基于改进支持向量机的高端装备制造业供应商分类研究

针对现有供应商分类方法应用于高端装备制造业供应商所存在的局限性,从相互依赖视角构建了高端装备制造业供应商分类指标体系,提出了基于改进支持向量机的高端装备制造业供应商分类模型。该模型根据供应商误分代价不同,设计代价敏感支持向量机分类器,利用粒子群算法优化分类器的参数,并采用概率输出方法对多个优化的二类分类器的结果进行组合以实现多类分类。实验结果表明,该模型提高了现有方法的分类效果,可以降低总体误分代价,有效识别出对高端装备制造企业具有重大影响的供应商,为高端装备制造企业实施供应商分类管理提供了依据。     

基于BalanceCascade-GBDT算法的类别不平衡虚假评论识别方法

虚假评论是电商发展过程中一个无法避免的难题. 针对在线评论数据中样本类别不平衡情况,提出基于BalanceCascade-GBDT算法的虚假评论识别方法. BalanceCascade算法通过设置分类器的误报率逐步缩小大类样本空间,然后集成所有基分类器构建最终分类器. GBDT以其高准确性和可解释性被广泛应用于分类问题中,并且作为样本扰动不稳定算法,是十分合适的基分类模型. 模型基于Yelp评论数据集,采用AUC值作为评价指标,并与逻辑回归、随机森林以及神经网络算法进行对比,实验证明了该方法的有效性.     

基于最小二乘加权支持向量机的个人信用预测模型研究

针对不同类别样本数差异和不同误分代价的分类问题，提出了一种基于最小二乘加权支持向量机的分类预测方法。在最小二乘加权支持向量机的基础上，考虑不同类别样本数差异和不同误分代价，提出了新的最小二乘加权支持向量机分类模型，构造了新的最优分类函数。将该模型应用于个人信用预测实验，与已有方法的对比实验结果表明，提出的模型在解决不同类别样本数差异和不同误分代价的个人信用预测问题时，有效地降低了总误分代价，提高了个人信用预测精确度。     

基于BP算法的信用风险评价模型研究

本文利用神经网络技术建立基于 BP算法的信用风险评价模型 ,为我国某商业银行 12 0家贷款企业进行信用风险评价 ,按照企业的信用等级分为“信用好”、“信用中等”和“信用差”三个小组 .仿真结果表明 ,本文所建立的神经网络信用风险评价模型的分类准确率高于传统的参数统计分类方法——线性判别分析法的分类准确率 .文中还详细给出神经网络信用风险评价模型的网络构建方法及基于 BP网络的学习算法和步骤 .     

基于投影寻踪和最优分割的企业信用评级模型

提出一种基于投影寻踪和最优分割的企业信用评级模型。该模型运用投影寻踪对样本企业进行信用综合评分,将信用综合得分由大到小排序,生成有序样品序列;利用最优分割法对有序样品进行聚类,得出明确的聚类结果;将最优分割点对应的信用综合得分作为划分信用等级的阈值,从而实现对样本企业的信用评级。应用实例证明了该模型的可行性和有效性。     

多标准等级判别模型在信用评级中的应用研究

在对目前我国信用评级方法应用现状分析的基础上,提出改进的多标准等级判别模型.并将该模型应用于商业银行信用风险评估中.通过对银行五级分类贷款样本的实证研究,证实了该判别模型的有效性和先进性.     

网络借贷平台双边用户交叉网络外部性研究:来自中国P2P网络借贷行业的经验证据

本文基于双边市场理论对网络借贷平台进行模型研究和实证检验,采用格兰杰因果检验方法对典型网络借贷平台样本进行了实证分析,研究结果表明借款人和出借人之间存在交叉网络外部性;且相比出借人而言,借款人是"鸡与蛋"问题的关键点。进而,本文构建了关于网络借贷行业的竞争性双边市场模型。我们发现的证据表明,出借人会寻求高利率的投资标的,借款人会寻求低利率的资金。同时,网络借贷平台上双边用户的数量与用户规模、撮合利率、交易量、借款期限等有关。本文的研究结果意味着,网络借贷平台发展的关键在于拓展借款人市场和平台交易规模,从而提升双边用户的外部性。     

基于SOM&SVM组合分类器的客户细分方法实证研究

为解决传统的RFM客户细分方法还不能很好地刻画客户行为,同时也没有就RFM指标权重进行分析这一问题,在RFM指标的基础上扩充了客户细分的指标体系,并提出了基于AHP的RFM指标权重确定策略.鉴于传统的单一分类器存在的很多缺陷,提出基于SOM&SVM的组合分类器模型,充分利用SOM和SVM单一分类器各自的优点,综合两种分类器的分类信息,避免单一分类器可能存在的片面性,从而提高分类的准确性.最后通过实例对上述模型的有效性进行验证.     

