Impact of noise in a phytoplankton-zooplankton system

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a delayed toxic phytoplankton-two zooplankton system incorporating the effects of Levy noise and white noise. The value of this study lies in two aspects: Mathematically, we first prove the existence of a unique global positive solution of the system, and then we investigate the sufficient conditions that guarantee the stochastic extinction and persistence in the mean of each population. Ecologically, via numerical simulations, we find that the effect of white noise or Levy noise on the stochastic extinction and persistence of phytoplankton and zooplankton are similar, but the synergistic effects of the two noises on the stochastic extinction and persistence of these plankton are stronger than that of single noise. In addition, an increase in the toxin liberation rate or the intraspecific competition rate of zooplankton was found to be capable to increase the biomass of the phytoplankton but decrease the biomass of zooplankton. These results may help us to better understand the phytoplankton-zooplankton dynamics in the fluctuating environments.     

MODELING NUTRIENT (DISSOLVED INORGANIC NITROGEN) AND PLANKTON DYNAMICS AT SAGAR ISLAND OF HOOGHLY–MATLA ESTUARINE SYSTEM,WEST BENGAL,INDIA

Abstract Degradation of litter from mangrove forests adjacent to the creeks at Sagar Island of the Hooghly–Matla estuarine ecosystem is one of the principal sources of nutrient to the estuary. Nutrients augment the growth of phytoplankton, which in turn stimulates the production of zooplankton. Zooplankton serves as major food source for fish population of this estuarine system. Here, a dynamic model with three state variables (nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton) is proposed using nitrogen (mgN/l) as currency. Input of dissolved inorganic nitrogen as nutrient, water temperature, surface solar irradiance, and salinity of upstream and downstream of the estuary, collected from the field, are incorporated as graph time functions in the model. Calibration and validation are performed by using collected data of two consecutive years. Model results indicate that the growth of zooplankton and phytoplankton are enhanced by increase in nutrient input in the system. Zooplankton biomass is affected by decrease in the salinity of the estuary. Sensitivity analysis results at ±10% indicate that maximum growth rate of phytoplankton (P_max) is the most sensitive parameter to the nutrient pool although growth rate of zooplankton (g_z) and half saturation constant for phytoplankton grazing by zooplankton (K_z) are most sensitive parameters to phytoplankton and zooplankton compartments, respectively. The model depicts the present status of plankton dynamics, which serve as major food resource for herbivorous and carnivorous fish species of the estuary. Effect of deforestation is tested in the model. Therefore, from management perspective, this model can be used to predict the impact of mangroves on nutrient and plankton dynamics, which will give complete information of both shell and fin fish productions in the estuary.     

Non‐linear systems in plankton population dynamics and nitrogen cycles

In this paper we propose a new perspective of population dynamics of plankton, by considering some effects of global ecological cycles, in which a mixed population of plankton is embedded. The propagation of plankton is extremely influenced by various material cycles, such as Nitrogen cycles. Taking this global effect into consideration, we will construct a mathematical model of non‐linear system. Our model is a non‐linear, non‐equilibrium system based on a stochastic model realizing population dynamics of a mixed population of two species of plankton which is placed in a global nitrogen cycle. We show, in this article, that our model gives a new mathematical foundation of phenomena such as water blooms and the predominance of one type of plankton against the other. We calculate the probability of the occurrence of the water bloom of a mixed population and that is where one type of plankton predominates. We show, as a characteristic feature of our model, that the function of predominance has some discontinuity and that there exists a threshold point among the initial values, with respect to the type of plankton that predominates the other. In other words, there is a sort of phase transition in dynamic changes of plankton population, as a result of global ecological cycles. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mathematical modelling on harmful algal blooms in the presence of toxic substances

Effect of toxin producing plankton and its control is an intriguing problem in marine plankton ecology. In this paper we have proposed a three-component model consisting of a non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP) and zooplankton (Z), where the growth of zooplankton species reduce due to toxic chemicals released by phytoplankton species. It is observed that the three components persist if the predation rate of zooplankton population on toxic phytoplankton is bounded in certain regions. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Modeling and analysis of a marine plankton system with nutrient recycling and diffusion

This article describes a nutrient‐phytoplankton‐zooplankton system with nutrient recycling in the presence of toxicity. We have studied the dynamical behavior of the system with delayed nutrient recycling in the first part of the article. Uniform persistent of the system is examined. In the second part of the article, we have incorporated diffusion of the plankton population to the system and dynamical behavior of the system is analyzed with instantaneous nutrient recycling. The condition of the diffusion driven instability is obtained. The conditions for the occurrence of Hopf and Turing bifurcation critical line in a spatial domain are derived. Variation of the system with small periodicity of diffusive coefficient has been studied. Stability condition of the plankton system subject to the periodic diffusion coefficient of the zooplankton is derived. It is observed that nutrient‐phytoplankton‐zooplankton interactions are very complex and situation specific. Moreover, we have obtained different exciting results, ranging from stable situation to cyclic oscillatory behavior may occur under different favorable conditions, which may give some insights for predictive management. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 229–241, 2015     

Chaos in a seasonally and periodically forced phytoplankton–zooplankton system

The effect of seasonality and periodicity on plankton dynamics is investigated. Periodic variations are added to two different parameters of the plankton ecosystem: the growth rate of phytoplankton and the death rate of the zooplankton. The dynamic behaviors of the system is simulated numerically. A variety of complex population dynamics including chaos, quasi-periodicity, and periodic resonance are obtained. Our result reinforces the conjecture that seasonality and periodicity are crucial to plankton dynamics.     

