基于教育部评价指标的高校发展仿真模型建立与应用研究

高校管理是一项涉及多层面、多要素变量的复杂系统,教育部建立高校评价指标体系对各高校现发展水平进行评价,促进国家教育发展.如何建立科学的评价指标体系?如何提高评价效应已有很多研究.但,未来发展仿真研究很少,因此,进行依据评价指标建立仿真方程、建立可靠性高的仿真模型研究很有意义.本文运用逐树设撤关联数结构行为检验建模法,基于教育部高校评价指标体系建立6个流位流率对构成的流位流率系;分别应用流率历史枝、主撑枝、条件枝法构建6棵流率入树基本结构,基于历史数据建立流率历史枝变量仿真方程;基于教育部高校评价指标的内涵等式建立刻画未来发展的主撑枝变量的仿真方程,基于表函数、延迟函数等建立条件枝变量仿真方程;通过设撤关联数分别进行T1(t)、T1(t)T2(t)、…、T1(t)T2(t)T3(t)…T6(t)各入树组合的结构行为检验,提高模型的可靠性,构建了高校管理系统的系统动力学(SD)评价仿真模型.通过高校最重要人力资源教师发展规划实施调控函数的不同调控参数下分别进行全系统仿真,分别揭示十二五、十三五期间各年满足教育部评价指标的教师数、在校生数、校建面积、教学设备、专业、收支差的数据复杂定量变化结果.为典型高校未来发展提供了具普遍意义的决策依据,为基于评价指标建立仿真方程,为提高仿真模型可靠性提供了新方法.

The Simulation Model Establishment and Application of University Development Based on the Evaluation Index of the Ministry of Education

University management is a complex system involving multi-level and multifactor variables.To evaluate the level of university development,the evaluation index was established,which can improve to the development of education in China.How to establish a scientific evaluation index system? And how to improve the effective of evaluation.Although above questions have been a lot of research,the Future Development Simulation research was rarely.So it is very meaningful to establish a simulation equation and establish a reliable simulation model based on the evaluation index.The six flow rates were established based on the evaluation index system of the university in the Ministry of Education,and the tree-by-tree association structure test method was used in this paper.And the six tree basic structure was established by the flow rate history branch,the main brace and the conditional branch method,respectively,the flow rate history branch variable simulation equation was established based on the historical data;Based on the connotation equation of the university evaluation index,the simulation equation of the main supporter of the future development was established.And based on the table function and the delay function,the simulation equation of the conditional branch variable was established;Through the withdrawal of the number of correlation were carried out separately T1(t),T1(t)T2(t),…,T1(t)T2(t)T3(t) … T6(t),the reliability of the model was to be improved by the test of structural behavior of each tree into the tree,and the system dynamics (SD) evaluation simulation model and simulation was to be built.Through the implementation of the control function of the most important human resources teachers in the development of the control parameters of the system under the control of the system were simulated,respectively,revealed to meet the evaluation of the Ministry of Education the complex quantitative results including teachers,the number of students,school construction area,the teaching equipment and the major,in the twelve five years and thirteen five years.Which can apply the future development of the typical universities,and to provide a universal decision-making basis for the establishment of simulation,to provides a new method for improving the reliability of the simulation model.