A Behavioral Interpretation of Belief Functions |
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Authors: | Timber Kerkvliet Ronald Meester |
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Institution: | 1.VU University Amsterdam,Amsterdam,The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | Shafer’s belief functions were introduced in the seventies of the previous century as a mathematical tool in order to model epistemic probability. One of the reasons that they were not picked up by mainstream probability was the lack of a behavioral interpretation. In this paper, we provide such a behavioral interpretation and re-derive Shafer’s belief functions via a betting interpretation reminiscent of the classical Dutch Book Theorem for probability distributions. We relate our betting interpretation of belief functions to the existing literature. |
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