| 高速公路交通事故灰色Verhulst预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 鄢勇飞,朱顺应,王红,朱凯,王延峰,辛文慧.高速公路交通事故灰色Verhulst预测模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(7). |
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| 作者姓名： | 鄢勇飞 朱顺应 王红 朱凯 王延峰 辛文慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉理工大学交通学院,湖北,武汉,430063 |
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| 摘 要： | 在分析我国高速公路交通事故历史数据的基础上,引入灰色Verhulst预测理论,建立了高速公路交通事故灰色Verhulst预测模型.通过对2000～2007年我国高速公路交通事故死亡人数进行实例分析,发现灰色Verhulst模型的预测精度高于GM(1,1)模型.结果表明,灰色Verhulst模型的预测结果较好的反映了高速公路交通事故的发展趋势,该模型用于高速公路交通事故预测是可行的.
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| 关 键 词： | 高速公路 交通事故 灰色预测 灰色Verhulst模型 |
Grey Verhulst Prediction Model of Freeway Traffic Accidents |
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| YAN Yong-fei,ZHU Shun-ying,WANG Hong,ZHU Kai,WANG Yan-feng,XIN Wen-hui.Grey Verhulst Prediction Model of Freeway Traffic Accidents[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2009,39(7). |
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| Authors: | YAN Yong-fei ZHU Shun-ying WANG Hong ZHU Kai WANG Yan-feng XIN Wen-hui |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of analyzing of our freeway traffic accidents data,introducing grey Verhulst prediction theory,the paper establishes the grey Verhulst prediction model of freeway traffic accidents.Through an example of death toll of our freeway traffic accidents in 2000～2007,the analysis finds that the grey Verhulst model has more forecast precision than the GM (1,1) model.The analysis results show that the prediction of grey Verhulst model reflects the development trend of freeway traffic accidents much better,and it's feasible to apply the model to the prediction of freeway traffic accidents. |
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| Keywords: | freeway traffic accidents grey prediction grey Verhulst model |
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