Integrating stochastic programming and decision tree techniques in land conversion problems |
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Authors: | Vincenzina Messina Valentina Bosetti |
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Institution: | (1) DISCo-Dipartimento di Informatica Sistemistica e Comunicazione, Universitá degli Studi di Milano, Bicocca-Edificio U7-Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, 20126 Milano, Italy |
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Abstract: | This paper is concerned with gradual land conversion problems, placing the main focus on the interaction between time and
uncertainty. This aspect is extremely relevant since most decisions made in the field of natural resources and sustainable
development are irreversible decisions. In particular, we discuss and develop a scenario-based multi-stage stochastic programming
model in order to determine the optimal land portfolio in time, given uncertainty affecting the market. The approach is then
integrated in a decision tree framework in order to account for domain specific (environmental) uncertainty that, diversely
from market uncertainty, may depend on the decision taken. Although, the designed methodology has many general applications,
in the present work we focus on a particular case study, concerning a semi-degraded natural park located in northern Italy. |
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Keywords: | Stochastic programming Decision analysis Land management |
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