How does innovation''''s tail risk determine marginal tail risk of a stationary financial time series?

We discuss the relationship between the marginal tail risk probability and theinnovation's tail risk probability for some stationary financial time series models. We firstgive the main results on the tail behavior of a class of infinite weighted sums of randomvariables with heavy-tailed probabilities. And then, the main results are applied to threeimportant types of time series models; infinite order moving averages, the simple bilineartime series and the solutions of stochastic difference equations. The explicit formulasare given to describe how the marginal tail probabilities come from the innovation's tailprobabilities for these time series. Our results can be applied to the tail estimation of timeseries and are useful for risk analysis in finance.     

��ǿռ��������ȨM/M/n/m�Ŷ�ϵͳ

Concerning the problem that network congestion risk of computer network service system for some data frames having a full priority of transmission, a method about nonpreemptive limited-priority M/M/n/m queuing system model was proposed. Firstly, as the parameter r of limited-priority was introduced into the model, the data frame with full priority was converted to the one with limited priority. Secondly, in order to lower the risk of computer network service system and stabilize the network system further, the fairness among different priorities was studied in the model. Moreover, by making use of Total Probability Theorem, three results of the models, the average waiting time, the average dwelling time and the average queue length were obtained.     

M/M/1排队系统中的维修策略

以平均报酬率为目标函数的维修策略问题引入可修排队系统.在M/M/1/模型下,利用几何过程描述服务台随机退化过程,考虑了基于服务台失效次数N的策略,即当失效次数到达N次时,对服务台进行替换.根据更新报酬定理,获得了基于维修次数N的平均报酬率的表达式.     

Optimal reinsurance under VaR and TVaR risk measures in the presence of reinsurer’s risk limit

In most studies on optimal reinsurance, little attention has been paid to controlling the reinsurer’s risk. However, real-world insurance markets always place a limit on coverage, otherwise the insurer will be subjected to under a heavy financial burden when the insured suffers a large unexpected covered loss. In this paper, we revisit the optimal reinsurance problem under the optimality criteria of VaR and TVaR risk measures when the constraints for the reinsurer’s risk exposure are presented. Two types of constraints are considered that have been proposed by Cummins and Mahul (2004) and Zhou et al. (2010), respectively. It is shown that two-layer reinsurance is always the optimal reinsurance policy under both VaR and TVaR risk measures and under both types of constraints. This implies that the two-layer reinsurance policy is more robust. Furthermore, the optimal quantity of ceded risk depends on the confidence level, the safety loading and the tolerance level, as well as on the relation between them.     

Tail risk measures and risk allocation for the class of multivariate normal mean–variance mixture distributions

The Conditional Tail Expectation (CTE), also known as the Expected Shortfall and Tail-VaR, has received much attention as a preferred risk measure in finance and insurance applications. A related risk management exercise is to allocate the amount of the CTE computed for the aggregate or portfolio risk into individual risk units, a procedure known as the CTE allocation. In this paper we derive analytic formulas of the CTE and its allocation for the class of multivariate normal mean–variance mixture (NMVM) distributions, which is known to be extremely flexible and contains many well-known special cases as its members. We also develop the closed-form expression of the conditional tail variance (CTV) for the NMVM class, an alternative risk measure proposed in the literature to supplement the CTE by capturing the tail variability of the underlying distribution. To illustrate our findings, we focus on the multivariate Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution (GHD) family which is a popular subclass of the NMVM in connection with Lévy processes and contains some common distributions for financial modelling. In addition, we also consider the multivariate slash distribution which is not a member of GHD family but still belongs to the NMVM class. Our result is an extension of the recent contribution of Ignatieva and Landsman (2015).     

运用Mathematica软件包模拟M/M/1队列

运用Mathematica软件包模拟一个M/M/1队列问题,显现该软件包对于数学研究与教学的重要价值.通过对问题的分析制定模拟方案,利用计算机仿真形象地展示排队过程.其方法适用于一般队列问题.     

线性规划中大M法的参数M估值问题

在线性规划的单纯形法中,为求初始的可行基有著名的大M法,即惩罚因子法.在通常的运筹学教材中,只说明当M充分大时,大M法是有效的,并没有给出参数M的确切估计值.现给出一个确定的常数M0,并证明当M>M0时,大M法收敛于原问题的最优解.     

