Large auctions with risk-averse bidders

We study private-value auctions with n risk-averse bidders, where n is large. We first use asymptotic analysis techniques to calculate explicit approximations of the equilibrium bids and of the seller’s revenue in any k-price auction (k = 1, 2, . . .). These explicit approximations show that in all large k-price auctions the effect of risk-aversion is O(1/n ²) small. Hence, all large k-price auctions with risk-averse bidders are O(1/n ²) revenue equivalent. The generalization, that all large auctions are O(1/n ²) revenue equivalent, is false. Indeed, we show that there exist auction mechanisms for which the limiting revenue as ${n\longrightarrow \infty }We study private-value auctions with n risk-averse bidders, where n is large. We first use asymptotic analysis techniques to calculate explicit approximations of the equilibrium bids and of the seller’s revenue in any k-price auction (k = 1, 2, . . .). These explicit approximations show that in all large k-price auctions the effect of risk-aversion is O(1/n ²) small. Hence, all large k-price auctions with risk-averse bidders are O(1/n ²) revenue equivalent. The generalization, that all large auctions are O(1/n ²) revenue equivalent, is false. Indeed, we show that there exist auction mechanisms for which the limiting revenue as n? ￥{n\longrightarrow \infty } with risk-averse bidders is strictly below the risk-neutral limit. Therefore, these auction mechanisms are not revenue equivalent to large k-price auctions even to leading-order as n? ￥{n\longrightarrow \infty }.     

The buy price in auctions with discrete type distributions

This paper considers second-price, sealed-bid auctions with a buy price where bidders’ types are discretely distributed. We characterize all equilibria in which bidders whose types are less than the buy price bid their own valuations. Budish and Takeyama (2001) analyze the two-bidder, two-type framework. They show that if bidders are risk-averse, then the seller can obtain a higher expected revenue from the auction with a certain buy price than from the auction without a buy price. We extend their revenue improvement result to the n-bidder, two-type framework. In case of three or more types, however, bidders’ risk aversion is not a sufficient condition for a revenue improvement. We point out that even if bidders are risk-averse, the seller cannot always obtain a higher expected revenue from the auctions with a buy price.     

A note on sequential auctions with multi-unit demand

Within the independent private value paradigm, this note first analyzes two-round sequential first-price auctions with multi-unit demand. We show that the expected price in the first round is strictly lower than that in the second round due to the “extraction effect”. We then compare the revenues for the sequential auctions and the simultaneous auctions. We show that the discriminatory auction, the Vickrey auction, and the sequential second-price auctions generate the same revenue for the seller, followed in order by the sequential first-price auctions, and by the uniform-price auction.     

Selecting optimal selling format of a product in B2C online auctions with boundedly rational customers

The advancement of Internet technology has enabled new formats for selling products in the B2C online auctions. At present, on the major online auction sites, there exist three popular selling formats, namely, the posted price, pure auction and buy-price auction formats. It is an important decision problem for a firm to select the most profitable format to sell its products through the Internet. The customer behavior is of course a crucial element of the decision process. To the best of our knowledge, most models available today assume that customers are perfectly rational. To better understand the decision process, in this paper, we incorporate the concept of bounded rationality into consideration. We first present a “behavior choice function” to characterize the behavior of the customers with bounded rationality. Then corresponding to each selling format, we construct a revenue model based on the bounded rationality for analysis. Finally, we conduct some elaborate computational experiments to investigate the performance of each revenue model for developing new managerial insights. Our computational results clearly demonstrate how the bounded rationality of customer behavior affects the choice of a preferable selling format for a B2C firm in an online auction.     

