Neuro-fuzzy approach for short-term electricity price forecasting developed MATLAB-based software |
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Authors: | M Esfahani |
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Institution: | 1.Department of Electrical Engineering,Islamic Azad University, Khomeinishahr Branch,Esfahan,Iran |
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Abstract: | Bid and offer competition is a main transaction approach in deregulated electricity markets. Locational marginal prices (LMP)
resulting from bidding competition determine electricity prices at a node or in an area. The LMP exhibits important information
for market participants to develop their bidding strategies. Moreover, LMP is also a vital indicator for a Security Coordinator
to perform market redispatch for congestion management. This paper presents a method using modular feed forward neural networks
(FFNN) and fuzzy inference system (FIS) for forecasting LMPs. FFNN is used to forecast the electricity prices in a short time
horizon and FIS to forecast the prices of special days. FFNN system includes an autocorrelation method for selecting parameters
and methods for data preprocessing and preparing historical data to train the artificial neural network (ANN). In this paper,
the historical LMPs of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland (PJM) market are used to test the proposed method. It is found
that the proposed neuro-fuzzy method is capable of forecasting LMP values efficiently. In addition, MATLAB-based software
is designed to test and use the proposed model in different markets and environments. This is an efficient tool to study and
model power markets for price forecasting. It is included with a database management system, data classifier, input variable
selection, FFNN and FIS configuration and report generator in custom formats. |
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