An algorithm for computing constrained smoothing spline functions

Summary The problem of computing constrained spline functions, both for ideal data and noisy data, is considered. Two types of constriints are treated, namely convexity and convexity together with monotonity. A characterization result for constrained smoothing splines is derived. Based on this result a Newton-type algorithm is defined for computing the constrained spline function. Thereby it is possible to apply the constraints over a whole interval rather than at a discrete set of points. Results from numerical experiments are included.     

On the problems of smoothing and near-interpolation

In the first part of this paper we apply a saddle point theorem from convex analysis to show that various constrained minimization problems are equivalent to the problem of smoothing by spline functions. In particular, we show that near-interpolants are smoothing splines with weights that arise as Lagrange multipliers corresponding to the constraints in the problem of near-interpolation. In the second part of this paper we apply certain fixed point iterations to compute these weights. A similar iteration is applied to the computation of the smoothing parameter in the problem of smoothing.

     

Statistical application of barycentric rational interpolants: an alternative to splines

Spline curves, originally developed by numerical analysts for interpolation, are widely used in statistical work, mainly as regression splines and smoothing splines. Barycentric rational interpolants have recently been developed by numerical analysts, but have yet seen very few statistical applications. We give the necesssary information to enable the reader to use barycentric rational interpolants, including a suggestion for a Bayesian prior distribution, and explore the possible statistical use of barycentric interpolants as an alternative to splines. We give the all the necessary formulae, compare the numerical accuracy to splines for some Monte-Carlo datasets, and apply both regression splines and barycentric interpolants to two real datasets. We also discuss the application of these interpolants to data smoothing, where smoothing splines would normally be used, and exemplify the use of smoothing interpolants with another real dataset. Our conclusion is that barycentric interpolants are as accurate as splines, and no more difficult to understand and program. They offer a viable alternative methodology.     

Vector-valued Lg-splines II. Smoothing splines

In the first paper of this series, Lg-spline theory was extended to the vector-valued interpolating case. Here this work is complemented by giving the extension for smoothing splines. The problem is formulated as a constrained minimum norm problem in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and solved recursively using a congruent stochastic estimation model.     

Implied volatility and state price density estimation: arbitrage analysis

This paper deals with implied volatility (IV) estimation using no-arbitrage techniques. The current market practice is to obtain IV of liquid options as based on Black–Scholes (BS type hereafter) models. Such volatility is subsequently used to price illiquid or even exotic options. Therefore, it follows that the BS model can be related simultaneously to the whole set of IVs as given by maturity/moneyness relation of tradable options. Then, it is possible to get IV curve or surface (a so called smile or smirk). Since the moneyness and maturity of IV often do not match the data of valuated options, some sort of estimating and local smoothing is necessary. However, it can lead to arbitrage opportunity if no-arbitrage conditions on state price density (SPD) are ignored. In this paper, using option data on DAX index, we aim to analyse the behavior of IV and SPD with respect to different choices of bandwidth parameter h, time to maturity and kernel function. A set of bandwidths which violates no-arbitrage conditions is identified. We document that the change of h implies interesting changes in the violation interval of moneyness. We also perform the analysis after removing outliers, in order to show that not only outliers cause the violation of no-arbitrage conditions. Moreover, we propose a new measure of arbitrage which can be considered either for the SPD curve (arbitrage area measure) or for the SPD surface (arbitrage volume measure). We highlight the impact of h on the proposed measures considering the options on a German stock index. Finally, we propose an extension of the IV and SPD estimation for the case of options on a dividend-paying stock.     

The hat matrix for smoothing splines

The matrix which transforms the data vector to the vector of fitted values for smoothing splines is termed the hat matrix. This matrix is shown to have many of the same properties, and is seen to play the same role in the variances and covariances of the residuals, as its regression analysis counterpart. This fact is utilized to propose several possible diagnostic measures for use with smoothing splines. The extension of these results to include multivariate Laplacian smoothing spline is also indicated.     

用广义交互确认方法选择良好参数进行多元多项式散乱数据自然样条光顺

1．简介多元样条函数在多元逼近中发挥很大作用，已有数量相当多的综合报告和研究论文正式发表，就在1996年6月在法国召开的第三届国际曲线与曲面会议上便有不少多元样条方面的报告，不过总的感觉是仍然缺乏对噪声数据特别是散乱数据的有效光顺方法．李岳生、崔锦泰、关履泰、胡日章等讨论广义调配样条与张量积函数，并用希氏空间样条方法处理多元散乱数据样条插值与光顺，提出多元多项式自然样条，推广了相应一元的结果．我们知道，在样条光顺中有一个如何选择参数的问题，用广义交互确认方法（generalizedcross－validation，以下简称GC…     

