The Mean-Variance Hedging of a Defaultable Option with Partial Information

Abstract

We consider the mean-variance hedging of a defaultable claim in a general stochastic volatility model. By introducing a new measure Q ⁰, we derive the martingale representation theorem with respect to the investors' filtration . We present an explicit form of the optimal-variance martingale measure by means of a stochastic Riccati equation (SRE). For a general contingent claim, we represent the optimal strategy and the optimal cost of the mean-variance hedging by means of another backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE). For the defaultable option, especially when there exists a random recovery rate we give an explicit form of the solution of the BSDE.     

Fisher information in window censored renewal process data and its applications

Suppose we have a renewal process observed over a fixed length of time starting from a random time point and only the times of renewals that occur within the observation window are recorded. Assuming a parametric model for the renewal time distribution with parameter θ, we obtain the likelihood of the observed data and describe the exact and asymptotic behavior of the Fisher information (FI) on θ contained in this window censored renewal process. We illustrate our results with exponential, gamma, and Weibull models for the renewal distribution. We use the FI matrix to determine optimal window length for designing experiments with recurring events when the total time of observation is fixed. Our results are useful in estimating the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimators and in determining the sample size and duration of clinical trials that involve recurring events associated with diseases such as lupus.     

The perimeter of uniform and geometric words: a probabilistic analysis

Abstract

Let a word be a sequence of n i.i.d. integer random variables. The perimeter P of the word is the number of edges of the word, seen as a polyomino. In this paper, we present a probabilistic approach to the computation of the moments of P. This is applied to uniform and geometric random variables. We also show that, asymptotically, the distribution of P is Gaussian and, seen as a stochastic process, the perimeter converges in distribution to a Brownian motion.     

On two-stage convex chance constrained problems

In this paper we develop approximation algorithms for two-stage convex chance constrained problems. Nemirovski and Shapiro (Probab Randomized Methods Des Uncertain 2004) formulated this class of problems and proposed an ellipsoid-like iterative algorithm for the special case where the impact function f (x, h) is bi-affine. We show that this algorithm extends to bi-convex f (x, h) in a fairly straightforward fashion. The complexity of the solution algorithm as well as the quality of its output are functions of the radius r of the largest Euclidean ball that can be inscribed in the polytope defined by a random set of linear inequalities generated by the algorithm (Nemirovski and Shapiro in Probab Randomized Methods Des Uncertain 2004). Since the polytope determining r is random, computing r is difficult. Yet, the solution algorithm requires r as an input. In this paper we provide some guidance for selecting r. We show that the largest value of r is determined by the degree of robust feasibility of the two-stage chance constrained problem—the more robust the problem, the higher one can set the parameter r. Next, we formulate ambiguous two-stage chance constrained problems. In this formulation, the random variables defining the chance constraint are known to have a fixed distribution; however, the decision maker is only able to estimate this distribution to within some error. We construct an algorithm that solves the ambiguous two-stage chance constrained problem when the impact function f (x, h) is bi-affine and the extreme points of a certain “dual” polytope are known explicitly. Research partially supported by NSF grants CCR-00-09972, DMS-01-04282 and ONR grant N000140310514.     

Perishable Inventory System at Service Facilities with N Policy

Abstract

This article presents a perishable stochastic inventory system under continuous review at a service facility in which the waiting hall for customers is of finite size M. The service starts only when the customer level reaches N (< M), once the server has become idle for want of customers. The maximum storage capacity is fixed as S. It is assumed that demand for the commodity is of unit size. The arrivals of customers to the service station form a Poisson process with parameter λ. The individual customer is issued a demanded item after a random service time, which is distributed as negative exponential. The items of inventory have exponential life times. It is also assumed that lead time for the reorders is distributed as exponential and is independent of the service time distribution. The demands that occur during stock out periods are lost.The joint probability distribution of the number of customers in the system and the inventory levels is obtained in steady state case. Some measures of system performance in the steady state are derived. The results are illustrated with numerical examples.     

On Generating Random Intervals and Hyperrectangles

Abstract

We look at the problem of generating a random hyperrectangle in a unit hypercube such that each point of the hypercube has probability p of being covered. For random intervals of [0, 1], we compare various methods based either on the distribution of the length or on the distribution of the midpoint. It is shown that no constant length solution exists. Nice versatility is achieved when a random interval is chosen from among the spacings defined by a Dirichlet process. A small simulation is included.     

Design Adaptive Nearest Neighbor Regression Estimation

This paper deals with nonparametric regression estimation under arbitrary sampling with an unknown distribution. The effect of the distribution of the design, which is a nuisance parameter, can be eliminated by conditioning. An upper bound for the conditional mean squared error of k−NN estimates leads us to consider an optimal number of neighbors, which is a random function of the sampling. The corresponding estimate can be used for nonasymptotic inference and is also consistent under a minimal recurrence condition. Some deterministic equivalents are found for the random rate of convergence of this optimal estimate, for deterministic and random designs with vanishing or diverging densities. The proposed estimate is rate optimal for standard designs.     