Dynamical analysis of toxin producing Phytoplankton–Zooplankton interactions

In the present paper we consider a toxin producing phytoplankton–zooplankton model in which the toxin liberation by phytoplankton species follows a discrete time variation. Firstly we consider the elementary dynamical properties of the toxic-phytoplankton–zooplankton interacting model system in absence of time delay. Then we establish the existence of local Hopf-bifurcation as the time delay crosses a threshold value and also prove the existence of stability switching phenomena. Explicit results are derived for stability and direction of the bifurcating periodic orbit by using normal form theory and center manifold arguments. Global existence of periodic orbits is also established by using a global Hopf-bifurcation theorem. Finally, the basic outcomes are mentioned along with numerical results to provide some support to the analytical findings.     

Role of toxin producing phytoplankton on a plankton ecosystem

In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to study the role of toxin producing phytoplankton on a phytoplankton–zooplankton system with nutrient cycling. The model includes three state variables, viz., nutrient concentration, phytoplankton biomass and zooplankton biomass. It is assumed in the model that phytoplankton biomass is producing toxicant harmful for the zooplankton biomass. All the feasible equilibria of the system are obtained and the conditions for the existence of the interior equilibrium are determined. The local stability analysis of all the feasible equilibria are carried out and the possibility of Hopf-bifurcation of the interior equilibrium is studied. The threshold value in terms of constant input rate of nutrient is determined both analytically and numerically.     

Spatiotemporal pattern formation in a diffusive predator-prey system: an analytical approach

In this paper, we propose and analyse a mathematical model to study the mathematical aspect of reaction diffusion pattern formation mechanism in a predator-prey system. An attempt is made to provide an analytical explanation for understanding plankton patchiness in a minimal model of aquatic ecosystem consisting of phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish and nutrient. The reaction diffusion model system exhibits spatiotemporal chaos causing plankton patchiness in marine system. Our analytical findings, supported by the results of numerical experiments, suggest that an unstable diffusive system can be made stable by increasing diffusivity constant to a sufficiently large value. It is also observed that the solution of the system converges to its equilibrium faster in the case of two-dimensional diffusion in comparison to the one-dimensional diffusion. The ideas contained in the present paper may provide a better understanding of the pattern formation in marine ecosystem.     

Modelling Fruit Characteristics During Apple Maturation: A Stochastic Approach

At present, mathematical models to predict the change of fruit quality attributes during apple maturation are deterministic and do not take into account the large natural variability of fruit quality attributes during the growing season. In this work a stochastic system approach was developed to describe the quality evolution of fruit. The basic dynamics of fruit quality evolution was represented by means of a stochastic system, in which the initial conditions and the model parameters were specified as random variables together with their probability density functions. A fundamental approach from stochastic systems theory was used to compute the propagation of the probability density functions of fruit quality attributes, which requires the numerical solution of the Fokker–Planck equation.     

Hopf bifurcation and bistability of a nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model

In this paper we consider a nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model in aquatic environment and study its global dynamics. The existence and stability of equilibria are analyzed. It is shown that the system is permanent as long as the coexisting equilibrium exists. The discontinuous Hopf and classical Hopf bifurcations of the model are analytically verified. It is shown that phytoplankton bloom may occur even if the input rate of nutrient is low. Numerical simulations reveal the existence of saddle-node bifurcation of nonhyperbolic periodic orbit and subcritical discontinuous Hopf bifurcation, which presents a bistable phenomenon (a stable equilibrium and a stable limit cycle).     

Dynamical behavior of a stochastic model of gene expression with distributed delay and degenerate diffusion

This article is concerned with a stochastic model of gene expression with distributed delay and degenerate diffusion. We transform the model with weak kernel case into an equivalent system through the linear chain technique. Since the diffusion matrix is of degenerate type, the uniform ellipticity condition is not satisfied. The Markov semigroup theory is used to obtain the existence and uniqueness of a stable stationary distribution. We prove the densities of the distributions of the solutions can converge in L¹ to an invariant density. The existence of the stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability. Numerical simulation is introduced to illustrate the analytical result.     

