台风灾害预警—应急响应两阶段决策方法

针对具有不确定情景预测信息的台风灾害应急决策问题,提出一种同时考虑事前预警措施和事中应急响应措施的两阶段决策方法。该方法中,首先考虑决策者的风险规避行为,通过计算各应急响应措施的实施效用来确定针对不同预警措施和灾害情景下的最优应急响应措施;其次考虑决策者的后悔规避行为,计算任意两个预警措施相比较的后悔—欣喜值,并通过最大熵法将不确定情景的区间概率转化为点概率;在此基础上,计算出各预警措施的综合后悔—欣喜值及排序值,并最终确定第一阶段的最优预警措施和第二阶段针对各灾害情景的最优应急响应措施。最后,通过算例研究和对比分析说明该方法的可行性和有效性。

A Two-stage Decision-making Method for Typhoon Disaster Prevention and Emergency Response

With respect to the emergency decision-making problem for typhoon disaster with uncertain scenario predictions,a two-stage decision-making method which considers both the prevention and emergency response actions is proposed.Firstly,the risk aversion behavior of decision makers is considered,and the most desirable emergency response action concerning each prevention action and each scenario is determined by calculating the utility of each emergency response action.Secondly,the regret aversion behavior of decision makers is considered,and the regret-delight values for pairwise comparison of prevention actions are calculated.Then,the interval probability of uncertain scenarios is converted to point probability by maximum entropy method.Further,the comprehensive regret-delight value and the ranking value of each prevention action are calculated.Moreover,the most desirable prevention action of the first stage and the emergency response action corresponding to each disaster scenario of the second stage can be determined.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are demonstrated by a numerical example and comparative analysis.