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招标方在对承包商的资格预审过程中,需要对承包商的财务状况、技术能力、管理能力、施工经验等方面进行评审,以确定有资格参加投标的承包商.而在资格预审过程中,由于客观情况的复杂多变性和主观思维的不确定性,业主对承包商的各个属性的评价往往不能用确定的实数表示,而是给出一个范围,同时又由于业主的需求各不相同,导致业主对承包商也有一定的主观偏好.本文针对承包商评价指标的权重已知,业主对各个指标的评价以及对承包商的偏好不确定的情况,运用区间数多属性决策和灰色关联分析来解决承包商选择问题,通过引入区间数距离,得出区间数的灰色关联系数,最终对各个承包商进行排序.此方法的最大特点是能够处理不确定的决策信息和业主对承包商有偏好的决策问题,最后通过算例验证了本方法的可行性和有效性. 相似文献
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运用演化博弈分析方法,以业主及承包商在项目风险管理中的合作为例,建立项目主体在风险管理中合作的演化博弈模型,通过模型分析了模型中各参数对演变系统的影响、业主及承包商合作策略的演变规律,指出影响工程项目各方实现风险管理合作的主要影响因素是风险管理合作的成本及风险损失或收益的分配机制. 相似文献
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奖惩机制会对合同双方的收益产生重大影响,本文基于承包商和业主的双重视角,对不同奖惩机制下项目支付进度优化问题进行了研究。首先对所研究问题进行界定,并分别基于承包商和业主视角构建了不同奖惩机制下的优化模型;基于模型的属性设计了模拟退火启发式算法;最后通过一个实例对比了承包商和业主在四种不同奖惩机制下收益的优化结果,并对其中的关键参数进行了敏感性分析。结果显示:不同的奖惩机制对承包商和业主的收益有较大影响;不同的奖惩强度也会影响承包商和业主的收益。通过对奖惩机制类型及强度的分析,可以为项目中奖惩机制的设置提供定量化决策支持。 相似文献
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基于AHP和动量BP神经网络的工程项目承包商选择模型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
运用BP神经网络技术,采用动量BP算法,构建了基于动量BP神经网络的工程项目承包商选择模型,并将AHP的评价结果作为学习样本,对BP神经网络模型进行训练和测试.结果表明,基于AHP和动量BP神经网络的工程项目承包商选择模型是可行的,该模型具有较高的自组织、自适应和自学习能力以及较强的容错功能,能够为一般的工程项目承包商选择活动提供有效的参考和依据. 相似文献
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CMM中SQA评审项只有通过和不通过两种选择,且不同子项权重相同,很难服务于标杆管理.因此,提出了基于模糊评价集的SQA评审改进模型,通过专家打分和综合评判,让评审结果更加客观.通过将改进模型应用于ERP实施过程,说明其可操作性,且能有效地提高ERP实施的质量. 相似文献
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模式识别的Fuzzy统计方法及应用 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
运用模糊数学的概念和方法对具有模糊性的观测结果进行处理和识别 ,构成了模糊模式识别的基本内容 .利用 Fuzzy统计的方法建立了模式识别的数学模型 ,并编出模型的计算机程序 .按照科技部、教育部关于科研评价的“目标导向、分类实施、客观公正、注重实效”的要求 ,将上述程序应用于科研项目的评审中 ,克服了以往评审过程单一化、主观化的缺点 ,使评审客观、公正、合理 ,易于操作 . 相似文献
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本文研究银行授信额度约束下活动具有多种执行模式的工期最小化项目进度问题。首先对所研究问题进行界定;随后采用基于事件的研究方法构建了问题的整数规划优化模型;鉴于问题的NP-hard属性,设计了双层模拟退火搜索嵌套的启发式求解算法;最后对一个算例进行了求解分析,讨论了银行授信额度对项目进度安排及完成时间的影响。结果表明:随着银行授信额度的提高,承包商安排项目进度的可用资金随之增加,使得项目可以在较短的时间内完成;然而,如果在此过程中业主对承包商的支付总量保持不变,那么承包商的项目收益会随完成时间的提前而下降。 相似文献
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把建筑分包商的选择分为两个阶段,包括预选择阶段和决策选择阶段,并分别建立了两个阶段的评价准则体系.然后,基于群决策模糊聚类、群决策模糊神经网络两种模型和方法,给出了建筑分包商预选择和决策选择的具体实施步骤.最后的实证分析表明,对于建筑分包商的选择,该选择过程是实用和有效的. 相似文献
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In this paper, we study the price of catastrophe options with counterparty credit risk in a reduced form model. We assume that the loss process is generated by a doubly stochastic Poisson process, the share price process is modeled through a jump-diffusion process which is correlated to the loss process, the interest rate process and the default intensity process are modeled through the Vasicek model. We derive the closed form formulae for pricing catastrophe options in a reduced form model. Furthermore, we make some numerical analysis on the explicit formulae. 相似文献
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This paper considers parameter identification problems for a fermentation process. Since the fermentation process is nonlinear, it is difficult to use a single-model for describing such a process and thus we use the multiple model technique to study the identification methods. The basic idea is to establish the model of the fermentation process at each operation point by means of the least squares principle, to obtain multiple models with different points, and then use the weighting functions or interpolation methods to compute the total model or the global model. Finally, a numerical example is provided to test the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. 相似文献
