基于临界点的突破性技术创新研究

突破性技术创新是与传统的技术创新相区别的一类新型的研究领域，这种创新已经成为一个地区或国家经济持续发展的主要动力．成功的突破性技术创新对市场的影响最终表现为：已有的市场格局被打破，市场上出现新的游戏规则，一种新的运营模式在行业内产生，且出现新的市场份额结构和主流技术．一项突破性技术创新逐渐转变为市场上的主流技术的过程中，消费者是如何起作用的？本文结合网络外部性理论，运用价值分析法构建消费者购买决策模型，对突破性技术创新转变为市场上的主流技术的临界点进行了研究，旨在提高突破性技术创新成功的几率．

Studies on Critical Point of Disruptive Technology Innovation

Disrupitve technology innovation is a new research field which is different from the traditional technology innovation and has been the main force for sustainable economic development of a area or a country. The impact of successful disruptive technology innovation on market leads to significant changes of market structure, emergence of new market rules, new business model, emergence of new market structures and mainstream technology. How consumers work in the process of the transformation for the disruptive technology innovation gradually to be the mainsream technology on the market. In this paper, the alteration of consumers＇ preferences is researched based on the value analysis method by utilizing the theory of network exterior. The model of consumers＇ purchase decision is established. The time point of different types of consumers who use new products is derived. How each group of consumers starts to use new products is studied in the end, which aims to provide successful probability for disruptive technology innovation.