证券分析师对会计盈余价值相关性的影响研究

自媒体时代证券分析师是否通过挖掘会计信息进而改变会计盈余价值相关性?文章以2007-2017年沪深A股上市公司为样本,使用传统收益模型和考虑成长期权后的收益模型,采用OLS回归研究分析师覆盖和预测偏差对会计盈余价值相关性的影响。实证结果发现:(1)分析师覆盖有利于将更多会计盈余信息并入股票价值,从而提高会计盈余价值相关性;(2)预测准确的分析师团队有利于将更多会计盈余(包括未预期盈余)信息并入股票价值。进一步考虑产权性质的异质性区分国有和民营企业研究上述结论不变,但发现证券分析师在挖掘国有和民营企业未预期盈余信息方面存在差异,分析师覆盖能够提高国有企业非预期盈余的价值相关性,但民营企业非预期盈余反而会削弱分析师覆盖发挥的作用。研究表明会计信息仍然是分析师预测的重要依据,高质量的分析师队伍有利于提升资本市场效率,但证券分析师在揭示民营企业非预期盈余所包含的信息方面还需要改善。     

一种机器人的反馈跟踪控制系统

本文对包括机器人在内的一类系统,指明了于跟踪控制所必需的反馈信息;结合速度控制和加速度控制,提出了使机器人跟踪并抓住空间做任意运动的物体的反馈控制方法,其与别种方法的不同之处在于:该方法能用于机器人手爪的方位不能事先确定的场合;数值模拟结果表明:所提出方法行之有效。     

上市公司盈余管理系列报道之六：弹性的边界

正能量盈余管理是CFO参与企业价值创造的阳光地带。根据管理层操控应计额进行盈余管理是出于机会主义动机,还是传递公司未来经营业绩的价值相关性信息,盈余管理属性可以划分两类：机会主义盈余管理和决策有用性盘余管理。其中,机会主义盈余管理的类型包括基于管理层收购、股票发行、股权激励、内部人交易及基于满足薪酬契约和债务契约的契约动机、规避政府行业监管和反托拉斯监管的监管动机盈余管理等;     

供应链金融、盈余管理与企业融资效率

本文以我国2014—2019年间沪深A股主板非金融类上市公司为研究样本，采用真实盈余管理模型和修正-Jones模型分别度量企业的真实和应计盈余管理，并通过主成分分析提取综合指标衡量融资效率，实证检验了供应链金融、盈余管理对企业融资效率的影响，以及供应链金融与盈余管理对融资效率的交互影响，并按企业规模、企业所有制属性对上述影响进行深入考察。研究发现，高质量的供应链金融有利于改善企业融资效率；企业内部盈余管理会抑制融资效率的提高；上述两种影响在大规模、国有企业中表现更突出。进一步的研究发现，供应链金融与真实盈余管理对融资效率的影响存在显著的替代效应，这种替代效应在小规模、国有企业中更显著。     

水利建设项目跟踪审计风险多级可拓评价

为准确评价水利建设项目跟踪审计风险、提高风险应对效果,提出跟踪审计风险的多级可拓评价方法.首先,分析水利建设项目跟踪审计现状,构建包括环境风险、主体风险、客体风险及其他风险等4个一级指标及19个二级指标的风险评价指标体系;其次,运用层次分析法确定评价指标权重,建立水利建设项目跟踪审计风险的多级可拓评价模型;最后,应用该模型对某水利建设项目跟踪审计风险进行评价,确定其风险等级.研究结果表明:多级可拓评价模型充分考虑了水利建设项目跟踪审计风险因素的复杂性、模糊性与不确定性,最终的评价结果准确客观,为今后水利建设项目跟踪审计风险评价提供了新的思路.     

机动目标的跟踪与反跟踪综述

结合竞赛中存在的问题,得出以下结论:机动量估计关键在于通过被污染的雷达测量信息估计出目标的加速度随时间的变化,其难点是如何准确描述目标的运动模型;跟踪模型选择合适程度直接影响了数据关联和航迹预测的准确程度,这两者决定了了雷达系统的性能;机动目标的跟踪与反跟踪是一种博弈的关系,既相互对立又相互促进,不断推进和提出雷达新的作战需求.     

公司盈余预测与资本成本估算——截面回归模型预测VS.分析师预测

盈余预测数据的合理利用有助于提高资本成本估算的准确度,截面回归预测模型是近几年来盈余预测研究的热点问题。本文基于中国上市公司的数据以及分析师的盈余预测数据,对公司盈余预测质量以及与资本成本估算质量之间的关系进行了检验。结果显示,中国分析师的盈余预测质量较高,但是根据预测盈余估算的资本成本与可实现报酬率、与风险因素的关系,截面回归预测模型尤其是基于HVZ模型的盈余预测可以取得更好的资本成本估算结果。     

国家治理体系完善能抑制企业盈余管理吗？——基于准自然实验的经验证据

本文以沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,从巡视监督的视角考察了国家治理体系完善的公司治理效应。研究结论表明:巡视监督能够有效的抑制企业盈余管理,降低24%的应计盈余管理和22%的真实盈余管理。采用平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验和倾向得分法之后的结论依然稳健;相对于地方巡视监督而言,中央巡视监督对企业盈余管理治理的效果更为显著;巡视监督对于腐败地区企业盈余管理治理效应更强。本文丰富了国家治理体系发挥公司治理效应的文献体系,揭示了制度建设在实体经济发展中的重要作用。     

机械臂系统的自适应跟踪控制

考虑一类非线性机械臂系统的跟踪控制.该系统包含未知的定常参数和多个未知的周期时变参数.提出了一种新的自适应跟踪控制方法,该方法能保证闭环系统的所有信号有界,且跟踪误差趋于零.     

