Optimal operation of hydrothermal systems with Hydrological Scenario Generation through Bootstrap and Periodic Autoregressive Models |
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Authors: | Reinaldo Castro Souza André Luı´s Marques Marcato Bruno Henriques Dias Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira |
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Institution: | 1. Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil;2. Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;3. Fluminense Federal University, Niterói, Brazil |
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Abstract: | In electrical power systems with strong hydro generation, the use of adequate techniques to generate synthetic hydrological scenarios is extremely important for the evaluation of the ways the system behaves in order to meet the forecast energy demand. This paper proposes a new model to generate natural inflow energy scenarios in the long-term operation planning of large-sized hydrothermal systems. This model is based on the Periodic Autoregressive Model, PAR (p), where the identification of the p orders is based on the significance of the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) estimated via Bootstrap, an intensive computational technique. The scenarios generated through this new technique were applied to the operation planning of the Brazilian Electrical System (BES), using the previously developed methodology of Stochastic Dynamic Programming based on Convex Hull algorithm (SDP-CHull). The results show that identification via Bootstrap is considerably more parsimonious, leading to the identification of lower orders models in most cases which retains the statistical characteristics of the original series. Additionally it presents a closer total mean operation cost when compared to the cost obtained via historic series. |
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Keywords: | OR in energy Long-term operation planning Periodic model Bootstrap Stochastic Dynamic Programming |
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