Hats,auctions and derandomization

We investigate derandomizations of digital good randomized auctions. We propose a general derandomization method which can be used to show that for every random auction there exists a deterministic auction having asymptotically the same revenue. In addition, we construct an explicit optimal deterministic auction for bi‐valued auctions. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 46, 478–493, 2015     

Combining guaranteed and spot markets in display advertising: Selling guaranteed page views with stochastic demand

While page views are often sold instantly through real-time auctions when users visit websites, they can also be sold in advance via guaranteed contracts. In this paper, we present a dynamic programming model to study how an online publisher should optimally allocate and price page views between guaranteed and spot markets. The problem is challenging because the allocation and pricing of guaranteed contracts affect how advertisers split their purchases between the two markets, and the terminal value of the model is endogenously determined by the updated dual force of supply and demand in auctions. We take the advertisers’ purchasing behaviour into consideration, i.e., risk aversion and stochastic demand arrivals, and present a scalable and efficient algorithm for the optimal solution. The model is also empirically validated with a commercial dataset. The experimental results show that selling page views via both channels can increase the publisher’s expected total revenue, and the optimal pricing and allocation strategies are robust to different market and advertiser types.     

Fraction auctions: The tradeoff between efficiency and running time

This paper studies the sales of a single indivisible object where bidders have continuous valuations. In Grigorieva et al. [14] it was shown that, in this setting, query auctions necessarily allocate inefficiently in equilibrium. In this paper we propose a new sequential auction, called the c-fraction auction. We show the existence of an ex-post equilibrium, called bluff equilibrium, in which bidders behave truthfully except for particular constellations of observed bids at which it is optimal to pretend a slightly higher valuation. We show c-fraction auctions guarantee approximate efficiency at any desired level of accuracy, independent of the number of bidders, when bidders choose to play the bluff equilibrium. We discuss the running time and the efficiency in the bluff equilibrium. We show that by changing the parameter c of the auction we can trade off efficiency against running time.     

All-pay auctions with pre- and post-bidding options

Motivated by the emergence of online penny or pay-to-bid auctions, in this study, we analyze the operational consequences of all-pay auctions competing with fixed list price stores. In all-pay auctions, bidders place bids, and highest bidder wins. Depending on the auction format, the winner pays either the amount of their bid or that of the second-highest bid. All losing bidders forfeit their bids, regardless of the auction format. Bidders may visit the store, both before and after bidding, and buy the item at the fixed list price. In a modified version, we consider a setting where bidders can use their sunk bid as a credit towards buying the item from the auctioneer at a fixed price (different from the list price). We characterize a symmetric equilibrium in the bidding/buying strategy and derive optimal list prices for both the seller and auctioneer to maximize expected revenue. We consider two situations: (1) one firm operating both channels (i.e. fixed list price store and all-pay auction), and (2) two competing firms, each operating one of the two channels.     

Convergence rate of numerical solutions to SFDEs with jumps

In this paper, we are interested in numerical solutions of stochastic functional differential equations with jumps. Under a global Lipschitz condition, we show that the pth-moment convergence of Euler-Maruyama numerical solutions to stochastic functional differential equations with jumps has order 1/p for any p≥2. This is significantly different from the case of stochastic functional differential equations without jumps, where the order is 1/2 for any p≥2. It is therefore best to use the mean-square convergence for stochastic functional differential equations with jumps. Moreover, under a local Lipschitz condition, we reveal that the order of mean-square convergence is close to 1/2, provided that local Lipschitz constants, valid on balls of radius j, do not grow faster than logj.     

车辆牌照拍卖模型

提出多个相同物品(如车辆牌照)同时密封拍卖的模型，给出对称均衡竞标策略；证明了该拍卖方式与第一价格密封连续拍卖产生相同的预期收益；对估价为均匀分布的拍卖预期收益进行了研究。     

Estimating intermediate price transitions in online auctions

This paper discusses a statistical model regarding intermediate price transitions of online auctions. The objective was to characterize the stochastic process by which prices of online auctions evolve and to estimate conditional intermediate price transition probabilities given current price, elapsed auction time, number of competing auctions, and calendar time. Conditions to ensure monotone price transitions in the current price and number of competing auctions are discussed and empirically validated. In particular, we show that over discrete periods, the intermediate price transitions are increasing in the current price, decreasing in the number of ongoing auctions at a diminishing rate, and decreasing over time. These results provide managerial insight into the effect of how online auctions are released and overlap. The proposed model is based on the framework of generalized linear models using a zero‐inflated gamma distribution. Empirical analysis and parameter estimation is based on data from eBay auctions conducted by Dell. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Visualizing Online Auctions

