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| 组合预测方法在黑龙江垦区大豆产量预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 于晓秋,葛家麒,刘长海. 组合预测方法在黑龙江垦区大豆产量预测中的应用[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2007, 37(24): 27-32 |
| 作者姓名： | 于晓秋 葛家麒 刘长海 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 黑龙江八一农垦大学,文理院,黑龙江,大庆,163319 2. 东北农业大学,理学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150030 3. 黑龙江省嫩江县九三局科研所,黑龙江,嫩江,161441 |
| 摘 要： | 首先建立了黑龙江垦区九三地区的大豆单产的Logistic模型,通过梯度法得出模型的参数估计值,并对模型进行了分析.其次,再利用逐步回归方法建立了大豆产量与气象因子的逐步回归模型,确定了影响九三地区大豆产量的主要气象因子,最后运用组合预测和最优权数计算的方法,建立了九三地区大豆产量的组合预测模型,进一步提高了模型的精度,这对指导大豆生产具有重要意义. |
| 关 键 词： | 黑龙江 大豆 Logistic模型 逐步回归 组合预测模型 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-05-09 |
The Applications of the Method of the Combination Forecasting in the Forecasting of Soybean Yield in Heilongjiang Reclamation Area |
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| YU Xiao-qiu,GE Jia-qi,LIU Chang-hai. The Applications of the Method of the Combination Forecasting in the Forecasting of Soybean Yield in Heilongjiang Reclamation Area[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2007, 37(24): 27-32 | |
| Authors: | YU Xiao-qiu GE Jia-qi LIU Chang-hai |
| Abstract: | At first,the Logistic model of soybean yield is established in HeiLongjiang Jiusan area,by Newton method the parameters is solved,by analyzing the model we get more information.Second,stepwise regression model of soybean yield and meteorological factors is established,main meteorological factors that influence soybean yield in Jiusan area are found.In the end,by the combination forecasting and optimumal weight number combination forecasting model is established and precision is recreased.This is very important for guidance soybean produce. |
| Keywords: | heilongjiang soybean logistic model stepwise regression combination forecasting model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |