上证A股指数的分形统计分析--一种新的分析范式

本文介绍了传统证券分析方法所面临的理论和实践的挑战,简明地介绍了分形分析方法的基本理论和应用范围及特点。并采用该方法对我国上海证券交易所A股指数进行了深入分析,指出了上证A股指数具有较强的持续性,不是一个独立的随机游走过程。同时还实证了上证A股指数是分形的。本文还发现了上证A股指数具有12个月、16个月、20个月、23个月、31个月的周期。

An Fractal Statistical Analysis on A Stock Index in Shanghai

This article first gives out the challenge to the theory and practice that faced with traditional stock analysis method, then introduces the basic theory, application scope, and characteristic of the fractal analysis method. Based on this method, analyzes the model of Shanghai stock exchange A section share index thoroughly, pointing out that it has quite strong persistence, not being a unattached random walk process. Besides, the paper finds that the model has twelve months, sixteen months, twenty months, twenty-three months and thirty-one months cycle.