多阶段应急决策的方案链选择方法

针对多阶段不同情景下多指标多任务的应急决策问题,提出了一种方案链选择方法。在该方法中,首先给出了决策方案链的概念,并对多阶段多指标多任务的应急决策问题进行了描述;然后根据相邻阶段的子方案之间的相容性,构建了相容性关系矩阵;进一步地,在考虑相邻阶段子方案之间相容性的情形下,以各阶段的子方案的综合评价值最大为目标,建立了应急决策的方案链选择的优化模型。通过求解模型,得到应急决策的最优方案链。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。

Method for Selecting the Alternative Chain in Multi-Stage Emergency Decision

With respect to the multi-stage multi-criteria and multi-task emergency decision problems, a method for selecting the alternative chain is proposed. In this method, the concept of alternative chain is given and multi-stage multi-criteria and multi-task emergency decision problem is described. The compatibility relationship matrices are constructed to reflect the sub-alternative compatibility between two adjacent stages. An optimization model is developed to solve the alternative chain selection problem on the basis of compatibility relationship matrices and sub-alternative evaluation values. And the optimal alternative chain can be determined by solving the constructed model. Finally, an example is given to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.