Comparison of techniques for assessing effects of loading uncertainty upon a long term phosphorous model |
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| Authors: | Ronald Malone David S Bowles MP Windham WJ Grenney |
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| Institution: | Department of Civil Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA;Law Engineering and Testing Company, Englewood, Colorado, USA;Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper compares the feasibility of applying three stochastic techniques to a linear water quality model. The Monte Carlo, first order analysis, and generation of moment equation techniques are applied to a long term phosphorus model of Lake Washington. The effect of uncertainty of the phosphorus loading term on simulated phosphorus levels is analysed. The simulated concentrations of phosphorus in the water column are very responsive to uncertainty in annual phosphorus loading, but the sediment concentrations are relatively insensitive. All three stochastic techniques produced identical results, but the level of preparatory and computational effort required varies considerably. The Monte Carlo technique requires the most computation time of the three stochastic techniques examined. The first order analysis and generation of moment equation techniques are shown to be precise and efficient methods of stochastic analysis. In this application they required less than one-thousandth the computer time of the Monte Carlo technique |
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| Keywords: | mathematical model Monte Carlo technique linear water quality model |
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