基于集对分析理论的污染减排预警评价模型及改进应用

我国在"十二五"期间继续推行减排政策,目标污染物在原有COD和SO₂基础上新增NH₃—N和NO_x. 为促进减排监督管理顺利进行,督促各省市减排目标的完成,深入分析各地区社会经济和工业运行等因素对减排目标实施的影响,首先建立了基于社会、经济、能源、环境复合系统的减排预警指标体系;随后运用集对分析理论和方法,对各地区4大污染物在"十二五"末期的减排形势进行了预测评价及预警分析;此外,鉴于新疆、西藏等地区的污染排放与其它省份存在一定差异的实际情况,对评价模型进行了改进应用;最后,运用GIS软件将减排预警评价结果进行地图图形展示,以便于污染物减排监督管理工作的开展. 

Evaluation Model of Early Warning for Pollution Emission Reduction Management Based on Set Pair Analysis Method and Improved Application

The supervision and management of the reducing emission of total amount of major pollutants has made certain achievement in our country during the period of "Eleventh Five Years". NH₃—N and NO_x, which based on the original new target pollutants COD and SO₂, were added with continuing to implement the emission reduction policies in the period of "Twelfth Five Years". In order to promote the supervision and management of the emission reduction progress successfully, urge the completion of the provincial reduction targets, and analyze the influence of regional social economy, industrial operation and other factors on the implementation of emission reduction targets, the pollutant emission reduction warning index system was established, which was based on the composite systems of social, economic, energy, environment. Then, by using Set Pair Analysis theory and method, the evaluation model can get the forecast evaluation and early warning analysis on the situation of the four major pollutants emission reduction at the end of "Twelfth Five Years". In addition, the application of the early warning model was improved according to the actual situation of pollutants emission of Xinjiang, Tibet and other regions where have some differences from other provinces. Finally, the warning evaluation results of the emission reduction will be shown clearly by using the GIS soft ware in order to develop the supervision and management of emission reduction.