基于不确定性双层规划的水资源配置及和谐评价

水资源供需矛盾正在加剧，需要建立与经济发展、人口增长和城市扩张相适应的水资源优化配置模型. 本文开发了区间模糊可信度约束双层规划（IFCBP）模型，优化分配水资源，并运用和谐评价方法量化计算配置前后（现状年和规划年）的水资源?经济社会?环境系统的和谐程度. 该模型使用区间值和模糊集来处理不确定信息，规划中国南水北调中线工程河南段的水资源配置，考虑了4种（λ=0.7、0.8、0.9、1.0）不同可信度下的配水方案，评价了2016、2020、2025和2030年的水资源?经济社会?环境系统的和谐水平. 结果表明:IFCBP模型中区间-模糊双重不确定性可引起水资源分配、污染物排放和系统效益的变化；双层模型较好地权衡了系统排污量和经济效益的冲突；规划年比现状年的和谐水平更高，呈现逐年增加的趋势. 研究结果可以帮助决策者解决水资源需求、经济目标和生态环境改善的矛盾. 

Water resources allocation and harmony evaluation - case of uncertain Bi-level planning

With intensifying imbalance between supply and demand of water resources, it is essential to optimize models of allocation for water resources, in line with economic development, population growth and urban expansion. Interval Fuzzy Credibility Constrained Bi-level Programming (IFCBP) was developed to optimize allocation of water resources; harmonious evaluation method was used to quantify harmony degree of water resources-economic social-environment system before and after configuration (current year and planning year). In the model interval values and fuzzy sets were used to process uncertain information to plan water resource allocation at the Henan section of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, four water distribution schemes with different credibility (λ=0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0) were considered. Level of harmony for water, economic, social and environmental systems in 2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 was evaluated. Interval-fuzzy double uncertainty in IFCBP model was found to lead to changes in water resource allocation, pollutant discharge, and system benefits. Two-layer model better balanced conflict between system emissions and economic benefit. This work could help decision makers to resolve conflicts between water demand, economic goals, and ecological improvements.