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为解决多级制造过程关键质量特性识别中多质量特性之间的相关性问题,将偏最小二乘回归方法(Partial Least Squares Regression, PLSR)引入模型构建与分析中。首先应用状态空间方法建立多级制造过程关键质量特性识别模型,进而利用PLSR方法解决质量特性间的多重共线性问题并进行模型分析,识别关键质量特性,最后以卷烟生产过程为例介绍了该方法的应用。实例表明,该方法不仅可以有效识别多级制造过程关键质量特性,而且能够建立各级过程的输出质量对最终产品质量的影响及其质量特性之间相互关系的模型,反映多级生产过程的结构特征和各级过程质量特性之间的因果关系,为多级制造过程质量分析与控制提供依据。 相似文献
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Uncertainty theory provides a new tool to deal with uncertainty. The paper employs it to propose a new uncertain insurance model with variational lower limit, and gives a ruin index and uncertainty distribution for the uncertain insurance risk process that claim process is a renewal reward process. The model extends and improves uncertain insurance model presented by Liu. Finally, it also provides examples to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. 相似文献
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Process mean selection for a container-filling process is an important decision in a single-vendor single-buyer supply chain. Since the process mean determines the vendor’s conforming and yield rates, it influences the vendor–buyer decisions regarding the production lot size and number of shipments delivered from the vendor to buyer. It follows, therefore, that these decisions should be determined simultaneously in order to control the supply chain total cost. In this paper, we develop a model that integrates the single-vendor single-buyer problem with the process mean selection problem. This integrated model allows the vendor to deliver the produced lot to buyer in number of unequal-sized shipments. Moreover, every outgoing item is inspected, and each item failing to meet a lower specification limit is reprocessed. Further, in order to study the benefits of using this integrated model, two baseline cases are developed. The first of which considers a hierarchical model where the vendor determines the process mean and schedules of production and shipment separately. This hierarchical model is used to show the impact of integrating the process mean selection with production/inventory decisions. The other baseline case is studied in the sensitivity analysis where the optimal solution for a given process is compared to the optimal solution when the variation in the process output is negligible. The integrated model is expected to lead to reduction in reprocessing cost, minimal loss to customer due to the deviation from the optimum target value, and consequently, providing better products at reduced cost for customers. Also, a solution procedure is devised to find the optimal solution for the proposed model and sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of the model key parameters on the optimal solution. 相似文献
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Accurate knowledge of the effect of parameter uncertainty on process design and operation is essential for optimal and feasible operation of a process plant. Existing approaches dealing with uncertainty in the design and process operations level assume the existence of a well defined model to represent process behavior and in almost all cases convexity of the involved equations. However, most of the realistic case studies cannot be described by well characterised models. Thus, a new approach is presented in this paper based on the idea of High Dimensional Model Reduction technique which utilize a reduced number of model runs to build an uncertainty propagation model that expresses process feasibility. Building on this idea a systematic iterative procedure is developed for design under uncertainty with a unique characteristic of providing parametric expression of the optimal objective with respect to uncertain parameters. The proposed approach treats the system as a black box since it does not rely on the nature of the mathematical model of the process, as is illustrated through a number of examples. 相似文献