Statistical analysis of hierarchical stochastic models: Examples and approaches

This paper introduces and illustrates the concept of hierarchical or random parameter stochastic process models. These models arise when members of a population each generate a stochastic process governed by certain parameters and the values of the parameters may be viewed as single realizations of random variables. The paper treats the estimation of the individual parameter values and the parameters of the superpopulation distribution. Examples from system reliability, pharmacokinetic compartment models, and criminal careers are introduced; a reliability (Poisson process-exponential interval) process is examined in greater detail. An explicit, approximate, robust estimator of individual (log) failure rates is presented for the case of a long-tailed (Studentt) superpopulation. This estimator exhibits desirable limited shrinkage properties, refusing to borrow unjustified strength. Numerical properties of such estimators are described more fully elsewhere.     

Optimal Open-Loop Feedback Control of Robots under uncertainty

The aim of this presentation is to construct an optimal open-loop feedback controller for robots, which takes into account stochastic uncertainties. This way, optimal regulators being insensitive with respect to random parameter variations can be obtained. Usually, a precomputed feedback control is based on exactly known or estimated model parameters. However, in practice, often exact informations about model parameters, e.g. the payload mass, are not given. Supposing now that the probability distribution of the random parameter variation is known, in the following, stochastic optimisation methods will be applied in order to obtain robust open-loop feedback control. Taking into account stochastic parameter variations, the method works with expected cost functions evaluating the primary control expenses and the tracking error. The expectation of the total costs has then to be minimized. Corresponding to Model Predictive Control (MPC), here a sliding horizon is considered. This means that, instead of minimizing an integral from a starting time point t₀ to the final time t_f, the future time range [t; t+T], with a small enough positive time unit T, will be taken into account. The resulting optimal regulator problem under stochastic uncertainty will be solved by using the Hamiltonian of the problem. After the computation of a H-minimal control, the related stochastic two-point boundary value problem is then solved in order to find a robust optimal open-loop feedback control. The performance of the method will be demonstrated by a numerical example, which will be the control of robot under random variations of the payload mass. (© 2010 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Random doubly stochastic tridiagonal matrices

Let \begin{align*}{\mathcal T}\end{align*}n be the compact convex set of tridiagonal doubly stochastic matrices. These arise naturally in probability problems as birth and death chains with a uniform stationary distribution. We study ‘typical’ matrices T∈ \begin{align*}{\mathcal T}\end{align*}n chosen uniformly at random in the set \begin{align*}{\mathcal T}\end{align*}n. A simple algorithm is presented to allow direct sampling from the uniform distribution on \begin{align*}{\mathcal T}\end{align*}n. Using this algorithm, the elements above the diagonal in T are shown to form a Markov chain. For large n, the limiting Markov chain is reversible and explicitly diagonalizable with transformed Jacobi polynomials as eigenfunctions. These results are used to study the limiting behavior of such typical birth and death chains, including their eigenvalues and mixing times. The results on a uniform random tridiagonal doubly stochastic matrices are related to the distribution of alternating permutations chosen uniformly at random.© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 42, 403–437, 2013     

Analysis of multiserver retrial queueing system: A martingale approach and an algorithm of solution

The paper studies a multiserver retrial queueing system withm servers. Arrival process is a point process with strictly stationary and ergodic increments. A customer arriving to the system occupies one of the free servers. If upon arrival all servers are busy, then the customer goes to the secondary queue, orbit, and after some random time retries more and more to occupy a server. A service time of each customer is exponentially distributed random variable with parameter μ₁. A time between retrials is exponentially distributed with parameter μ₂ for each customer. Using a martingale approach the paper provides an analysis of this system. The paper establishes the stability condition and studies a behavior of the limiting queue-length distributions as μ₂ increases to infinity. As μ₂→∞, the paper also proves the convergence of appropriate queue-length distributions to those of the associated “usual” multiserver queueing system without retrials. An algorithm for numerical solution of the equations, associated with the limiting queue-length distribution of retrial systems, is provided. AMS 2000 Subject classifications: 60K25 60H30.     

A Computationally Motivated Definition Of Parametric Estimation And Its Applications To The Gaussian Distribution

We introduce a treatment of parametric estimation in which optimality of an estimator is measured in probability rather than in variance (the measure for which the strongest general results are known in statistics). Our motivation is that the quality of an approximation algorithm is measured by the probability that it fails to approximate the desired quantity within a set tolerance. We concentrate on the Gaussian distribution and show that the sample mean is the unique “best” estimator, in probability, for the mean of a Gaussian distribution. We also extend this method to general penalty functions and to multidimensional spherically symmetric Gaussians. The algorithmic significance of studying the Gaussian distribution is established by showing that determining the average matching size in a graph is #P-hard, and moreover approximating it reduces to estimating the mean of a random variable that (under some mild conditions) has a distribution closely approximating a Gaussian. This random variable is (essentially) polynomial time samplable, thereby yielding an FPRAS for the problem.     

