评价仿真模型.通过高校最重要人力资源教师发展规划实施调控函数的不同调控参数下分别进行全系统仿真,分别揭示十二五、十三五期间各年满足教育部评价指标的教师数、在校生数、校建面积、教学设备、专业、收支差的数据复杂定量变化结果.为典型高校未来发展提供了具普遍意义的决策依据,为基于评价指标建立仿真方程,为提高仿真模型可靠性提供了新方法.     

乡村产业振兴“基地+农户”同创共享绿色供应链反馈仿真分析

针对养殖企业沼气沼肥供应链不可持续,产生二次污染严重影响生态环境,且农民增收乏力,乡村产业振兴难以推进现状,本文围绕生猪养殖业,并以南昌大学系统工程科研教学基地明鑫农场及周边亟待振兴的农户为例,提出构建"基地+农户"同创共享绿色供应链系统,运用系统动力学方法建立仿真模型,计算反馈环个数;然后结合仿真、反馈环及延迟三组合分析法,从社会效益、环境效益和经济效益三方面对该绿色供应链系统的振兴效益进行反馈仿真分析,并提出相应管理对策,为我国乡村产业振兴提供实践道路.     

逐树组合仿真检验建模分析——以河北津龙公司规划效应分析为例

中国以创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享发展为理念,全面制定十三五发展规划,因此采用科学新方法对规划效应进行分析,是当前重要的研究内容.采用新建的逐树设撤关联数组合仿真检验建模法,对河北省津龙公司十二五、十三五发展规划效应进行定量仿真分析.建立了产、供、销、生物质资源转化、生物质能源开发、种养结合特色农产品生产9棵流率基本入树,建立了81个仿真方程,逐树设撤关联数组合仿真检验9棵入树可靠性后,建立系统动力学反馈仿真流图模型,进行规划发展参数调控效应仿真分析,基于仿真结果提出效应高的规划对策.     

具有反馈性能的传染病传播模型

传染病是人类社会面对的严重威胁之一,也是困扰世界医学界的长期难题.文中首先对传染病的传播机理进行了分析研究,将其传播分为自然传播和人为控制两种状态,然后以微分方程理论为基础,运用反馈控制理论分别建立了自然传播状态的闭环自激正反馈微分方程模型和有人为控制时的闭环负反馈微分方程模型,并引入控制度概念把上述两种反馈模型结合起来以反映人为控制因素对传染病传播系统的影响,最后以2003年爆发的SARS为例采用计算机编程仿真,结果与实际比较吻合,并提出了应对传染病的若干对策,为传染病的传播预测、有效预防和控制提供了一定的理论依据.     

北疆城市化发展的经济社会资源环境耦合协调关系分析

对北疆主要地区城市化发展中的经济社会资源环境四个系统的协调发展关系进行研究及预测,为区域的可持续发展奠定基础.首先,建立了区域经济社会资源环境的耦合协调度指标体系,以北疆主要的5个地区为例,评价四个系统的发展水平;其次,运用耦合协调度模型的计算方法,对北疆5个地区的经济社会资源环境的耦合协调度进行实证分析;最后,引入ARMA模型预测法,对该区5个地州的经济社会资源环境的未来耦合协调度进行预测.结果表明:北疆五个主要地区的经济和环境增长较快,且二者互不影响,社会和资源的变化趋势不显著;四大系统的耦合协调度整体呈现波动上升趋势,主要制约因素是社会保障;未来5年四大系统的发展趋势与前10年的相似,总体表现为小幅上升的发展态势.     

Allee效应下的一类捕食-食饵系统的动力分析

建立了一个食饵具有一个保护的区域和非保护区域的捕食-食饵模型,在考虑环境制约的情况下,同时考虑了保护区的食饵具有Allee效应.根据食饵与捕食者的生物意义以及一些参数的快慢两个时间尺度,将系统分为快速系统和慢速系统.通过动力分析,给出了慢速系统平衡点的存在性、全局稳定性、Hopf分支以及极限环存在的条件,并通过数值分析及数值模拟加以验证结果表明,Allee效应的存在改变了两物种的共存的条件,使系统动力行为更为复杂.     

军工企业军民产品融合发展策略系统仿真研究

在对军工企业军民产品融合发展模式进行系统分析的基础上,建立刻画其发展模式的系统动力学(SD)数学模型.利用Vensim软件仿真与调控分析技术,对影响军工企业军民产品融合发展的主要变量进行调控分析,通过分析提出相应的管理方针,实现了用系统科学的方法有效分析军工企业管理问题的目的.     

