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On Time Scales of Intrinsic Oscillations in the Climate System
Authors:Anastasios A. Tsonis  Geli Wang  Wenxu Lu  Sergey Kravtsov  Christopher Essex  Michael W. Asten
Abstract:Proxy temperature data records featuring local time series, regional averages from areas all around the globe, as well as global averages, are analyzed using the Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) method. As explained in the paper, SFA is much more effective than the traditional Fourier analysis in identifying slow-varying (low-frequency) signals in data sets of a limited length. We find the existence of a striking gap from ~1000 to about ~20,000 years, which separates intrinsic climatic oscillations with periods ranging from ~60 years to ~1000 years, from the longer time-scale periodicities (20,000 year+) involving external forcing associated with Milankovitch cycles. The absence of natural oscillations with periods within the gap is consistent with cumulative evidence based on past data analyses, as well as with earlier theoretical and modeling studies.
Keywords:time series analysis   climate variability   intrinsic oscillations   astronomical forcings
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