Estimation of the Gauss–Markov process from observation of its sign

Let X(t) be the ergodic Gauss–Markov process with mean zero and covariance function e^?|τ|. Let D(t) be +1, 0 or ?1 according as X(t) is positive, zero or negative. We determine the non-linear estimator of X(t₁) based solely on D(t), ?T ? t ? 0, that has minimal mean–squared error ε²(t₁, T). We present formulae for ε²(t₁, T) and compare it numerically for a range of values of t₁ and T with the best linear estimator of X(t₁) based on the same data.