An extremal problem related to probability

Summary We consider a walk from a stateA ₁ to a stateA _n+1 in which the probability of remaining atA _i isp _i , and the probability of progressing fromA _i toA _i+1 is 1 –p _i . The probabilityW _nk of reachingA _n+1 fromA ₁ in exactlyn + k steps can then be expressed as a polynomial of degreen + k in then variablesp ₁,,p _n . We determine the maximum value ofW _nk and the (unique) choice (p ₁,,p _n ) for which this extremum occurs.Dedicated to Professor Otto Haupt with best wishes on his 100th birthday