Waiting-time tail probabilities in queues with long-tail service-time distributions

We consider the standardGI/G/1 queue with unlimited waiting room and the first-in first-out service discipline. We investigate the steady-state waiting-time tail probabilitiesP(W>x) when the service-time distribution has a long-tail distribution, i.e., when the service-time distribution fails to have a finite moment generating function. We have developed algorithms for computing the waiting-time distribution by Laplace transform inversion when the Laplace transforms of the interarrival-time and service-time distributions are known. One algorithm, exploiting Pollaczek's classical contourintegral representation of the Laplace transform, does not require that either of these transforms be rational. To facilitate such calculations, we introduce a convenient two-parameter family of long-tail distributions on the positive half line with explicit Laplace transforms. This family is a Pareto mixture of exponential (PME) distributions. These PME distributions have monotone densities and Pareto-like tails, i.e., are of orderx ^–r forr>1. We use this family of long-tail distributions to investigate the quality of approximations based on asymptotics forP(W>x) asx. We show that the asymptotic approximations with these long-tail service-time distributions can be remarkably inaccurate for typicalx values of interest. We also derive multi-term asymptotic expansions for the waiting-time tail probabilities in theM/G/1 queue. Even three terms of this expansion can be remarkably inaccurate for typicalx values of interest. Thus, we evidently must rely on numerical algorithms for determining the waiting-time tail probabilities in this case. When working with service-time data, we suggest using empirical Laplace transforms.