HIV-1的表型间变异与免疫因子相互作用的动力学模型

该文建立了一个描述两种不同的 HIV-1 表型与细胞因子相互作用的动力学模型. 作者用K_m单调系统理论研究了 HIV-1 中两种不同表型:噬巨嗜细胞型 (NSI) 和嗜淋巴细胞型 (SI) 与两种在HIV感染过程中的重要指标性细胞因子:IL-2 和 CAF的发展趋势. 在 HIV-1 感染过程中,两种细胞表型与两种细胞因子之间形成了一种负反馈环. 用 Hill 函数表达这种负反馈作用. 结果表明模型的平衡态的数量为奇数个,它们之间满足一种K_m 偏序,并且第奇数个平衡态是渐近稳定的,而第偶数平衡态是不稳定的. 此外还得到了各个平衡态的吸引域. 其生物学的意义为:即使系统存在较低水平的平衡态, 感染后的病毒载量仍会趋向于一个较高的水平. 这个结论和临床研究的发现是一致的.     

一类SEIS模型的分岔及混沌

建立了一类更为符合实际疫情的种群动态变化下新的SEIS模型,得到了系统的平衡点渐近稳定条件、Hopf分岔以及稳定的极限环,给出了多参数变化对系统混沌的影响和易感种群增减对系统混沌区域伸缩的制约,并附有数值模拟和仿真.     

基于系统动力学的城市轨道交通经济效益分析——以上海轨道交通为例

城市轨道交通作为城市投资最大的基础设施,其经济效益在区域经济发展过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色,其外部性效应对于区域经济发展方向的引导作用也已逐步凸显.通过分析城市轨道交通经济效益产生路径,综合运用系统动力学和回归分析方法,定量分析轨道交通与区域经济发展问关系以及未来趋势.以上海市2004-2014年的相关数据为蓝本实例论证了轨道交通的建设运营对于城市第三产业的促进效应极为明显,同时在长期看来,轨道交通对于区域经济的增长效应将会逐步扩大.     

Singularly Perturbed Monotone Systems and an Application to Double Phosphorylation Cycles

The theory of monotone dynamical systems has been found very useful in the modeling of some gene, protein, and signaling networks. In monotone systems, every net feedback loop is positive. On the other hand, negative feedback loops are important features of many systems, since they are required for adaptation and precision. This paper shows that, provided that these negative loops act at a comparatively fast time scale, the main dynamical property of (strongly) monotone systems, convergence to steady states, is still valid. An application is worked out to a double-phosphorylation “futile cycle” motif which plays a central role in eukaryotic cell signaling.      

Capacity augmentation of a supply chain for a short lifecycle product: A system dynamics framework

For an innovative product characterized by short product lifecycle and high demand uncertainty, investment in capacity buildup has to be done cautiously. Otherwise either the product’s market diffusion is impeded or the manufacturer is left with unutilized capacity. Using the right information for making capacity augmentation decisions is critical in facing this challenge. In this paper, we propose a method for identifying critical information flows using the system dynamics model of a two-echelon supply chain. The fundamental premise of system dynamics methodology is that (system) structure determines (its) behavior. Using loop dominance analysis method we study the feedback loop structure of the supply chain system. The outcome is a set of dominant loops that determine the dynamics of capacity growth. It is revealed that the delivery delay information has little effect while the loop that connects retail sales with production order affects the dynamics significantly. Modifying this loop yields appropriate capacity augmentation decisions resulting in higher performance. What-if analyses bring out effects of modifying other structural elements. In conclusion, we claim that the information feedback based methodology is general enough to be useful in designing decision support systems for capacity augmentation. The limitations of the model are also discussed and possible extensions identified.     

Subloops of indecomposable RA loops

Summary An RA loop is a (necessarily Moufang) loop whose loop rings in any characteristic are alternative, but not associative. There are seven classes of finite indecomposable RA loops. In this paper, we find the indecomposable subloops and the indecomposable nonabelian groups which can appear inside the loops in each class.     

Oscillations in multi-stable monotone systems with slowly varying feedback

The study of dynamics of gene regulatory networks is of increasing interest in systems biology. A useful approach to the study of these complex systems is to view them as decomposed into feedback loops around open loop monotone systems. Key features of the dynamics of the original system are then deduced from the input-output characteristics of the open loop system and the sign of the feedback. This paper extends these results, showing how to use the same framework of input-output systems in order to prove existence of oscillations, if the slowly varying strength of the feedback depends on the state of the system.     

