A New Expectation Identity and Its Application in the Calculations of Predictive Powers Assuming Normality |
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Authors: | ZHANG Yingying RONG Tengzhong LI Manman |
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Institution: | Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, College of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 401331, China |
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Abstract: | For calculating the predictive powers, we suggest an elegant expectation identity to directly calculate the expectations. We calculate the predictive powers of the hypotheses with a nonzero threshold for five different categories, which are non-sequential trials with classical power and Bayesian power, and sequential trials with hybrid predictions, Bayesian predictions, and classical predictions. Moreover, the calculations of the various predictive powers are illustrated through
three examples. Finally, when calculating the average success probability in \ncite{9}, it is tricky to find the predictive distribution for the predictive power, whereas, it is straightforward to utilize the expectation identity for the calculation. |
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Keywords: | expectation identity predictive power normal model one-sided hypothesis average success probability (ASP) |
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