| 输气管道系统分析与经济风险模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 张传平,张翼.输气管道系统分析与经济风险模拟[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(20). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张传平 张翼 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石油大学,经济管理学院,山东,东营,257061
2. 中国石油大学,石油天然气工程学院,北京,102200 |
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| 摘 要： | 为揭示输气管道系统结构,利用解释结构模型技术,给出了输气管道系统的11级递阶结构模型;分析输气管道系统经营风险,据其递阶结构,对固化内生变量的输气管道系统,对燃气价格、实际输量、管输费率等外生变量变化时的财务内部收益率进行了蒙特卡罗模拟;得到了不失一般性的输气管道建设项目财务内部收益主经的95%置信区间.
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| 关 键 词： | 输气管道 系统分析 解释结构模型 模拟 |
The System Analysis and Risk Simulation of Gas Transportation Pipeline |
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| ZHANG Chuan-ping,ZHANG Yi.The System Analysis and Risk Simulation of Gas Transportation Pipeline[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2009,39(20). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Chuan-ping ZHANG Yi |
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| Abstract: | In order to reveal transportation pipeline system structure, the Interpretative Structural Model technology is used, a 11-grade structural model is proposed. To analyse operation risk of transportation pipeline project with endogenous parameter, based on ISM, its Financial Internal Return Rate is simulated, with Monte Carlo procedure, when price of fuel gas and transportation volume as well as transportation gas fee-rate is changing. The F. I. R. R. 's 95% confidence range of gas transmission pipeline project is showed. |
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| Keywords: | gas transportation pipeline system analysis ISM simulation |
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