M/M/1算子的复谱

研究偏微分方程形式的M/M/1排队模型的主算子在左半复平面中的谱,证明集合{γ∈C|R_γ≤-(λ+μ)}包含于该模型主算子的连续谱与剩余谱的并集.由此指出偏微分方程形式的M/M/1排队模型和常微分方程形式的M/M/1排队模型的本质区别.     

M/M/1算子的其它特征值

证明对一切θ∈（0,1）,θ（2（λμ）~（1/2）-λ-μ）都是偏微分方程形式的M/M/1排队模型主算子的几何重数为1的特征值.     

N策略工作休假M/M/1排队

考虑策略工作休假M/M/1排队,简记为M/M/1(N-WV)。在休假期间,服务员并未完全停止工作而是以较低的速率为顾客服务。用拟生灭过程和矩阵几何解方法,我们给出了有直观概率意义的稳态队长和稳态条件等待时间的分布。此外,我们也得到了队长和等待时间的条件随机分解结构及附加队长和附加延迟的分布。     

A Note on Queueing System M/M/1

A new formula is given for the queue length distribution functions of queueingsystem M/M/1.Based on this formula and renewal theory,a new and simple proof ofthe ergodicity of queueing system M/M/1 is given.     

M/M/∞ Queues in series with non-homogeneous inputs

This paper studies the transient behaviour of tandem queueing system consisting of an arbitrary number r of queues in series with infinite server service facility at each queue. Poisson arrivals with time dependent parameter and exponential service times have been assumed. Infinite server queues realistically describe those queues in which sufficient service capacity exist to prevent virtually any waiting by the customer present. The model is suitable for both phase type service as well services in series. Very elegant solutions have been obtained and it has been shown that if the queue sizes are initially independent and Poisson then they remain independent and Poisson for all t.     

M/M/C休假排队系统-综述

本文介绍了带有各种休假策略的Ｍ／Ｍ／Ｃ休假排队的研究方法及结果,在所有服务台全的条件下,我们证明了系统的稳态队长和稳态等待时间可分解成两个独立随机变量和和,其中一个随机变量愉是相应的经典Ｍ／Ｍ／Ｃ排队的稳态队长与稳态等待时间。     

Robust portfolio asset allocation and risk measures

Many financial optimization problems involve future values of security prices, interest rates and exchange rates which are not known in advance, but can only be forecast or estimated. Several methodologies have therefore, been proposed to handle the uncertainty in financial optimization problems. One such methodology is Robust Statistics, which addresses the problem of making estimates of the uncertain parameters that are insensitive to small variations. A different way to achieve robustness is provided by Robust Optimization which, given optimization problems with uncertain parameters, looks for solutions that will achieve good objective function values for the realization of these parameters in given uncertainty sets. Robust Optimization thus offers a vehicle to incorporate an estimation of uncertain parameters into the decision making process. This is true, for example, in portfolio asset allocation. Starting with the robust counterparts of the classical mean-variance and minimum-variance portfolio optimization problems, in this paper we review several mathematical models, and related algorithmic approaches, that have recently been proposed to address uncertainty in portfolio asset allocation, focusing on Robust Optimization methodology. We also give an overview of some of the computational results that have been obtained with the described approaches. In addition we analyse the relationship between the concepts of robustness and convex risk measures.     

M／M／1算子的另一个特征值

证明2√λμ-λ-μ是偏微分方程形式的M／M／1排队模型主算子的几何重数为1的特征值．     

On Möbius form and Möbius isoparametric hypersurfaces

An umbilic-free hypersurface in the unit sphere is called MSbius isoparametric if it satisfies two conditions, namely, it has vanishing MSbius form and has constant MSbius principal curvatures. In this paper, under the condition of having constant MSbius principal curvatures, we show that the hypersurface is of vanishing MSbius form if and only if its MSbius form is parallel with respect to the Levi-Civita connection of its MSbius metric. Moreover, typical examples are constructed to show that the condition of having constant MSbius principal curvatures and that of having vanishing MSbius form are independent of each other.