基于萤火虫群优化算法的烟草香级集成分类方法

针对烟草化学成分与卷烟制品香级之间确定的数学模型难以建立的问题.提出了一种基于萤火虫群优化算法的烟草香级集成分类方法.方法首先使用混合核SVM独立训练多个个体支持向量机,然后利用改进的离散型萤火虫群优化算法选择部分精度较高、差异度较大的个体分类器参与集成,最后通过多数投票法得到最终的分类预测结果.对比实验结果表明,算法在分类准确度上具有较大的优势,证明了算法的有效性·从而为烟草的香级分类提供了可靠依据.     

基于变权聚类法的路面使用性能综合评价

根据沥青混凝土路面使用性能评价状况,提出基于靶心贴近度的路面使用性能变权聚类方法.构造一种新的区间关联函数,提出"分类特征体现度越大,权重越大"的权重计算原理,将单指标关联函数的最大值作为其评价类的靶心坐标,依据样本与靶心的贴近度,对样本进行分类.该方法的有效性和合理性通过实例得到了验证.     

Subagging for credit scoring models

The logistic regression framework has been for long time the most used statistical method when assessing customer credit risk. Recently, a more pragmatic approach has been adopted, where the first issue is credit risk prediction, instead of explanation. In this context, several classification techniques have been shown to perform well on credit scoring, such as support vector machines among others. While the investigation of better classifiers is an important research topic, the specific methodology chosen in real world applications has to deal with the challenges arising from the real world data collected in the industry. Such data are often highly unbalanced, part of the information can be missing and some common hypotheses, such as the i.i.d. one, can be violated. In this paper we present a case study based on a sample of IBM Italian customers, which presents all the challenges mentioned above. The main objective is to build and validate robust models, able to handle missing information, class unbalancedness and non-iid data points. We define a missing data imputation method and propose the use of an ensemble classification technique, subagging, particularly suitable for highly unbalanced data, such as credit scoring data. Both the imputation and subagging steps are embedded in a customized cross-validation loop, which handles dependencies between different credit requests. The methodology has been applied using several classifiers (kernel support vector machines, nearest neighbors, decision trees, Adaboost) and their subagged versions. The use of subagging improves the performance of the base classifier and we will show that subagging decision trees achieve better performance, still keeping the model simple and reasonably interpretable.     

基于BP神经网络的P2P网贷借款人信用评估

评估借款人信用是P2P网贷公司控制风险的重要步骤,对于网贷公司的正常运行有着极其重要的意义。论文参考商业银行信用指标体系并根据P2P网贷自身特点,建立了P2P网贷借款人的信用评估指标体系。根据建立的指标体系构建相应的BP神经网络模型,并利用一步正切法进行优化。然后选取具有代表性的P2P网贷平台的相关数据,对该模型进行训练和仿真,证明了该模型对P2P网贷平台的风险控制起到一定的作用。     

农村信用社信贷违约识别模型及其应用

构建农村信用社信用风险模型对完善农村金融风险管理体系、提高农村信用社经营管理意义重大.基于还款意愿和还款能力两方面,系统分析了影响农信社贷款债务人违约率的主要因素,在此基础上应用logistic方法建立农信社债务人违约率预测模型,并通过Gini系数对模型区分能力和识别能力进行验证评估.实证结果表明,模型中债务人年龄、所在地区、贷款额所占家庭收入比例、与信用社信贷关系密切程度以及户口状况等因素都表现显著;违约率预测模型在样本内和样本外均有较好的违约识别能力,从而可为农信社放贷前的债务人信用评估、贷款发放和风险管理提供有力参考.     

Recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment

Consumer credit risk assessment involves the use of risk assessment tools to manage a borrower’s account from the time of pre-screening a potential application through to the management of the account during its life and possible write-off. The riskiness of lending to a credit applicant is usually estimated using a logistic regression model though researchers have considered many other types of classifier and whilst preliminary evidence suggest support vector machines seem to be the most accurate, data quality issues may prevent these laboratory based results from being achieved in practice. The training of a classifier on a sample of accepted applicants rather than on a sample representative of the applicant population seems not to result in bias though it does result in difficulties in setting the cut off. Profit scoring is a promising line of research and the Basel 2 accord has had profound implications for the way in which credit applicants are assessed and bank policies adopted.     

