中国部门生产链演化趋势及动态影响分析

研究部门间生产链关系及其演化趋势和生产链上、下游顺次动态影响情况。利用中国1987～2005年不变价序列投入产出表和APL模型，计算发现1987～2005年国民经济中存在四条重要的生产链，分析了这一时期四条生产链的演化趋势。进一步，以“黑色金属矿开采业－黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业－金属制品业”生产链为例，基于向量自回归模型，运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了生产链上、下游部门相互间的动态影响情况。结果有助于确定国民经济总体战略及制定相关产业政策，并在制定经济调控政策时更好地预期政策的时效性。

Analysis of the Evolvement Trend and Dynamic Impact of Sectors' Production Chains in China

In this paper, we study the production chains relationship among sectors of China' s economy, their evolvement trend and the dynamic impact on the upriver and the downriver of these production chains. Using China's price-fixed sequence input-output tables during 1987 ～2005 and APL model, this paper finds four important production chains of China's economy, then analyses their evolvement trends. Furthermore, taking the production chain "Black metals ore mining-Black metals smelting and pressing-Metal products" as a example, using IRF and VD based on VAR model, this paper analyses the dynamic impact on the upriver and the downriver of this production chain. The result is helpful for making the general strategy of national economy, related industry policies and predicting the timeliness of these economic regulation and control policies.