New hybrid Cartesian cut cell/enriched multipoint flux approximation approach for modelling and quantification of structural uncertainties in petroleum reservoirs

Efficient and profitable oil production is subject to make reliable predictions about reservoir performance. However, restricted knowledge about reservoir rock and fluid properties and its geometrical structure calls for history matching in which the reservoir model is calibrated to emulate the field observed history. Such an inverse problem yields multiple history‐matched models, which might result in different predictions of reservoir performance. Uncertainty quantification narrows down the model uncertainties and boosts the model reliability for the forecasts of future reservoir behaviour. Conventional approaches of uncertainty quantification ignore large‐scale uncertainties related to reservoir structure, while structural uncertainties can influence the reservoir forecasts more significantly compared with petrophysical uncertainty. Quantification of structural uncertainty has been usually considered impracticable because of the need for global regridding at each step of history matching process. To resolve this obstacle, we develop an efficient methodology based on Cartesian cut cell method that decouples the model from its representation onto the grid and allows uncertain structures to be varied as a part of history matching process. Reduced numerical accuracy due to cell degeneracies in the vicinity of geological structures is adequately compensated with an enhanced scheme of a class of locally conservative flux continuous methods (extended enriched multipoint flux approximation method or extended EMPFA). The robustness and consistency of the proposed hybrid Cartesian cut cell/extended EMPFA approach are demonstrated in terms of true representation of geological structures influence on flow behaviour. Significant improvements in the quality of reservoir recovery forecasts and reservoir volume estimation are presented for synthetic model of uncertain structures. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.