Estimating Reactivity Ratios From Triad Fraction Data

Reactivity ratio estimation is a non-linear estimation problem. Typically, reactivity ratios are estimated using the instantaneous copolymer composition equation, otherwise known as the Mayo-Lewis model, based on low conversion (<5%) copolymer composition data. However, there are other instantaneous models, which can be used to estimate reactivity ratios, such as the instantaneous triad fraction equations. The aim of this paper is to determine the potential improvement in reactivity ratio estimates when triad fraction data is used in place of and in combination with copolymer composition data. The interest in using triad fraction data in parameter estimation, stems from the fact that there are a greater number of responses measured (six triad fractions) compared to composition leading to data with theoretically more information content. In principle this should lead to reactivity ratio estimates having less uncertainty. In this study, the parameter estimates are obtained by employing the error in variables model (EVM), assuming a multiplicative error structure. Several case studies involving published literature data for different copolymer systems are presented. As the case studies demonstrate in general more precise estimates can be obtained from triad fraction data. Combining the triad fraction with composition data leads to little additional improvement. However, discrepancies arise between reactivity ratios estimated from composition data compared with those obtained from triad fraction data depending upon the copolymer system. Those copolymer systems exhibiting more heterogeneity due to phase separation during polymerization may be showing more discrepancy.