一类广义迭代学习控制系统的状态跟踪算法

利用迭代学习控制方法,研究了一类广义系统的状态跟踪问题.针对广义系统的分解形式,提出了一种新的迭代学习控制算法,该算法由部分D型算法和部分P型算法混合而成.给出了新算法的收敛条件,并从理论上对新算法进行了完整的收敛性分析.数值仿真结果说明了所提出的广义系统状态跟踪的迭代学习控制算法的有效性.     

Szemerédi’s Lemma for the Analyst

Szemerédi’s regularity lemma is a fundamental tool in graph theory: it has many applications to extremal graph theory, graph property testing, combinatorial number theory, etc. The goal of this paper is to point out that Szemerédi’s lemma can be thought of as a result in analysis. We show three different analytic interpretations. Received: February 2006 Revision: April 2006 Accepted: April 2006     

A Valley Following Method

We present a procedure to follow the "path along the valley floor" of a hypersurface. The aim is either to find minima, or to go from a minimum to a saddle point of index one, if the saddle is at the top of the valley floor. The motivation is that of taking into account local nonconvexity of the hypersurface and possibly to determine valleys. The method uses a projector technique where the projector is built by the tangent of the valley floor line. The projector is applied to the gradient and Hessian matrix of a given function, and it is used for predictor and corrector steps in path following. The resulting path is the "valley floor gradient extremal" which corresponds to the smallest (absolute) eigenvalue of the Hessian. Convergence properties are analysed.     

Following paths through turning points

The use of the continuation principle in the solution of systems of nonlinear equations frequently leads to the need to follow trajectories through turning points. This can be done by using a different parametrization at every step along the trajectory. We show how to construct accurate predictors and adaptive steplength estimators for use in predictor-corrector algorithms which follow trajectories in this way.     

Trajectory Following Methods in Control System Design

A trajectory following method for solving optimization problems is based on the idea of solving ordinary differential equations whose equilibrium solutions satisfy the necessary conditions for a minimum. The method is `trajectory following' in the sense that an initial guess for the solution is moved along a trajectory generated by the differential equations to a solution point. With the advent of fast computers and efficient integration solvers, this relatively old idea is now an attractive alternative to traditional optimization methods. One area in control theory that the trajectory following method is particularly useful is in the design of Lyapunov optimizing feedback controls. Such a controller is one in which the control at each instant in time either minimizes the `steepest decent' or `quickest decent' as determined from the system dynamics and an appropriate (Lyapunov- like) decent function. The method is particularly appealing in that it allows the Lyapunov control system design method to be used `on-line'. That is, the controller is part of a normal feedback loop with no off-line calculations required. This approach eliminates the need to solve two-point boundary value problems associated with classical optimal control approaches. We demonstrate the method with two examples. The first example is a nonlinear system with no constraints on the control and the second example is a linear system subject to bounded control.     

On the Numerical Method of Following Homotopy Paths

In this paper, we develop one kind of method, called self-adaptive method (SAM), to trace a continuous curve of a homotopy system for the solution of a nonlinear system of equations in finite steps. The existence of the continuous solution, the determination of safe initial points, and the test of regularity and stop criterion corresponding to this method are discussed. As a result, the method can follow the curve efficiently. The numerical results show that our method is satisfactory.     

主从竞争供应链博弈分析

考虑两条均由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的竞争供应链模型,链间采用Stackelberg博弈,而链内分别考虑制造商主导和零售商主导两种情况.考察了在链内企业实力不同时对供应链之间的竞争有何影响.分析了当企业实力发生改变时,对己链以及他链成员的最优决策有何影响.最后对反映供应链竞争程度的(?)_i做灵敏度分析.结果表明任何供应链内部主导权的改变对链与链之间的竞争没有影响.链内企业之间的博弈只是一种内耗.当两条链实力旗鼓相当时,后进入市场的供应链具有"后动优势"以及竞争加剧对各方都有利.     

A New Type of Reduced Dimension Path Following Methods

To solve $F(x)=0$ numerically, we first prove that there exists a tube-like neighborhood around the curve in $R^n$ defined by the Newton homotopy in which $F(x)$ possesses some good properties. Then in this neighborhood, we set up an algorithm which is numerically stable and convergent. Since we can ensure that the iterative points are not far from the homotopy curve while computing, we need not apply the predictor-corrector which is often used in path following methods.