Implied Volatility of Leveraged ETF Options

Abstract

This paper studies the problem of understanding implied volatilities from options written on leveraged exchanged-traded funds (LETFs), with an emphasis on the relations between LETF options with different leverage ratios. We first examine from empirical data the implied volatility skews for LETF options based on the S&P 500. In order to enhance their comparison with non-leveraged ETFs, we introduce the concept of moneyness scaling and provide a new formula that links option implied volatilities between leveraged and unleveraged ETFs. Under a multiscale stochastic volatility framework, we apply asymptotic techniques to derive an approximation for both the LETF option price and implied volatility. The approximation formula reflects the role of the leverage ratio, and thus allows us to link implied volatilities of options on an ETF and its leveraged counterparts. We apply our result to quantify matches and mismatches in the level and slope of the implied volatility skews for various LETF options using data from the underlying ETF option prices. This reveals some apparent biases in the leverage implied by the market prices of different products, long and short with leverage ratios two times and three times.     

Priors for Bayesian adaptive spline smoothing

Adaptive smoothing has been proposed for curve-fitting problems where the underlying function is spatially inhomogeneous. Two Bayesian adaptive smoothing models, Bayesian adaptive smoothing splines on a lattice and Bayesian adaptive P-splines, are studied in this paper. Estimation is fully Bayesian and carried out by efficient Gibbs sampling. Choice of prior is critical in any Bayesian non-parametric regression method. We use objective priors on the first level parameters where feasible, specifically independent Jeffreys priors (right Haar priors) on the implied base linear model and error variance, and we derive sufficient conditions on higher level components to ensure that the posterior is proper. Through simulation, we demonstrate that the common practice of approximating improper priors by proper but diffuse priors may lead to invalid inference, and we show how appropriate choices of proper but only weakly informative priors yields satisfactory inference.     

On extracting information implied in options

Options are financial instruments with a payoff depending on future states of the underlying asset. Therefore option markets contain information about expectations of the market participants about market conditions, e.g. current uncertainty on the market and corresponding risk. A standard measure of risk calculated from plain vanilla options is the implied volatility (IV). IV can be understood as an estimate of the volatility of returns in future period. Another concept based on the option markets is the state-price density (SPD) that is a density of the future states of the underlying asset. From raw data we can recover the IV function by nonparametric smoothing methods. Smoothed IV estimated by standard techniques may lead to a non-positive SPD which violates no arbitrage criteria. In this paper, we combine the IV smoothing with SPD estimation in order to correct these problems. We propose to use the local polynomial smoothing technique. The elegance of this approach is that it yields all quantities needed to calculate the corresponding SPD. Our approach operates only on the IVs—a major improvement comparing to the earlier multi-step approaches moving through the Black–Scholes formula from the prices to IVs and vice-versa.     

Optimal design for smoothing splines

In the common nonparametric regression model we consider the problem of constructing optimal designs, if the unknown curve is estimated by a smoothing spline. A special basis for the space of natural splines is introduced and the local minimax property for these splines is used to derive two optimality criteria for the construction of optimal designs. The first criterion determines the design for a most precise estimation of the coefficients in the spline representation and corresponds to D-optimality, while the second criterion is the G-optimality criterion and corresponds to an accurate prediction of the curve. Several properties of the optimal designs are derived. In general, D- and G-optimal designs are not equivalent. Optimal designs are determined numerically and compared with the uniform design.     

多元指数磨光算子的构造和相关偏微分方程基本解与磨光核的升维解法

本文目的在于回答:δ分布的多元指数磨光函数,即磨光核函数的解析表示问题.从我们给出的多元指数磨光算子的定义出发,将磨光核函数的表示,归结为先求相应偏微分方程的基本解,再对它的广义差分.然后用我们提出的"升维方法",彻底解决了基本解的解析表达问题.从而也就回答了磨光核函数的解析表示.磨光核函数的支集既可以是高维立方体,也可以是高维单纯形.因此,多元指数箱(E-Box)和单纯形(E-Simplex)样条的表示,皆能用我们的统一方法解决.     

Bivariate Free Knot Splines

We consider the least squares approximation of gridded 2D data by tensor product splines with free knots. The smoothing functional to be minimized—a generalization of the univariate Schoenberg functional—is chosen in such a way that the solution of the bivariate problem separates into the solution of a sequence of univariate problems in case of fixed knots. The resulting optimization problem is a constrained separable least squares problem with tensor product structure. Based on some ideas developed by the authors for the univariate case, an efficient method for solving the specially structured 2D problem is proposed, analyzed and tested on hand of some examples from the literature.     

