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Limit theorems for sums determined by branching and other exponentially growing processes
Authors:Peter Jagers  Olle Nerman
Institution:Department of Mathematics, Chalmers University of Technology, S-40220 Goteborg, Sweden
Abstract:A branching process counted by a random characteristic has been defined as a process which at time t is the superposition of individual stochastic processes evaluated at the actual ages of the individuals of a branching population. Now characteristics which may depend not only on age but also on absolute time are considered. For supercritical processes a distributional limit theorem is proved, which implies that classical limit theorems for sums of characteristics evaluated at a fixed age point transfer into limit theorems for branching processes counted by these characteristics. A point is that, though characteristics of different individuals should be independent, the characteristics of an individual may well interplay with the reproduction of the latter. The result requires a sort of Lp-continuity for some 1 ? p ? 2. Its proof turns out to be valid for a wider class of processes than branching ones.For the case p = 1 a number of Poisson type limits follow and for p = 2 some normality approximations are concluded. For example results are obtained for processes for rare events, the age of the oldest individual, and the error of population predictions.This work has been supported by a grant from the Swedish Natural Science Research Council.
Keywords:60J80  60J85  branching process  population rare event  prediction
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