Near-threshold reflectivity fluctuations in the independent-convective-hot-spot-model limit of a spatially smoothed laser beam

In the framework of the independent-hot-spot model, it is shown that the reflectivity resulting from scattering instabilities when a spatially smoothed laser beam interacts with a plasma exhibits large statistical fluctuations near threshold. The importance of the fluctuations is discussed in terms of a confidence interval for the reflectivity, which is more relevant to experimental measurements than the average reflectivity. An analytical model for the fluctuating reflectivity is developed and shown to be in good agreement with numerical simulations. The influence of the transverse size of the interaction region is studied.