农作物单产的最大熵分布及在费率厘定上的应用

农作物单产分布的确定是农业保险中费率厘定的基础。本文引入最大熵原理,基于最大熵优化模型得出农作物单产的最大熵分布,并以此进行费率厘定。同时以辽宁省主要作物水稻、玉米、大豆和花生为例,确定了该四种农作物的费率,分别为4.45%、6.77%、6.34%、6.43%。结果表明:利用最大熵分布理论进行费率厘定不需要事先假定农作物单产分布的形式,而且考虑了更多作物单产分布的信息,为农业保险费率的合理精算提供一种新的可供选择的方法,有助于农业风险决策的科学化。

Maximum Entropy Distribution of Crop Yield and Its Application to Premium Rating

Crop yield distribution is the basis of premium rating of agricultural insurance in China. In this paper, the maximum entropy optimization model of maximum entropy principle is applied to determine the maximum entropy distribution of crop yield and further to give the premium of crop. Meanwhile, based on the maximum entropy distribution, the agricultural premium of the rice, corn, soybeans and peanuts of main crops in Liaoning are determined, respectively 4.45%, 6.77%, 6.34%, 6.43%. The results show that the method of agricultural premium rating on the basis of maximum entropy principle needn't to assume the distribution form of each crop in advance. On the other hand,the maximum entropy optimization model can consider more information about crop yield distribution. This study provides a more reasonable method of the determination of agricultural insurance rate which is helpful to the scientific decision-making of agricultural risk.