P2P网络借贷市场利率主导权偏离程度的研究——基于双边随机前沿模型

近年来P2P网络借贷作为一种典型的互联网金融模式获得了跳跃式的发展,由于借贷双方信息不对称,导致我国P2P网贷市场利率普遍偏高。本文利用双边随机前沿分析(SFA)方法对我国P2P网贷市场借贷双方利率主导权力进行测算,并对借贷双方的主导权力对贷款利率的影响效应进行定量分析,同时对借款者个体特征对借贷双方利率主导权力的影响进行比较分析。实证结果表明,出借方拥有明显的主导权力,随着学历、年龄、收入、信用等级的增高,借款人地位将有所改善。     

Applications and extensions of cost curves to marine container inspection

Drummond and Holte introduced the theory of cost curves, a graphical technique for visualizing the performance of binary classifiers over the full range of possible class distributions and misclassification costs. In this paper, we use this concept to develop the Improvement Curve, a new performance metric for predictive models. Improvement curves are more user-friendly than cost curves and enable direct inter-classifier comparisons. We apply improvement curves to measure risk-assessment processes at Canada’s marine ports. We illustrate how implementing even a basic predictive model would lead to improved efficiency for the Canada Border Services Agency, regardless of class distributions or misclassification costs.     

A correlative classifiers approach based on particle filter and sample set for tracking occluded target

Target tracking is one of the most important issues in computer vision and has been applied in many fields of science, engineering and industry. Because of the occlusion during tracking, typical approaches with single classifier learn much of occluding background information which results in the decrease of tracking performance, and eventually lead to the failure of the tracking algorithm. This paper presents a new correlative classifiers approach to address the above problem. Our idea is to derive a group of correlative classifiers based on sample set method. Then we propose strategy to establish the classifiers and to query the suitable classifiers for the next frame tracking. In order to deal with nonlinear problem, particle filter is adopted and integrated with sample set method. For choosing the target from candidate particles, we define a similarity measurement between particles and sample set. The proposed sample set method includes the following steps. First, we cropped positive samples set around the target and negative samples set far away from the target. Second, we extracted average Haar-like feature from these samples and calculate their statistical characteristic which represents the target model. Third, we define the similarity measurement based on the statistical characteristic of these two sets to judge the similarity between candidate particles and target model. Finally, we choose the largest similarity score particle as the target in the new frame. A number of experiments show the robustness and efficiency of the proposed approach when compared with other state-of-the-art trackers.     

Neighborhood based decision-theoretic rough set models

As an extension of Pawlak rough set model, decision-theoretic rough set model (DTRS) adopts the Bayesian decision theory to compute the required thresholds in probabilistic rough set models. It gives a new semantic interpretation of the positive, boundary and negative regions by using three-way decisions. DTRS has been widely discussed and applied in data mining and decision making. However, one limitation of DTRS is its lack of ability to deal with numerical data directly. In order to overcome this disadvantage and extend the theory of DTRS, this paper proposes a neighborhood based decision-theoretic rough set model (NDTRS) under the framework of DTRS. Basic concepts of NDTRS are introduced. A positive region related attribute reduct and a minimum cost attribute reduct in the proposed model are defined and analyzed. Experimental results show that our methods can get a short reduct. Furthermore, a new neighborhood classifier based on three-way decisions is constructed and compared with other classifiers. Comparison experiments show that the proposed classifier can get a high accuracy and a low misclassification cost.     

Misclassification cost minimizing fitness functions for genetic algorithm-based artificial neural network classifiers

We study three different approaches to formulate a misclassification cost minimizing genetic algorithm (GA) fitness function for a GA-neural network classifier. These three different approaches include a fitness function that directly minimizes total misclassification cost, a fitness function that uses posterior probability for minimizing total misclassification cost and a hybrid fitness function that uses an average value of the first two fitness functions to minimize total misclassification cost. Using simulated data sets representing three different distributions and four different misclassification cost matrices, we test the performance of the three fitness functions on a two-group classification problem. Our results indicate that the posterior probability-based misclassification cost minimizing function and the hybrid fitness function are less prone to training data over fitting, but direct misclassification cost minimizing fitness function provides the lowest overall misclassification cost in training tests. For holdout sample tests, when cost asymmetries are low (less than or equal to a ratio of 1:2), the hybrid misclassification cost minimizing fitness function yields the best results; however, when cost asymmetries are high (equal or greater than a ratio of 1:4), the total misclassification cost minimizing function provides the best results. We validate our findings using a real-world data on a bankruptcy prediction problem.     

Structural models in consumer credit

We propose a structural credit risk model for consumer lending using option theory and the concept of the value of the consumer’s reputation. Using Brazilian empirical data and a credit bureau score as proxy for creditworthiness we compare a number of alternative models before suggesting one that leads to a simple analytical solution for the probability of default. We apply the proposed model to portfolios of consumer loans introducing a factor to account for the mean influence of systemic economic factors on individuals. This results in a hybrid structural-reduced-form model. And comparisons are made with the Basel II approach. Our conclusions partially support that approach for modelling the credit risk of portfolios of retail credit.