| 在校大学生数量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭怀祖,王建宏. 在校大学生数量预测研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2012, 42(18): 147-153 |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭怀祖 王建宏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南通大学教育科学学院,江苏南通,226007
2. 南通大学理学院,江苏南通,226007 |
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| 基金项目： | 全国教育科学规划教育部重点项目，教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 高等教育规模的预测是重要的基础性工作,在校大学生数量是规模的首要因素,而决定大学生数量的要点是适龄人口和毛入学率.基于人口推算模型对未来10年的18-22岁适龄人口数进行计算,利用灰色系统模型对高等教育毛入学率进行预测,在此基础上,将毛入学率的定义式与适龄人口数推算法相结合,推导出用于计算在校大学生数量的毛入学率与适龄人口的乘积模型,计算结果表明,模型对我国2010-2020年的在校大学生数量规模具有良好的预测效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 高等教育规模 在校大学生数量 适龄人口 毛入学率 |
University Student's Amount Predicts Research |
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| PENG Huai-zu , WANG Jian-hong. University Student's Amount Predicts Research[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2012, 42(18): 147-153 |
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| Authors: | PENG Huai-zu WANG Jian-hong |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Educate College of science,Nantong University,Nantong 226007,China) (2.School of Science,Nantong University,Nantong 226007,China) |
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| Abstract: | The estimate of higher education scale is count for much foundation work.University student's amount is the initial factor of scale.Deciding the important point of university student's amount is school-age population and gross enrollment ratio of higher education. Based on the calculation model of population,we calculate the school-age population in the range from 18 to 22 in the next 10 years.By using grey system,the gross enrollment rate of advanced education can be forecasted.Then,a product model of gross enrollment rate and school-age population is deduced to predict the university student's amount by combining the definition formula of gross enrollment ratio with the calculate way of school-age population. The numerical results of university student's amount from 2010 to 2020 demonstrate that the product model is efficient. |
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| Keywords: | Advanced education scale university student's amount gross enrollment rate school-age population |
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