The labyrinth of experts' minds: Some reasoning strategies and their pitfalls

A conceptual framework is proposed for understanding and analysing the cognitive processes involved in the intuitive generation of scenarios. Four stages are distinguished: The activation of relevant problem knowledge, the constitution of a mental model, the simulation of the mental model, and the selection of inferences. The approach is illustrated with examples from a project on the future impacts of new information and communication technology on private life.This contribution is largely based on a paper entitled The use of causal knowledge for inferential reasoning, published in: J.L. Mumpower, L.D. Phillips, O. Renn & V.R.R. Uppuluri (eds.),Expert Judgment and Expert Systems (Springer, New York, 1987).