| 潜伏期变化的随机流行病模型及其贝叶斯推断 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘芳,叶鹰,魏晟,李琼.潜伏期变化的随机流行病模型及其贝叶斯推断[J].数学理论与应用,2006,26(2):74-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘芳 叶鹰 魏晟 李琼 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中科技大学数学系 武汉430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文讨论了潜伏期和传染期均服从威布尔分布、易感性随机变化的一类随机流行病模型,并利用M CM C算法对潜伏期、传染期的参数和易感性的超参数作了贝叶期推断.这种分析方法比以往各种方法更适用于各类疾病.
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| 关 键 词： | 流行病 随机流行病模型 贝叶斯推断 MCMC算法 |
| 收稿时间： | 11 10 2005 12:00AM |
Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic model with varied latent periods |
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| Liu Fang ,Ye Ying, Wei Sheng, Li Qiong.Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic model with varied latent periods[J].Mathematical Theory and Applications,2006,26(2):74-77. |
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| Authors: | Liu Fang Ye Ying Wei Sheng Li Qiong |
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| Institution: | Department of Mathematics ,Huanzhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,430074 |
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| Abstract: | A stochastic epidemic model featuring Weibull-distributed latent periods and infectious periods and randomly varying heterogeneity among susceptible is considered.A Junkov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed for performing Bayesian inference for the parameters governing the latent-periods length,the infectious-periods length and the hyper-parameters governing the heterogeneity of susceptibility.This method of analysis applies to a wider class of diseases than methods proposed previously. |
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| Keywords: | Epidemics Stochastic epidemic models Bayesian inference MCMC methods |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
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