基于BN-bow-tie的生物质气化中毒事故分析

通过将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络,计算生物质气化中毒事故发生的概率为1.202 98×10-4/d,利用贝叶斯网络双向推导与诊断的功能计算基本事件的后验概率及重要度,从而分析出系统中导致事故发生的薄弱环节.结合bow-tie法同时分析导致薄弱环节失效的因素及失效后可能会出现的后果,基于此得出防止薄弱环节失效的预防措施以及失效后采取的控制措施,进而降低事故发生的概率;对薄弱环节阀门泄漏采取措施后,可使得中毒事故发生概率降低20.92%,最终达到降低事故发生概率的目的.

Analysis of Biomass Gasification Poisoning Accident Based on BN-bow-tie

Occurrence probability of biomass gasification poisoning accident is 1.20298×10^-4/d by transforming fault tree to Bayesian network. The two-way derived and diagnosed function of Bayesian network was used to calculate posterior probabilities and worth of each basic event. Then analyze the weak point which led to accident in the system. The reason and the consequence of failure were analyzed combining the bow-tie. Then prevention measures were got to prevent weak point from failure and control measures were adopted after it had turned to be failure. Thereby reduce the probability of accident. After adopting measures to weak point valve leakage it can reduce poisoning accident probability by 20.92%. The aim is to reduce accident probabilities.