THE ULTRAVIOLET DOSE DEPENDENCE OF NON-MELANOMA SKIN CANCER INCIDENCE

Abstract— We correlate annual ultraviolet dose estimates with age specific and age adjusted incidence data for non-melanoma skin cancer in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. We first examine (1) a reciprocity or photographic model in which incidence rates (R) are related to exposure (E) which is the product of age (T) and annual dose (D). We also test several models which violate reciprocity including models identified by the labels: (2) Dose potency; (3) Double cause; (4) Age-exposure and (5) separable. Our analyses together with the recent National Cancer Institute study favors the age-exposure model and/or the double cause models. All models lead to biological amplification factors (defined as the ratio of the percent increase in skin cancer incidence due to a 1% increase in dose) greater than unity. For the U.S. we find the biological amplification to be approximately 1.8 for the population center but greater in regions of higher UV annual dose, and less in regions of lower annual UV dose.