MBA项目评价与改进系统的反馈动态复杂性分析

中国MBA教育的评价与改进是当前MBA教育发展的瓶颈,为了寻求提升MBA教育质量的有效方法,用系统动力学流率基本入树建模法构建了MBA教育的SD模型.通过用极小基模生成集法对模型中的反馈环进行分析,找到系统基模.在MBA教育SD模型中存在两个增长上限基模和一个舍本逐末基模.根据学习型组织理论:找到管理系统中的基模并用系统思考的方法正确处理基模,是保障系统运行的重要方法.但是,对于一个象MBA教育项目这样的典型动态复杂系统,发现其中所有的基模往往非常困难.本文提供了一个迅速并准确找到复杂系统中全部基模的方法,即极小基模生成集法.不论我们面临的动态系统有多么复杂,都可以使用该方法来分析其中的反馈环结构.构造SD流率基本入树模型,运用该方法进行反馈动态分析,提出了改进中国MBA教育的管理策略.     

基于系统动力学的产业集群对企业绩效的影响机制分析

以系统动力学为基础,研究了产业集群对企业绩效的影响机制。分别建立了外部资源环境、发展规模及科研创新能力对企业绩效的影响系统因果图,在此基础上开展了产业集群对企业绩效影响的全过程动力分析。以上海市医药制造产业集群为例开展了实证研究,使用Vensim模拟软件进行了模拟仿真,详尽探讨了影响机制中正负反馈回路。结果表明,产业集群的外部资源环境、产业集群的发展规模和产业集群的科研创新能力对集群内企业的发展有着正向影响,政府和集群内企业可以通过加大对集群科研实力的投资力度、改善产业集群外部环境、扩大产业集群发展规模三个方面来提高产业集群内的企业绩效,促进产业集群内企业的可持续性发展。     

Stability Robustness of LQ Optimal Regulators Based on Multirate Sampling of Plant Output

The stability robustness of stable feedback loops, designed on the basis of multirate-output controllers (MROCs), is analyzed in this paper. For MROC-based feedback loops, designed in order to achieve LQ optimal regulation, we characterize additive and multiplicative norm-bounded perturbations of the loop transfer function matrix which do not destabilize the closed-loop system. New sufficient conditions for stability robustness, in terms of elementary MROC matrices, are presented. Moreover, guaranteed stability margins for MROC-based LQ optimal regulators are suggested for the first time. These margins are obtained on the basis of a fundamental spectral factorization equality, called the modified return difference equality, and are expressed directly in terms of elementary cost and system matrices. Sufficient conditions in order to guarantee the suggested stability margins are established. Finally, the connection between the suggested stability margins and the selection of cost weighting matrices is investigated and useful guidelines for choosing proper weighting matrices are presented.     

北京城市水资源供需系统研究

在研究北京市水资源供需现状的基础上,采用系统动力学方法构建了城市水资源供需模型.利用系统思考中学习型组织的信息反馈回路模式,引入基于可持续发展系统生存回路的水资源供需平衡指标,采用反映供需关系紧张的水供需一次、二次平衡作为衡量地区水危机的变量.按照人口增长与人均综合用水定额不同组合下的城市水需求总量,得到未来北京市水资源供需平衡变化的四种情境,通过动态模拟,分析不同情况下满足水需求的供应方案.结果显示,北京市现有的水资源条件与城市发展需水要求还有较大距离,应在挖掘本地水资源的基础上,依靠南水北调工程等境外调水,解决地区缺水的矛盾.     

Decentralized event-based control: Stability analysis and experimental evaluation

Event-based control aims at reducing the amount of information which is communicated between sensors, actuators and controllers in a networked control system. The feedback link is only closed at times at which an event indicates the need for an information update to retain a desired performance. Between consecutive event times the control loop acts as a continuous system, whereas at the event times it performs a state jump. Thus, the event-based control loop belongs to the class of hybrid dynamical systems. In this paper a new method for decentralized event-based control is proposed. Two methods are presented for the stability analysis of the decentralized event-based state feedback control of physically interconnected systems. The comparison principle leads to a stability criterion that provides an upper bound for the coupling strength for which the stability of the uncoupled event-based control loops implies ultimate boundedness of the interconnected event-based system. It is shown that ultimate boundedness of the event-based state-feedback loop is implied by the asymptotic stability of the continuous state-feedback system. Furthermore, it is explained how the number of events can be reduced by estimating the interconnection signals between the subsystems and two different estimation methods are proposed. The derived methods are demonstrated for a thermofluid process by simulation and experiments.     

The Verification of Dynamic Simulation Models

This paper is concerned with the use of ‘loop analysis’ in the evaluation and validation of dynamic simulation models. The part that loop analysis plays in the overall validation process is described, and it is shown, by reference to the analysis of a complex model, how the model's behaviour may be investigated. The analysis proceeds by identifying some of the elements of system behaviour such as damping, phase-shifts and gain/delay factors, and, in the process, highlights those feedback loops that are pseudo-positive and/or unconformable. In addition to the validation aspect of the use of loop analysis, there is a valuable contribution towards the knowledge and insight of the model-builder, enabling him better to identify areas of the system which may benefit from re-design.