Online auctions have been the subject of many empirical research efforts in the fields of economics and information systems. These research efforts are often based on analyzing data from Web sites such as eBay.com which provide public information about sequences of bids in closed auctions, typically in the form of tables on HTML pages. The existing literature on online auctions focuses on tools like summary statistics and more formal statistical methods such as regression models. However, there is a clear void in this growing body of literature in developing appropriate visualization tools. This is quite surprising, given that the sheer amount of data that can be found on sites such as eBay.com is overwhelming and can often not be displayed informatively using standard statistical graphics. In this article we introduce graphical methods for visualizing online auction data in ways that are informative and relevant to the types of research questions that are of interest. We start by using profile plots that reveal aspects of an auction such as bid values, bidding intensity, and bidder strategies. We then introduce the concept of statistical zooming (STAT-zoom) which can scale up to be used for visualizing large amounts of auctions. STAT-zoom adds the capability of looking at data summaries at various time scales interactively. Finally, we develop auction calendars and auction scene visualizations for viewing a set of many concurrent auctions. The different visualization methods are demonstrated using data on multiple auctions collected from eBay.com.     

Equilibrium and revenue in a family of common-value first-price auctions with differential information

We study a discrete common-value auction environment with two asymmetrically informed bidders. Equilibrium of the first-price auction is in mixed strategies, which we characterize using a doubly recursive solution method. The distribution of bids for the ex post strong player stochastically dominates that for the ex post weak player. This result complements Maskin and Riley’s (Rev Econ Stud 67:413–438, 2000) similar result for asymmetric private-value auctions. Finally, comparison with the dominance-solvable equilibrium in a second-price auction shows the Milgrom–Weber (Econometrica 50:1089–1122, 1982a) finding that the second-price auction yields at least as much revenue as the first-price auction fails with asymmetry: in some cases the first-price auction provides greater expected revenue, in some cases less.     

Using bid data for the management of sequential,multi-unit,online auctions with uniformly distributed bidder valuations

Internet auctions for consumers’ goods are an increasingly popular selling venue. We have observed that many sellers, instead of offering their entire inventory in a single auction, split it into sequential auctions of smaller lots, thereby reducing the negative market impact of larger lots. Information technology also makes it possible to collect and analyze detailed bid data from online auctions. In this paper, we develop and test a new model of sequential online auctions to explore the potential benefits of using real bid data from earlier auctions to improve the management of future auctions. Assuming a typical truth-revealing auction model, we quantify the effect of the lot size on the closing price and derive a closed-form solution for the problem of allocating inventory across multiple auctions when bidder valuation distributions are known. We also develop a decision methodology for allocating inventory across multiple auctions that dynamically incorporates the results of previous auctions as feedback into the management of subsequent auctions, and updating the lot size and number of auctions. We demonstrate how information signals from previous auctions can be used to update the auctioneer’s beliefs about the customers’ valuation distribution, and then to significantly increase the seller’s profit potential. We use several examples to reveal the benefits of using detailed transaction data for the management of sequential, multi-unit, online auctions and we demonstrate how these benefits are influenced by the inventory holding costs, the number of bidders, and the dispersion of consumers’ valuations.     

A model of a two-stage all-pay auction

The present paper studies a simple two-stage model of an all-pay auction under complete information. All-pay auctions are often used to model competition with irreversible investments such as political lobbying, and in the existing models, the equilibrium outcomes are quite different from the winner-pay auctions (under complete information): The unique equilibrium is in non-degenerate mixed strategies in the sealed-bid all-pay auction, and the highest value bidder wins at (virtually) no cost in the dollar auction. In sharp contrast with those existing models, the equilibrium outcome in the present setting is almost identical to the winner-pay auctions. That is, (a) the highest value bidder wins with probability one, and (b) the revenue of the seller is equal to the second highest value among the bidders. Also, from a mechanism-design point of view, the present game form is more robust than other all-pay mechanisms in that the seller does not need any information about the bidders’ valuations. Although the analysis focuses on the two-bidder two-stage case, the results extend to arbitrary numbers of bidders and stages.     

