反导装备维修体制的Monte-Carlo仿真

定义反导装备在不同维修体制下的战备完好性，介绍战备完好率的计算方法。构建装备维修延误时间模型，以维修延误时间作为衡量维修体制对战备完好性影响的标准。利用Monte-Carlo方法对模型进行仿真，得到规定战备完好率下不同维修体制对维修延误时间的要求。对MTBF和MTTR进行敏感性分析，验证确定的参数变化范围是合理的。仿真结果表明：2级维修体制在提高反导装备的战备完好性方面更具有优越性，该结论可以为反导装备维修体制的建立提供建议和参考。

Monte-Carlo Simulating for the Maintenance System of Antiballistic Missile Equipment

This paper defines the operational readiness of terminal high altitude antiballistic missile equipment under different maintenance systems, introduces how to calculate the operational readiness rates of equipment and establishing a repair delay time model. By utilizing the repair delay time to value the influence of maintenance systems on operational readiness rates is judged. Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the model, and the demands of different maintenance systems on the repair delay time under the set operational readiness rates are got. The sensitivity analyses of MTBF and MTTR are made to validate that the parameter variety bound is reasonable. The results indicate that two-level maintenance is more beneficial to enhancing the operational readiness. The conclusion can be a reference for building terminal high altitude antiballistic missile equipment maintenance system.