Bottom up and top down effect on toxin producing phytoplankton and its consequence on the formation of plankton bloom

We consider a plankton-nutrient interaction model consisting of phytoplankton, zooplankton and dissolved limiting nutrient with general nutrient uptake functions and instantaneous nutrient recycling. In this model, it is assumed that phytoplankton releases toxic chemical for self defense against their predators. The model system is studied analytically and the threshold values for the existence and stability of various steady states are worked out. It is observed that if the maximal zooplankton conversion rate crosses a certain critical value, the system enters into Hopf bifurcation. Finally it is observed that to control the planktonic bloom and to maintain stability around the coexistence equilibrium we have to control the nutrient input rate specially caused by artificial eutrophication. In case if it is not possible to control the nutrient input rate, one could use toxic phytoplankton to prevent the recurrence bloom.     

System dynamics of euthrophication processes in lakes

Eutrophication is the phenomenon observed in the bodies of water that receive large influxes of nutrients due to agricultural runoff or urban waste disposal. It is characterized by blooms of either green or blue-green algae (often noxious smelling) and by a drastic reduction in dissolved oxygen and often makes it impossible for many species of fish and zooplankton to live in the water. The objective was to examine the effects of eutrophication on plankton seasonal dynamics. Simulation models have been used primary tool in the study of eutrophication in lakes. Many eutrophication models have been developed both to predict the effect of nutrient additions on lake biota and to examine how effective various nutrient diversions alternatives might be improved water quality. Systems dynamics was studied using the model, which is expressed as a series of four differential equations as its state variables for the rates of change of phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrogen and phosphorus. Influence of the phosphorus concentration on eutrophication was treated and studied as the one of the most important process in the lake ecosystem.     

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS APPLIED TO WILDERNESS PRESERVATION—OPTION VALUE UNCERTAINTY AND DITONICITY

It has been recognized for some time that when cost-benefit analysis is applied to irreversible environmental decisions, such as that of developing or preserving wilderness land, there can be an option value associated with the preservation decision, which arises when there is future uncertainty with respect to the benefits of development or preservation. In this paper the provenance of option value is examined and it is shown that an important cause is a special kind of uncertainty, viz. the possibility of reversals in direction of the relative valuations of wilderness land and developed land, a property we refer to as ditonicity. It is shown that the more ditonic the relative valuation process the greater the deviance between the certainty-equivalence development policy and the stochastically optimal one, and thus by implication the greater the option value. In the two cases with zero ditonicity, when relative wilderness valuations always increase or always decrease (even though in a stochastic fashion), there is zero option value. The model used assumes that service flows from wilderness and developed land are size-dependent, with future relative values known only in terms of a stochastic process, which can take jumps up or down of the same proportional size, at random times. Development can be partial or total and can occur in impulses at any time over an infinite time horizon.     

Probabilistic verification of a biodiesel production system using statistical model checking

Biochemical system designers are increasingly using formal modelling, simulation, and verification methods to improve the understanding of complex systems. Probabilistic models can incorporate realistic stochastic dynamics, but creating and analysing probabilistic models in a formal way is challenging. In this work, we present a stochastic model of biodiesel production that incorporates an inexpensive test of fuel quality, and we validate the model using statistical model checking, which can be used to evaluate simple or complex temporal properties efficiently. We also describe probabilistic simulation and analysis techniques for stochastic hybrid system (SHS) models to demonstrate the properties of our model. We introduce a variety of properties for various configurations of the reactor as well as results of testing our model against the properties.     

Stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model with cell size

In this paper, we study a stochastic nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model with cell size that represents the interaction between internal mechanism of species and external environment. We first investigate the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution with positive initial values. Then we construct sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution of positive solution. Once more, we find that large noise intensities cause the extinctions of phytoplankton and zooplankton. Finally, numerical simulations are given to verify the correctness of theoretical results.     

Modeling treatment of cancer using virotherapy with generalized logistic growth of tumor cells

Abstract

Virotherapy is an effective strategy in cancer treatment. It eliminates tumor cells without harming the healthy cells. In this article, a deterministic mathematical model to understand the dynamics of tumor cells in response to virotherapy is formulated and analyzed by incorporating cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). The basic reproduction number and the immune response reproduction number are computed and different equilibria of the proposed model are found. The local stability of different equilibria is discussed in detail. Further, the proposed model is extended to stochastic model. Numerical simulation is performed for both deterministic and stochastic models. It is observed that when both the reproduction numbers are greater than one, which corresponds to existence of unique nontrivial equilibrium point, dynamics of deterministic and stochastic models are almost same. The deterministic model shows a very complex dynamics when one or both the reproduction numbers are below one. The system exhibits both backward bifurcation and Hopf-bifurcation for suitable sets of parameters and in this situation it is not easy to predict the dynamics of cancer cells and virus particles. The existence of backward bifurcation demonstrates the fact that partial success of virotherapy can be achieved even if the immune response reproduction number is less than one.     

政府投资环保的随机增长模型

本文分析了一个带有污染的随机内生增长模型.利用随机最优化的方法,求出了最优的政府环保投资比率和最优的税收政策.并进一步得出了最优的收入税因污染的外部性指标、生产的扰动的增大而减少;而最优消费税则因这两个参数的增大而增加的结论.