Market implied volatilities for defaultable bonds

Typically, implied volatilities for defaultable instruments are not available in the financial market since quotations related to options on defaultable bonds or on credit default swaps are usually not quoted by brokers. However, an estimate of their volatilities is needed for pricing purposes. In this paper, we provide a methodology to infer market implied volatilities for defaultable bonds using equity implied volatilities and CDS spreads quoted by the market in relation to a specific issuer. The theoretical framework we propose is based on the Merton’s model under stochastic interest rates where the short rate is assumed to follow the Hull–White model. A numerical analysis is provided to illustrate the calibration process to be performed starting from financial market data. The market implied volatility calibrated according to the proposed methodology could be used to evaluate options where the underlying is a risky bond, i.e. callable bond or other types of credit-risk sensitive financial instruments.

     

A Geometric Programming Framework for Univariate Cubic L 1 Smoothing Splines

Univariate cubic L ₁ smoothing splines are capable of providing shape-preserving C ¹-smooth approximation of multi-scale data. The minimization principle for univariate cubic L ₁ smoothing splines results in a nondifferentiable convex optimization problem that, for theoretical treatment and algorithm design, can be formulated as a generalized geometric program. In this framework, a geometric dual with a linear objective function over a convex feasible domain is derived, and a linear system for dual to primal conversion is established. Numerical examples are given to illustrate this approach. Sensitivity analysis for data with uncertainty is presented. This work is supported by research grant #DAAG55-98-D-0003 of the Army Research Office, USA.     

A stochastic framework for recursive computation of spline functions: Part II,smoothing splines

Many of the optimal curve-fitting problems arising in approximation theory have the same structure as certain estimation problems involving random processes. We develop this structural correspondence for the problem of smoothing inaccurate data with splines and show that the smoothing spline is a sample function of a certain linear least-squares estimate. Estimation techniques are then used to derive a recursive algorithm for spline smoothing.     

Sur le choix du paramètre d'ajustement dans le lissage par fonctions spline

Summary We consider the problem of approximating an unknown functionf, known with error atn equally spaced points of the real interval [a, b].To solve this problem, we use the natural polynomial smoothing splines. We show that the eigenvalues associated to these splines converge to the eigenvalues of a differential operator and we use this fact to obtain an algorithm, based on the Generalized Cross Validation method, to calculate the smoothing parameter.With this algorithm, we divide byn the time used by classical methods.

     

Identifying local smoothness for spatially inhomogeneous functions

We consider a problem of estimating local smoothness of a spatially inhomogeneous function from noisy data under the framework of smoothing splines. Most existing studies related to this problem deal with estimation induced by a single smoothing parameter or partially local smoothing parameters, which may not be efficient to characterize various degrees of smoothness of the underlying function when it is spatially varying. In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric method to estimate local smoothness of the function based on a moving local risk minimization coupled with spatially adaptive smoothing splines. The proposed method provides full information of the local smoothness at every location on the entire data domain, so that it is able to understand the degrees of spatial inhomogeneity of the function. A successful estimate of the local smoothness is useful for identifying abrupt changes of smoothness of the data, performing functional clustering and improving the uniformity of coverage of the confidence intervals of smoothing splines. We further consider a nontrivial extension of the local smoothness of inhomogeneous two-dimensional functions or spatial fields. Empirical performance of the proposed method is evaluated through numerical examples, which demonstrates promising results of the proposed method.     

Generalized Nonparametric Mixed Effects Models

Generalized linear mixed effects models (GLMM) provide useful tools for correlated and/or over-dispersed non-Gaussian data. This article considers generalized nonparametric mixed effects models (GNMM), which relax the rigid linear assumption on the conditional predictor in a GLMM. We use smoothing splines to model fixed effects. The random effects are general and may also contain stochastic processes corresponding to smoothing splines. We show how to construct smoothing spline ANOVA (SS ANOVA) decompositions for the predictor function. Components in a SS ANOVA decomposition have nice interpretations as main effects and interactions. Experimental design considerations help determine which components are fixed or random. We estimate all parameters and spline functions using stochastic approximation with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). As iteration increases we increase the MCMC sample size and decrease the step-size of the parameter update. This approach guarantees convergence of the estimates to the expected fixed points. We evaluate our methods through a simulation study.     

New solvers for higher dimensional poisson equations by reduced B‐splines

We use higher dimensional B‐splines as basis functions to find the approximations for the Dirichlet problem of the Poisson equation in dimension two and three. We utilize the boundary data to remove unnecessary bases. Our method is applicable to more general linear partial differential equations. We provide new basis functions which do not require as many B‐splines. The number of new bases coincides with that of the necessary knots. The reducing process uses the boundary conditions to redefine a basis without extra artificial assumptions on knots which are outside the domain. Therefore, more accuracy would be expected from our method. The approximation solutions satisfy the Poisson equation at each mesh point and are solved explicitly using tensor product of matrices. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 30: 393–405, 2014