预算约束下广义第二价格关键字拍卖均衡分析

在关键字拍卖中,广告主预算约束是影响投标策略均衡的重要因素。针对广泛应用的广义第二价格机制,分析了预算约束下的关键字拍卖均衡性质。按照广告主的点击估价和预算分布情况,将广告主划分为天然完全赢家、天然部分赢家和天然输家这三种类型,提出了广告主投标临界值与关键值的概念,基于关键字拍卖不断重复进行的特点,分别从长期视角与短期视角建立了静态模型与动态模型,研究结果表明:静态环境下拍卖存在唯一的纯策略纳什均衡;动态环境下当广告主采用最优反应投标策略时拍卖将收敛至唯一的纳什均衡点,并且动态环境下拍卖商收入不低于静态环境下的拍卖收入。数值算例的结果表明在动态环境下不同的初始报价会导致拍卖收敛至不同的均衡点。研究结果为拍卖商提供了拍卖收入预测和拍卖机制优化的决策依据。     

All-pay auctions with risk-averse players

We study independent private-value all-pay auctions with risk-averse players. We show that: (1) Players with low values bid lower and players with high values bid higher than they would bid in the risk neutral case. (2) Players with low values bid lower and players with high values bid higher than they would bid in a first-price auction. (3) Players’ expected utilities in an all-pay auction are lower than in a first-price auction. We also use perturbation analysis to calculate explicit approximations of the equilibrium strategies of risk-averse players and the seller’s expected revenue. In particular, we show that in all-pay auctions the seller’s expected payoff in the risk-averse case may be either higher or lower than in the risk neutral case.     

Intuitive and noncompetitive equilibria in weakly efficient auctions with entry costs

I study weakly efficient auctions with entry costs, under the IPV assumption, following Tan and Yilankaya [Tan, G., Yilankaya, O., 2006. Equilibria in second price auctions with participation costs. Journal of Economic Theory 130, 205–219]. First, I generalize their Proposition 4 to what I call (generalized) intuitive equilibrium. By such I prove that if bidders’ valuation distributions are ordered in a (weak) first order domination ranking, then there exists an equilibrium in cutoff strategies where cutoffs are (weakly) increasingly ordered with respect to the domination ranking. Stronger bidders are thus ex ante more likely to participate. A second result states a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a noncompetitive cutoff equilibrium, in which only one bidder (if any) takes part in the auction. Neither the uniform distribution nor any distribution first order stochastically dominated by the uniform may ever satisfy that condition. If both intuitive and nonintuitive equilibria exist, I conjecture that intuitive equilibria tend to yield higher ex ante efficiency, while nonintuitive ones might yield higher expected revenues.     

Forward–Backward Stochastic Differential Games and Stochastic Control under Model Uncertainty

We study optimal stochastic control problems with jumps under model uncertainty. We rewrite such problems as stochastic differential games of forward–backward stochastic differential equations. We prove general stochastic maximum principles for such games, both in the zero-sum case (finding conditions for saddle points) and for the nonzero sum games (finding conditions for Nash equilibria). We then apply these results to study robust optimal portfolio-consumption problems with penalty. We establish a connection between market viability under model uncertainty and equivalent martingale measures. In the case with entropic penalty, we prove a general reduction theorem, stating that a optimal portfolio-consumption problem under model uncertainty can be reduced to a classical portfolio-consumption problem under model certainty, with a change in the utility function, and we relate this to risk sensitive control. In particular, this result shows that model uncertainty increases the Arrow–Pratt risk aversion index.     

公共资产预算配置的拍卖机制设计

本文探讨在财政部门作为政府出资人的框架下,通过设计一套可行的竞标机制来提高预算项目的配置效率。结合运用机制设计理论和拍卖理论与方法建立竞标机制设计模型,在保证竞标预算单位参与投标和真实显示自己效率的条件下最大化拍卖者——政府出资人的期望效用,并通过求解此模型得到最优的竞标机制。鉴于最优机制在形式上的复杂性,给出了第二高得分拍卖这种最优拍卖方式。最后对公共资产配置预算的规则如何确定才能减少效率损失进行了归纳。