Estimation of parameters in a two-parameter exponential distribution using ranked set sample

In situations where the experimental or sampling units in a study can be easily ranked than quantified, McIntyre (1952,Aust. J. Agric. Res.,3, 385–390) proposed that the mean ofn units based on aranked set sample (RSS) be used to estimate the population mean, and observed that it provides an unbiased estimator with a smaller variance compared to a simple random sample (SRS) of the same sizen. McIntyre's concept ofRSS is essentially nonparametric in nature in that the underlying population distribution is assumed to be completely unknown. In this paper we further explore the concept ofRSS when the population is partially known and the parameter of interest is not necessarily the mean. To be specific, we address the problem of estimation of the parameters of a two-parameter exponential distribution. It turns out that the use ofRSS and its suitable modifications results in much improved estimators compared to the use of aSRS.     

On performance comparison of MR/GI/1 queues

In this paper we are interested in the effect that dependencies in the arrival process to a queue have on queueing properties such as mean queue length and mean waiting time. We start with a review of the well known relations used to compare random variables and random vectors, e.g., stochastic orderings, stochastic increasing convexity, and strong stochastic increasing concavity. These relations and others are used to compare interarrival times in Markov renewal processes first in the case where the interarrival time distributions depend only on the current state in the underlying Markov chain and then in the general case where these interarrivai times depend on both the current state and the next state in that chain. These results are used to study a problem previously considered by Patuwo et al. [14].Then, in order to keep the marginal distributions of the interarrivai times constant, we build a particular transition matrix for the underlying Markov chain depending on a single parameter,p. This Markov renewal process is used in the Patuwo et al. [14] problem so as to investigate the behavior of the mean queue length and mean waiting time on a correlation measure depending only onp. As constructed, the interarrival time distributions do not depend onp so that the effects we find depend only on correlation in the arrival process.As a result of this latter construction, we find that the mean queue length is always larger in the case where correlations are non-zero than they are in the more usual case of renewal arrivals (i.e., where the correlations are zero). The implications of our results are clear.     

Factorization and Stochastic Decomposition Properties in Bulk Queues with Generalized Vacations

This paper considers a class of stationary batch-arrival, bulk-service queues with generalized vacations. The system consists of a single server and a waiting room of infinite capacity. Arrivals of customers follow a batch Markovian arrival process. The server is unavailable for occasional intervals of time called vacations, and when it is available, customers are served in groups of fixed size B. For this class of queues, we show that the vector probability generating function of the stationary queue length distribution is factored into two terms, one of which is the vector probability generating function of the conditional queue length distribution given that the server is on vacation. The special case of batch Poisson arrivals is carefully examined, and a new stochastic decomposition formula is derived for the stationary queue length distribution.AMS subject classification: 60K25, 90B22, 60K37     

Estimation of the distribution of random shifts deformation

Consider discrete values of functions shifted by unobserved translation effects, which are independent realizations of a random variable with unknown distribution μ modeling the variability in the response of each individual. Our aim is to construct a nonparametric estimator of the density of these random translation deformations using semiparametric preliminary estimates of the shifts. Based on the results of Dalalyan et al. [7], semiparametric estimators are obtained in our discrete framework and their performance studied. From these estimates we construct a nonparametric estimator of the target density. Both rates of convergence and an algorithm to construct the estimator are provided.      

Random copy of a segment within a convex domain

Under the assumption that S is a segment of the length l and D is a bounded, convex domain in the Euclidean plane ℝ², the paper considers the randomly moving copy L of S, under the condition that it hits D. Denote by L| the length of L ∩ D. In the paper an elementary expression for the distribution function F _L (x) of the random variable L| is obtained. Note that F _L (x) can have a jump at the point l or can be a continuous function depending on l and the domainD. In particular, a relation between chord length distribution functions of D and F _L (x) is given. Moreover, we derive explicit forms of F _L (x) for the disk and regular n-gons with n = 3÷7.     

Generating multivariate correlated samples

Summary  Generating random samples from multivariate distributions is a common, requirement in many fields of study. Often the complete joint distribution is not specified to the scientist. This paper addresses the situation where only the marginals and the correlation matrix are specified. We suggest a deterministic algorithm, PERMCORR, to approximately achieve the required correlation structure that can be used to get good initial values to standard stochastic algorithms. In many situations the output of PERMCORR is already accurate enough to preempt any need for running an expensive stochastic algorithm. We provide some theoretical justification for our method as well as simulation studies. We also provide a bootstrap technique based on PERMCORR.     

On intensities of perturbed random measures on Hausdorff spaces

Abstract

This article studies classes of random measures on topological spaces perturbed by stochastic processes (a.k.a. modulated random measures). We render a rigorous construction of the stochastic integral of functions of two variables and showed that such an integral is a random measure. We establish a new Campbell-type formula that, along with a rigorous construction of modulation, leads to the intensity of a modulated random measure. Mathematical formalism of integral-driven random measures and their stochastic intensities find numerous applications in stochastic models, physics, astrophysics, and finance that we discuss throughout the article.